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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
19 days ago · 100% complete

ATI Inc.

ATI NYSE Categories PDF
Industrials · Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication
Dallas, TX 75201, United States IPO 1999 atimaterials.com Updated Jun 7, 5:09pm
Price
$177.47
Market Cap
$24.2B
Employees
7,800
Beta
0.98
Avg Volume
1,906,269
CEO
Kimberly A. Fields
Business Description

ATI Inc. manufactures and sells specialty materials and components worldwide. The company operates in two segments: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). The HPMC segment produces various materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, advanced powder alloys and other specialty materials, in long product forms, such as ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes and rectangles, and seamless tubes, as well as precision forgings, components, and machined parts. The segment serves aerospace and defense, medical, and energy markets. The AA&S segment produces zirconium and related alloys, including hafnium and niobium, nickel-based alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and specialty alloys in a variety of forms, such as plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. It also provides hot-rolling conversion services, including carbon steel products, and titanium products. This segment offers its solutions to the energy, aerospace and defense, automotive, and electronics markets. The company was formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. ATI Inc. was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:11pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:09pm (19d ago)
$177.47
-3.63 (-2.00%)
Day Range
$175.81 – $182.50
52-Week Range
$70.42 – $183.30
50-Day MA
$157.67
200-Day MA
$120.69
Volume
1,267,573.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $141.00
Consensus $175.00
High $194.00
(26 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 136,470,427.00
Float 134,927,206.00
Free Float 98.9%
High free float — 98.9% of shares trade freely, ~1.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:11pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
56.68
Stock Price: $177.47
EPS (Diluted): 2.92
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
8.96
Stock Price: $177.47
Total Equity: $1.80B
Shares: 141,800,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
30.34
Market Cap: $24.22B
Total Debt: $1.86B
Cash: $416.70M
EBITDA: $812.10M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$17.7B
Market Cap: $24.22B
Total Debt: $1.86B
Cash: $416.70M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
21.8%
Gross Profit: $999.80M
Revenue: $4.59B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
13.8%
Operating Income: $634.70M
Revenue: $4.59B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
8.8%
Net Income: $404.30M
Revenue: $4.59B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
24.2%
Net Income: $404.30M
Total Equity: $1.80B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
12.9%
Operating Income: $634.70M
Tax Rate: 19.9%
Equity: $1.80B
Total Debt: $1.86B
Cash: $416.70M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.66
Current Assets: $2.68B
Current Liabilities: $1.01B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.03
Short-Term Debt: $53.40M
Long-Term Debt: $1.81B
Total Debt: $1.86B
Total Equity: $1.80B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$32.35
Revenue: $4.59B
Shares: 141,800,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$12.73
Total Equity: $1.80B
Shares: 141,800,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.35
Operating CF: $614.30M
CapEx: -$280.60M
Shares: 141,800,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $177.47
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $404.30M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:11pm
Compares ATI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:14:13 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.8B $3.8B $4.2B $4.4B $4.6B
Cost of Revenue $2.5B $3.1B $3.3B $3.4B $3.6B
Gross Profit $334.0M $714.2M $826.3M $913.5M $999.8M
Operating Expenses $216.4M $398.1M $359.9M $304.6M $365.1M
Operating Income $117.6M $316.1M $466.4M $608.9M $634.7M
Net Income $184.6M $323.5M $410.8M $367.8M $404.3M
EBITDA $492.5M $678.5M $539.1M $670.7M $812.1M
EPS $1.45 $2.54 $3.21 $2.82 $2.92
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:11pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $687.7M $584.0M $743.9M $721.2M $416.7M
Total Current Assets $2.3B $2.5B $2.7B $2.9B $2.7B
