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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 26, 2026
1 day ago · 100% complete · +9 refreshed

American Express Company

AXP NYSE Categories PDF
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services
New York City, NY 10285, United States IPO 1972 americanexpress.com Updated Jun 26, 3:06am
Price
$342.46
Market Cap
$233.7B
Employees
75,100
Beta
1.06
Avg Volume
3,101,498
CEO
Stephen Joseph Squeri
Business Description

Operating globally, American Express Company and its affiliated entities deliver a comprehensive suite of charge and credit payment card solutions, alongside a variety of travel-related offerings. Its business structure is organized into three primary divisions: the Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. Among its core offerings are diverse payment and financing instruments, robust network infrastructure services, tools for managing accounts payable expenses, and comprehensive travel and lifestyle support. Furthermore, it facilitates merchant services such as acquisition, transaction processing, settlement, and point-of-sale marketing, providing vital information and assistance to businesses. The company also specializes in fraud mitigation and developing and managing customer loyalty initiatives. These products and services are made available to a broad clientele, encompassing individual consumers, small and mid-sized enterprises, and large corporate entities. Distribution channels include digital platforms (mobile and online applications), collaborations with third-party vendors and partners, direct communication methods like mail and telephone, dedicated internal sales forces, and direct response advertising campaigns. Established in 1850, American Express Company maintains its corporate headquarters in New York, New York.

Business History
Generated: Jun 26, 2026 3:10am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:06am (1d ago)
$342.46
-0.10 (-0.03%)
Day Range
$340.92 – $352.52
52-Week Range
$288.34 – $387.49
50-Day MA
$320.37
200-Day MA
$337.71
Volume
2,105,355.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $322.00
Consensus $374.73
High $415.00
(105 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 682,326,443.00
Float 679,991,080.00
Free Float 99.7%
High free float — 99.7% of shares trade freely, ~0.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:13am (1d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:13am (1d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:09am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
20.94
Stock Price: $342.46
EPS (Diluted): 15.41
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
7.68
Stock Price: $342.46
Total Equity: $33.47B
Shares: 696,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.73
Market Cap: $233.67B
Total Debt: $57.76B
Cash: $47.71B
EBITDA: $15.57B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$267.2B
Market Cap: $233.67B
Total Debt: $57.76B
Cash: $47.71B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
83.2%
Gross Profit: $66.97B
Revenue: $80.46B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
17.1%
Operating Income: $13.80B
Revenue: $80.46B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
13.5%
Net Income: $10.83B
Revenue: $80.46B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
33.9%
Net Income: $10.83B
Total Equity: $33.47B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
8.9%
Operating Income: $13.80B
Tax Rate: 21.5%
Equity: $33.47B
Total Debt: $57.76B
Cash: $47.71B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.28
Current Assets: $48.53B
Current Liabilities: $170.81B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.73
Short-Term Debt: $1.37B
Long-Term Debt: $56.39B
Total Debt: $57.76B
Total Equity: $33.47B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$115.61
Revenue: $80.46B
Shares: 696,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$48.09
Total Equity: $33.47B
Shares: 696,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$22.99
Operating CF: $18.43B
CapEx: -$2.43B
Shares: 696,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.9%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $342.46
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $10.83B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:09am
Compares AXP against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-26 03:24:29
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
AXP is a genuine high-quality compounder (quality +100) trading at fair value (-19, no margin of safety), so I hold what I own and wait for a better price.
The cruxWhether the affluent consumer holds up - that's what determines if today's ~19-20x multiple sticks or re-rates down to the $285 zone where I actually want to back up the truck.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from AXP's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+100
Strong
edge √Σ 163 · risk √Σ 52 · conf 8/10

Revenue compounded from 44.4B in 2021 to 80.5B in 2025 (about 16% CAGR) while net income grew from 8.1B to 10.8B and FCF averaged roughly 15B per year. Operating margin has stabilized in the 15-17% band after the post-2021 mix shift, and OCF/NI of 1.99x with accruals at -3.5% of assets signals high earnings integrity - reported profits are backed by cash. Diluted shares fell from 790M to 696M (about -3.1% CAGR) with buyback spend at roughly 12x SBC, so per-share value is being concentrated rather than diluted. The balance sheet looks levered on the surface (net debt 9.2B, Altman Z 0.58), but the Z-score is largely inapplicable to a card issuer/lender where customer receivables and funding debt structurally inflate liabilities; 48.5B of liquid assets and 16B annual FCF make the firm comfortably self-funding. The closed-loop network, premium cardholder franchise, and high-spend customer base remain a real moat, evidenced by sustained revenue growth and pricing power through a rate cycle. Insider tape is benign - mostly director equity awards with one modest 2.4M sale; no distress or unusual selling cluster. Management behavior (consistent buybacks, growing dividends implied by share count discipline, stable margins) is consistent with a well-run mature earner.

