Business Description
ATI Inc. manufactures and sells specialty materials and components worldwide. The company operates in two segments: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). The HPMC segment produces various materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, advanced powder alloys and other specialty materials, in long product forms, such as ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes and rectangles, and seamless tubes, as well as precision forgings, components, and machined parts. The segment serves aerospace and defense, medical, and energy markets. The AA&S segment produces zirconium and related alloys, including hafnium and niobium, nickel-based alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and specialty alloys in a variety of forms, such as plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. It also provides hot-rolling conversion services, including carbon steel products, and titanium products. This segment offers its solutions to the energy, aerospace and defense, automotive, and electronics markets. The company was formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. ATI Inc. was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:11pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:09pm (19d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.92
Total Equity: $1.80B
Shares: 141,800,000
Total Debt: $1.86B
Cash: $416.70M
EBITDA: $812.10M
Total Debt: $1.86B
Cash: $416.70M
Revenue: $4.59B
Revenue: $4.59B
Revenue: $4.59B
Total Equity: $1.80B
Tax Rate: 19.9%
Equity: $1.80B
Total Debt: $1.86B
Cash: $416.70M
Current Liabilities: $1.01B
Long-Term Debt: $1.81B
Total Debt: $1.86B
Total Equity: $1.80B
Shares: 141,800,000
Shares: 141,800,000
CapEx: -$280.60M
Shares: 141,800,000
Stock Price: $177.47
Net Income: $404.30M
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | $3.8B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.5B | $3.1B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $3.6B |
| Gross Profit | $334.0M | $714.2M | $826.3M | $913.5M | $999.8M |
| Operating Expenses | $216.4M | $398.1M | $359.9M | $304.6M | $365.1M |
| Operating Income | $117.6M | $316.1M | $466.4M | $608.9M | $634.7M |
| Net Income | $184.6M | $323.5M | $410.8M | $367.8M | $404.3M |
| EBITDA | $492.5M | $678.5M | $539.1M | $670.7M | $812.1M |
| EPS | $1.45 | $2.54 | $3.21 | $2.82 | $2.92 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:11pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $687.7M | $584.0M | $743.9M | $721.2M | $416.7M |
| Total Current Assets | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $2.7B |
| Total Assets | $4.3B | $4.4B | $5.0B | $5.2B | $5.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $856.4M | $963.9M | $977.1M | $1.2B | $1.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.7B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $1.7B | $1.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $3.5B | $3.3B | $3.5B | $3.3B | $3.2B |
| Total Equity | $685.6M | $1.0B | $1.4B | $1.9B | $1.8B |
| Retained Earnings | $72.7M | -$480.9M | -$70.1M | $64.3M | $468.7M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $16.1M | $224.9M | $85.9M | $407.2M | $614.3M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$152.6M | -$130.9M | -$200.7M | -$239.1M | -$280.6M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$136.5M | $94.0M | -$114.8M | $168.1M | $333.7M |
| Acquisitions (net) | $53.1M | $300,000 | $-300,000 | $48.0M | $26.8M |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$4.8M | -$145.6M | -$96.4M | -$286.0M | -$504.1M |
| Net Change in Cash | $41.8M | -$103.7M | $159.9M | -$22.7M | -$304.5M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:09pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$5.5B $5.4B – $5.6B
|
$5.8B $5.8B – $5.8B
|
$6.2B $6.1B – $6.3B
|
$6.4B $6.3B – $6.5B
|
| EBITDA |
$886.6M $871.9M – $912.6M
|
$949.4M $948.4M – $950.5M
|
$1.0B $993.9M – $1.0B
|
$1.0B $1.0B – $1.1B
|
| Net Income |
$734.7M $720.7M – $804.9M
|
$839.7M $813.4M – $920.2M
|
$1.0B $987.2M – $1.0B
|