Total Assets $4.3B $4.4B $5.0B $5.2B $5.1B
Current Liabilities $856.4M $963.9M $977.1M $1.2B $1.0B
Long-Term Debt $1.7B $1.7B $2.1B $1.7B $1.8B
Total Liabilities $3.5B $3.3B $3.5B $3.3B $3.2B
Total Equity $685.6M $1.0B $1.4B $1.9B $1.8B
Retained Earnings $72.7M -$480.9M -$70.1M $64.3M $468.7M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $16.1M $224.9M $85.9M $407.2M $614.3M
Capital Expenditure -$152.6M -$130.9M -$200.7M -$239.1M -$280.6M
Free Cash Flow -$136.5M $94.0M -$114.8M $168.1M $333.7M
Acquisitions (net) $53.1M $300,000 $-300,000 $48.0M $26.8M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$4.8M -$145.6M -$96.4M -$286.0M -$504.1M
Net Change in Cash $41.8M -$103.7M $159.9M -$22.7M -$304.5M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:09pm (19d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $5.5B
$5.4B – $5.6B
$5.8B
$5.8B – $5.8B
$6.2B
$6.1B – $6.3B
$6.4B
$6.3B – $6.5B
EBITDA $886.6M
$871.9M – $912.6M
$949.4M
$948.4M – $950.5M
$1.0B
$993.9M – $1.0B
$1.0B
$1.0B – $1.1B
Net Income $734.7M
$720.7M – $804.9M
$839.7M
$813.4M – $920.2M
$1.0B
$987.2M – $1.0B
$999.7M
$980.7M – $1.0B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +37.0% +8.8% +4.5% +5.2%
Gross Profit Growth +113.8% +15.7% +10.6% +9.4%
Operating Income Growth +168.8% +47.5% +30.6% +4.2%
Net Income Growth +75.2% +27.0% -10.5% +9.9%
EBITDA Growth +37.8% -20.5% +24.4% +21.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-22 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 13,269.00 $202.48 $2.7M
2026-06-23 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 3,641.00 $197.48 $719,025
2026-06-24 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 3,783.00 $197.21 $746,045
2026-06-02 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 25,823.00 $177.97 $4.6M
2026-06-02 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 13,865.00 $179.05 $2.5M
2026-06-02 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 13,164.00 $179.71 $2.4M
2026-06-02 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 1,896.00 $180.80 $342,797
2026-06-02 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 2,000.00 $181.90 $363,800
2026-06-02 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 3,001.00 $182.75 $548,433
2026-05-19 Sharma Ruby A-Award 905.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Morehouse David J A-Award 1,743.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Lydon-Rodgers Jean A-Award 905.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Lund Elizabeth Hefley A-Award 905.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Kah Marianne A-Award 905.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Hess David P A-Award 905.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Corvi Carolyn A-Award 905.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Carlisle Herbert J A-Award 905.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 BALL M LEROY A-Award 905.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-11 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 1,300.00 $154.02 $200,226
2026-05-11 Fields Kimberly A S-Sale 5,568.00 $156.29 $870,223
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:09pm (19d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2016-08-16 $0.08 2016-08-05 2016-08-18 2016-09-08
2016-05-25 $0.08 2016-05-09 2016-05-27 2016-06-09
2016-03-09 $0.08 2016-02-26 2016-03-11 2016-03-24
2015-12-17 $0.08 2015-12-11 2015-12-21 2015-12-30
2015-08-17 $0.18 2015-07-31 2015-08-19 2015-09-16
2015-05-22 $0.18 2015-05-04 2015-05-27 2015-06-17
2015-03-09 $0.18 2015-02-26 2015-03-11 2015-03-25
2014-12-12 $0.18 2014-12-05 2014-12-16 2014-12-24
2014-08-18 $0.18 2014-07-31 2014-08-20 2014-09-17
2014-06-03 $0.18 2014-05-01 2014-06-05 2014-06-18
2014-03-10 $0.18 2014-02-27 2014-03-12 2014-03-26
2013-12-18 $0.18 2013-12-13 2013-12-20 2013-12-27
2013-08-19 $0.18 2013-08-02 2013-08-21 2013-09-18
2013-05-20 $0.18 2013-05-02 2013-05-22 2013-06-19
2013-03-11 $0.18 2013-02-28 2013-03-13 2013-03-27
2012-12-13 $0.18 2012-12-06 2012-12-17 2012-12-28
2012-09-17 $0.18 2012-09-07 2012-09-19 2012-09-28
2012-05-25 $0.18 2012-05-14 2012-05-30 2012-06-20
2012-03-12 $0.18 2012-02-24 2012-03-14 2012-03-28
2011-12-16 $0.18 2011-12-12 2011-12-20 2011-12-29
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ATI — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 17:14:50
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Overvalued — fair value $90–110 reflecting real specialty-alloy quality, but $177 prices in flawless execution through 2028; insider distribution and flat sequential revenue argue for trimming, with a re-entry zone below $120.