Strengths 5
m80
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.99x and accruals at -3.5% of assets indicate conservative accounting; reported earnings are cash-backed.
m75
Per-share value concentration
Diluted share count fell from 790M (2021) to 696M (2025), -3.1% CAGR, with buyback-to-SBC ratio of 1205% - shareholders compound on a shrinking base.
m78
Durable revenue and earnings growth
Revenue grew 44.4B to 80.5B (16% CAGR) and net income from 8.1B to 10.8B over 2021-2025, signaling real franchise strength.
m70
Strong cash generation
FCF of 16B in 2025 on a 233B market cap, averaging ~15B/yr, comfortably funds buybacks, dividends, and operations without external capital.
m60
Premium network moat
Closed-loop card network and affluent cardholder base support pricing power; margins held in the 15-17% range despite scaling revenue ~80%.
Concerns 3
m35
Net debt position
Net debt of -9.2B and Altman Z 0.58 flagged - though largely a function of the lending business model (customer receivables financed by debt), not financial distress.
m30
Operating margin compression vs 2021
Op margin slid from 24.1% (2021) to 17.1% (2025), partly reflecting normalization of provisions and rewards costs as travel spend rebounded - worth monitoring for further erosion.
m25
Credit cycle exposure
As a lender, AXP carries provisioning and charge-off risk; FCF dipped from 17B (2023) to 12.1B (2024) before recovering, hinting at reserve build sensitivity.
This is a high-quality business. Earnings are real (OCF/NI ~2x, negative accruals), the share count is shrinking ~3% per year, and revenue has nearly doubled in four years with margins holding. The Altman Z 'distress' flag is a model artifact for a lender - the franchise is fundamentally robust with 48B liquid and 16B annual FCF. The only honest concerns are credit cycle sensitivity and the post-2021 margin step-down, neither of which threaten the franchise. Insider activity is unremarkable. Strong, not quite Fortress because it is a lender with cyclical credit risk - but as mature earners go, this is among the cleaner ones.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Net charge-off rate and reserve build trend in the latest 10-K to confirm credit quality
  • Card member receivables and loan growth vs revenue growth to ensure underwriting discipline
  • Funding mix (deposits vs unsecured debt) and liquidity coverage detail
  • Customer/segment concentration - share of revenue from top corporate and co-brand partners (e.g., Delta)
  • Buyback authorization remaining and capital return policy commentary
  • Margin guidance - whether 17% op margin is the new normal or temporary
Valuation / Mispricing
-19
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 46 · risk √Σ 65 · conf 7/10
Price $342 vs deserved ~$340-350 midpoint - essentially fair, ~0-3% gap, no margin of safety. attractive below $285.00

The e2e synthesis lands at 'Reasonable Premium' and that matches the math: at $342 and ~$234B market cap, AXP trades around 19-20x forward earnings and ~5-6x revenue, in line with its own 10-year average and a turn above large-cap financials. With ~16B FCF, the FCF yield is ~6.8%, which is fair-not-cheap for a mid-single-digit revenue grower compounding EPS in the low double digits via ~3%/yr buybacks. Deserved value, allowing a quality premium for clean earnings (OCF/NI ~2x) and the franchise moat, sits roughly in the $320-$370 zone, putting today's price squarely inside the band.

Cheap signals 2
m35
FCF yield ~6.8% with shrinking share count
~$16B FCF on $234B cap plus ~3%/yr buybacks gives a ~10% shareholder yield proxy - supportive, not a screaming bargain.
m30
Earnings quality justifies a premium
OCF/NI ~2x and negative accruals mean reported earnings are conservative; the deserved multiple is genuinely higher than an average lender's, narrowing the apparent richness.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
Multiple at the high end of its own range
~19-20x forward EPS and ~5-6x sales sit above AXP's long-run average and well above peer credit-card/financials, leaving little room for multiple expansion.
m40
Cyclical risk not discounted
Credit normalization, higher charge-offs, and funding costs are real bear-case items, yet the stock trades like a non-cyclical compounder. A credit hiccup would re-rate it down 15-20%.
m25
Bull case largely consensus
Premium-cardholder moat and millennial/Gen-Z mix shift are widely known and embedded in the multiple; the surprise vector is asymmetric to the downside.
I think AXP is fairly priced, not cheap. The business is genuinely high-quality and deserves a premium, but at $342 I'm paying for it - the FCF yield is decent and the buyback helps, but there's no cushion if credit normalizes faster than expected. I'd want it closer to $285 (a ~17% pullback, ~16-17x earnings) before this becomes interesting on valuation alone. Holding is fine; new money here is just a bet on continued execution at full price.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Forward EPS guide and billed-business growth trajectory
  • Net charge-off rate and reserve build trend vs guidance
  • Net interest margin and funding cost progression
  • Buyback pace and remaining authorization
  • Card-member acquisition costs and rewards expense per dollar of spend
General Sentiment
+5
Balanced
tail √Σ 76 · head √Σ 71 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is mildly negative (S&P off 3.3% from highs, 10y at 4.4%, VIX 18.9) but not stressed, and with a beta of 1.06 AXP only takes a market-average hit. Crucially, the active narrative here is 'steady compounder / Buffett favorite / affluent-consumer moat' - low intensity but durable - which acts as a sentiment shock absorber in a wobbly tape. There is no story breaking and no story igniting; the name is simply not where the marginal narrative dollar is going (that is AI/payments-disruption, where the news flow on Mastercard's AI pivot subtly reminds the market AXP is not the dynamic story).