$999.7M $980.7M – $1.0B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +37.0% | +8.8% | +4.5% | +5.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +113.8% | +15.7% | +10.6% | +9.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | +168.8% | +47.5% | +30.6% | +4.2% |
| Net Income Growth | +75.2% | +27.0% | -10.5% | +9.9% |
| EBITDA Growth | +37.8% | -20.5% | +24.4% | +21.1% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 13,269.00 | $202.48 | $2.7M |
| 2026-06-23 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 3,641.00 | $197.48 | $719,025 |
| 2026-06-24 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 3,783.00 | $197.21 | $746,045 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 25,823.00 | $177.97 | $4.6M |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 13,865.00 | $179.05 | $2.5M |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 13,164.00 | $179.71 | $2.4M |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 1,896.00 | $180.80 | $342,797 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 2,000.00 | $181.90 | $363,800 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 3,001.00 | $182.75 | $548,433 |
| 2026-05-19 | Sharma Ruby | A-Award | 905.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Morehouse David J | A-Award | 1,743.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lydon-Rodgers Jean | A-Award | 905.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lund Elizabeth Hefley | A-Award | 905.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kah Marianne | A-Award | 905.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hess David P | A-Award | 905.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Corvi Carolyn | A-Award | 905.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Carlisle Herbert J | A-Award | 905.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-19 | BALL M LEROY | A-Award | 905.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 1,300.00 | $154.02 | $200,226 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fields Kimberly A | S-Sale | 5,568.00 | $156.29 | $870,223 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:09pm (19d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-08-16 | $0.08 | 2016-08-05 | 2016-08-18 | 2016-09-08 |
| 2016-05-25 | $0.08 | 2016-05-09 | 2016-05-27 | 2016-06-09 |
| 2016-03-09 | $0.08 | 2016-02-26 | 2016-03-11 | 2016-03-24 |
| 2015-12-17 | $0.08 | 2015-12-11 | 2015-12-21 | 2015-12-30 |
| 2015-08-17 | $0.18 | 2015-07-31 | 2015-08-19 | 2015-09-16 |
| 2015-05-22 | $0.18 | 2015-05-04 | 2015-05-27 | 2015-06-17 |
| 2015-03-09 | $0.18 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-03-11 | 2015-03-25 |
| 2014-12-12 | $0.18 | 2014-12-05 | 2014-12-16 | 2014-12-24 |
| 2014-08-18 | $0.18 | 2014-07-31 | 2014-08-20 | 2014-09-17 |
| 2014-06-03 | $0.18 | 2014-05-01 | 2014-06-05 | 2014-06-18 |
| 2014-03-10 | $0.18 | 2014-02-27 | 2014-03-12 | 2014-03-26 |
| 2013-12-18 | $0.18 | 2013-12-13 | 2013-12-20 | 2013-12-27 |
| 2013-08-19 | $0.18 | 2013-08-02 | 2013-08-21 | 2013-09-18 |
| 2013-05-20 | $0.18 | 2013-05-02 | 2013-05-22 | 2013-06-19 |
| 2013-03-11 | $0.18 | 2013-02-28 | 2013-03-13 | 2013-03-27 |
| 2012-12-13 | $0.18 | 2012-12-06 | 2012-12-17 | 2012-12-28 |
| 2012-09-17 | $0.18 | 2012-09-07 | 2012-09-19 | 2012-09-28 |
| 2012-05-25 | $0.18 | 2012-05-14 | 2012-05-30 | 2012-06-20 |
| 2012-03-12 | $0.18 | 2012-02-24 | 2012-03-14 | 2012-03-28 |
| 2011-12-16 | $0.18 | 2011-12-12 | 2011-12-20 | 2011-12-29 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
The raw numbers tell a respectable but unspectacular story: revenue grew from $2.80B (2021) to $4.59B (2025), a ~13% CAGR mostly back-loaded into the aerospace recovery, but the most recent four quarters are flat-lining around $1.14–1.18B with no sequential acceleration. Net income TTM is roughly $425M, putting trailing P/E near 57x on a $24.2B cap. Gross margin has expanded meaningfully — from 11.9% (2021) to 21.8% (2025) — and operating margin sits at 13.8%, which is real and durable-looking for specialty alloys. But FCF of $334M on a $24B EV is a 1.4% FCF yield, and capex is running $280M against $614M operating cash flow, meaning roughly 46% reinvestment intensity. This is a good business at a demanding price, not a great business at any price.
