Made on
Sep 4, 2026
Price at call
$327.25
6-month call
Bull +7.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$352.00
Great value below
$280.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.6% to $352.00
Predicted High
$352.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$329.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 4, 2026 1:01 pm
Bull
AXP trends higher to
$352.00
(+7.6% from $327.25)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisAXP is a quality compounder trading modestly below composite fair value ($342) with a supportive risk-on tape and beat history. Expect a gradual grind higher toward fair value over 6 months, with early consolidation before value gravity takes hold; Q3 earnings in mid-October should provide a mild positive catalyst given 4-of-5 beat cadence.
Invalidated ifBreak below $305 support, or a Q3 earnings miss on credit metrics/spend growth would falsify the upward drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $327.25 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 4, 2026 | — | $327.25 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 18, 2026 | $311.44–$343.06 typical range · internal point $329.50 | — | ±4.8% | 6/10 | Mild drift on risk-on tape, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $311.17 on Sep 17, 2026 = -4.9% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.6 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±4.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 4, 2026 | $304.34–$350.16 typical range · internal point $336.00 | — | ±7.0% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, prior beat cadence |
| What actually happened: closed $302.78 on Oct 2, 2026 = -7.5% vs the call (predicted +2.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $342.00 | — | +4.5% | 5/10 | Post-earnings lift toward composite fair value |
| 3 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $345.00 | — | +5.4% | 4/10 | Year-end quality bid, consumer spend seasonality |
| 4 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $343.00 | — | +4.8% | 4/10 | January consolidation, macro rate uncertainty |
| 5 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $349.00 | — | +6.6% | 3/10 | Value gravity toward DCF anchor |
| 6 months | Mar 4, 2027 | $352.00 | — | +7.6% | 3/10 | Grind toward signal-adjusted fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $348.90 (+6.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $327.25 |
| Composite fair value | $342.28 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $373.18 |
| DCF fair value | $342.28 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $280.00 |
| Value net score | -3 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +67 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.3% 3m 24.2% 6m 23.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.99 3m 0.74 5m 0.86 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 7.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 31d behind | AXP-20260803-000636-408a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-AXP-20260903-232913-934a |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-AXP-20260903-232913-934a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-AXP-20260903-232913-934a |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-AXP-20260903-232913-934a |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | AXP-20260903-230002-113f |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | AXP-20260903-230002-113f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.