The raw numbers tell a respectable but unspectacular story: revenue grew from $2.80B (2021) to $4.59B (2025), a ~13% CAGR mostly back-loaded into the aerospace recovery, but the most recent four quarters are flat-lining around $1.14–1.18B with no sequential acceleration. Net income TTM is roughly $425M, putting trailing P/E near 57x on a $24.2B cap. Gross margin has expanded meaningfully — from 11.9% (2021) to 21.8% (2025) — and operating margin sits at 13.8%, which is real and durable-looking for specialty alloys. But FCF of $334M on a $24B EV is a 1.4% FCF yield, and capex is running $280M against $614M operating cash flow, meaning roughly 46% reinvestment intensity. This is a good business at a demanding price, not a great business at any price.

I largely agree with the synthesis verdict's *direction* but think the magnitude is absurd. A $24 DCF fair value implies ATI is worth less than one year's revenue, which ignores both the 21.8% gross margin trajectory and the genuinely defensible position in nickel superalloys and titanium for engine hot sections — businesses with multi-year qualification moats that the narrative layer correctly identifies. The "fallen-angel" archetype tag is wrong; this is a cyclical-quality re-rating, not a redemption arc. The narrative engine claiming "85% of valuation is story" is overstated — strip the story out and you still have a $4.6B revenue business with 14% operating margins growing high-single-digits, which is worth meaningfully more than $24/share. My back-of-envelope: 25x normalized earnings of ~$400M = $10B, or roughly $73/share. Even generous — 20x EV/EBITDA on ~$800M EBITDA = $16B EV, ~$118/share. The stock at $177 is still 50%+ above any defensible anchor.

The contrarian case for holding here: aerospace OEM backlogs at Boeing and Airbus stretch 8-10 years, GTF engine durability issues are driving outsized demand for replacement hot-section parts (ATI's sweet spot), and defense titanium demand from hypersonics and submarines is structural through 2030. If gross margins push to 25% and revenue compounds 8% for three years, you get to ~$5.8B revenue and ~$700M net income by 2028 — at 30x that's $210/share, justifying today's price. But that requires *everything* to break right, and the quarterly trajectory doesn't support it: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.15B is barely above Q4 2024's $1.17B, suggesting the aerospace ramp is plateauing, not accelerating. The 10.3% net margin in Q1 2026 is the highest in the dataset, but on flat revenue — margin-driven earnings beats are running out of room without volume.

The insider selling on 2026-06-02 — six separate sales totaling ~60,000 shares clustered on one day — is a tell. Combined with the "Poor Cash Flow Quality" flag (NI of $404M vs FCF of $334M isn't egregious but reflects working capital absorption that suggests earnings quality is softer than reported), and the fact that the stock has run 152% from $70, this looks like late-cycle distribution. The data gap on total debt is annoying — without it I can't verify EV/EBITDA of 30x, but if debt is $1.5-2B as I'd estimate from prior filings, the multiple is real and rich. I dissent from the $24 fair value as numerically unserious but firmly agree the stock is overvalued; fair value is $90-110, not $24 and not $177. The asymmetry here is unattractive: 40% downside to fundamental anchor vs. ~20% upside if the narrative holds another year. Insider behavior tells you which side of that distribution to bet on.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 17:14:56
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Claude Opus — overvalued at $177.47, but I'd peg fair value closer to $90, reflecting more conservative growth assumptions and potential cyclical downturns.

In reviewing ATI Inc.'s financial data, my independent analysis suggests an intriguing but concerning picture. Revenue growth from $2.80B in 2021 to $4.59B in 2025 indicates a robust expansion, primarily driven by the aerospace sector's recovery. However, recent quarterly figures show a plateau, with revenues hovering around $1.14 to $1.18 billion, signaling potential stagnation. The gross margin improvement from 11.9% to 21.8% over this period is impressive, yet the net margin remains modest at 10.3% in Q1 2026, underscoring the challenge of translating revenue into profitability. The P/E ratio of 56.682 suggests a high valuation compared to earnings, highlighting investor optimism that might not align with the flat revenue growth trend.

I find Claude Opus's analysis well-grounded in several respects. I agree with his assertion that ATI is overvalued at its current price of $177.47. Opus states, "The stock at $177 is still 50%+ above any defensible anchor," and I concur, given the flat sequential revenue and demanding valuation multiples. The 1.4% free cash flow yield on a $24B EV is indeed low, and the reinvestment intensity of 46% through capex further strains cash flows. Opus rightly questions the narrative-driven valuation, arguing that the fundamental value of ATI's business does not justify the current market price. I also agree with his skepticism regarding the geopolitical narrative that has significantly inflated ATI's stock, particularly since the valuation seems heavily reliant on external factors like government defense spending, which are inherently volatile.

However, I diverge from Opus's view on the magnitude of the overvaluation. While Opus assigns a fair value range of $90-$110, my analysis leans towards the lower end of that spectrum, considering the lack of growth momentum and the operational challenges in sustaining margins without revenue growth. The insider selling activity on June 2, 2026, further supports a cautious stance, as it could indicate management's lack of confidence in the current valuation levels.

A careful skeptic might argue that the aerospace backlog and defense sector demand could provide a buffer against the downside, potentially justifying a higher valuation than what I propose. They might also point to the strategic importance of ATI's niche in high-performance alloys as a mitigating factor for the high P/E ratio. Nonetheless, these arguments seem overly reliant on optimistic assumptions about future growth and geopolitical stability, both of which are uncertain.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30