I largely agree with the synthesis verdict's *direction* but think the magnitude is absurd. A $24 DCF fair value implies ATI is worth less than one year's revenue, which ignores both the 21.8% gross margin trajectory and the genuinely defensible position in nickel superalloys and titanium for engine hot sections — businesses with multi-year qualification moats that the narrative layer correctly identifies. The "fallen-angel" archetype tag is wrong; this is a cyclical-quality re-rating, not a redemption arc. The narrative engine claiming "85% of valuation is story" is overstated — strip the story out and you still have a $4.6B revenue business with 14% operating margins growing high-single-digits, which is worth meaningfully more than $24/share. My back-of-envelope: 25x normalized earnings of ~$400M = $10B, or roughly $73/share. Even generous — 20x EV/EBITDA on ~$800M EBITDA = $16B EV, ~$118/share. The stock at $177 is still 50%+ above any defensible anchor.
The contrarian case for holding here: aerospace OEM backlogs at Boeing and Airbus stretch 8-10 years, GTF engine durability issues are driving outsized demand for replacement hot-section parts (ATI's sweet spot), and defense titanium demand from hypersonics and submarines is structural through 2030. If gross margins push to 25% and revenue compounds 8% for three years, you get to ~$5.8B revenue and ~$700M net income by 2028 — at 30x that's $210/share, justifying today's price. But that requires *everything* to break right, and the quarterly trajectory doesn't support it: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.15B is barely above Q4 2024's $1.17B, suggesting the aerospace ramp is plateauing, not accelerating. The 10.3% net margin in Q1 2026 is the highest in the dataset, but on flat revenue — margin-driven earnings beats are running out of room without volume.
The insider selling on 2026-06-02 — six separate sales totaling ~60,000 shares clustered on one day — is a tell. Combined with the "Poor Cash Flow Quality" flag (NI of $404M vs FCF of $334M isn't egregious but reflects working capital absorption that suggests earnings quality is softer than reported), and the fact that the stock has run 152% from $70, this looks like late-cycle distribution. The data gap on total debt is annoying — without it I can't verify EV/EBITDA of 30x, but if debt is $1.5-2B as I'd estimate from prior filings, the multiple is real and rich. I dissent from the $24 fair value as numerically unserious but firmly agree the stock is overvalued; fair value is $90-110, not $24 and not $177. The asymmetry here is unattractive: 40% downside to fundamental anchor vs. ~20% upside if the narrative holds another year. Insider behavior tells you which side of that distribution to bet on.
GPT Critique
In reviewing ATI Inc.'s financial data, my independent analysis suggests an intriguing but concerning picture. Revenue growth from $2.80B in 2021 to $4.59B in 2025 indicates a robust expansion, primarily driven by the aerospace sector's recovery. However, recent quarterly figures show a plateau, with revenues hovering around $1.14 to $1.18 billion, signaling potential stagnation. The gross margin improvement from 11.9% to 21.8% over this period is impressive, yet the net margin remains modest at 10.3% in Q1 2026, underscoring the challenge of translating revenue into profitability. The P/E ratio of 56.682 suggests a high valuation compared to earnings, highlighting investor optimism that might not align with the flat revenue growth trend.
I find Claude Opus's analysis well-grounded in several respects. I agree with his assertion that ATI is overvalued at its current price of $177.47. Opus states, "The stock at $177 is still 50%+ above any defensible anchor," and I concur, given the flat sequential revenue and demanding valuation multiples. The 1.4% free cash flow yield on a $24B EV is indeed low, and the reinvestment intensity of 46% through capex further strains cash flows. Opus rightly questions the narrative-driven valuation, arguing that the fundamental value of ATI's business does not justify the current market price. I also agree with his skepticism regarding the geopolitical narrative that has significantly inflated ATI's stock, particularly since the valuation seems heavily reliant on external factors like government defense spending, which are inherently volatile.
However, I diverge from Opus's view on the magnitude of the overvaluation. While Opus assigns a fair value range of $90-$110, my analysis leans towards the lower end of that spectrum, considering the lack of growth momentum and the operational challenges in sustaining margins without revenue growth. The insider selling activity on June 2, 2026, further supports a cautious stance, as it could indicate management's lack of confidence in the current valuation levels.
A careful skeptic might argue that the aerospace backlog and defense sector demand could provide a buffer against the downside, potentially justifying a higher valuation than what I propose. They might also point to the strategic importance of ATI's niche in high-performance alloys as a mitigating factor for the high P/E ratio. Nonetheless, these arguments seem overly reliant on optimistic assumptions about future growth and geopolitical stability, both of which are uncertain.