Tailwinds 3
m55
Durable compounder narrative as shock absorber
The 'Buffett-favorite, affluent-skewed, recession-resistant moat' story is low-intensity but durable, which in a wobbly-but-not-broken tape keeps holders sticky and limits multiple compression on this specific name.
m40
Constructive idiosyncratic news flow
DFAST clearance supports continued buybacks/dividends, and the ABA SMB partnership plus NFL deal reinforce the network-expansion angle - small but uniformly positive headlines with no offsetting negative surprises.
m35
Strong price momentum into a soft tape
Stock printed +1.4% on a down market day, signaling defensive bid; with beta only 1.06 and an affluent-consumer halo, AXP is being treated as a relative safe-haven within financials.
Headwinds 4
m45
'Is the affluent consumer cracking?' drumbeat
Multiple recent pieces question whether AmEx's affluent-cushion thesis holds if the consumer rolls over. This plants a slow-burn cyclical doubt that caps upside enthusiasm even without breaking the story.
m35
Analyst tone is flat and uncommitted
Consensus Hold, zero revisions this month, and only a ~9% target premium signal the sell side sees no near-term catalyst - a sentiment ceiling, not a floor.
m30
Narrative dollars flowing elsewhere
The market's storytelling energy is on AI-payments (Mastercard, fintech disruption). AXP's steady-compounder archetype is durable but unfashionable, so it gets no narrative tailwind even as peers' stories evolve.
m30
Macro tape mildly negative, rates sticky
10y at 4.4% and S&P off recent highs is a low-grade drag on all equities; with beta 1.06 AXP takes roughly market-average pressure - present but not punishing.
Net read: this is a sentiment-neutral name with a slight defensive tilt. The macro tape is mildly negative but AXP's durable compounder narrative and affluent-consumer halo are doing real work as a shock absorber - you can see it in the +1.4% print on a red day. The offsets are real though: the 'affluent consumer crack' drumbeat is a slow-burn doubt, analysts are uncommitted, and all the narrative energy in payments is going to AI-disruption stories where AXP has no seat at the table. I lean Balanced with a hair of tailwind from the moat story and momentum, but there is no force here strong enough to move the stock against fundamentals in either direction. Sentiment is not the lens that matters for this name right now.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Q2 earnings: any softening in affluent cardholder spend or credit metrics that would crack the 'affluent cushion' narrative
  • Whether VIX breaks above 22 or S&P drawdown deepens - would shift defensive bid into broader risk-off for cyclicals
  • Analyst revision activity post-DFAST and post-earnings - silence so far is a soft headwind
  • Any narrative pivot tying AXP into AI/agentic-payments theme that would inject fresh story intensity
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:13:08 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:13am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $44.4B $55.6B $67.4B $74.2B $80.5B
Cost of Revenue -$136.0M $4.9B $11.8B $13.4B $13.5B
Gross Profit $44.6B $50.7B $55.6B $60.8B $67.0B
Operating Expenses $33.9B $41.1B $45.1B $47.9B $53.2B
Operating Income $10.7B $9.6B $10.5B $12.9B $13.8B
Net Income $8.1B $7.5B $8.4B $10.1B $10.8B
EBITDA $12.4B $11.2B $12.2B $14.6B $15.6B
EPS $10.03 $9.85 $11.23 $14.04 $15.41
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:06am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $21.5B $33.5B $46.5B $40.6B $47.7B
Total Current Assets $27.2B $38.4B $48.7B $41.7B $48.5B
Total Assets $188.5B $228.4B $261.1B $271.5B $300.1B
Current Liabilities $99.0B $125.8B $145.6B $156.8B $170.8B
Long-Term Debt $38.7B $42.6B $47.9B $49.7B $56.4B
Total Liabilities $166.4B $203.6B $233.1B $241.2B $266.6B
Total Equity $22.2B $24.7B $28.1B $30.3B $33.5B
Retained Earnings $13.5B $16.3B $19.6B $22.1B $25.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:13am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $14.6B $21.1B $18.6B $14.1B $18.4B
Capital Expenditure -$1.6B -$1.9B -$1.6B -$1.9B -$2.4B
Free Cash Flow $13.1B $19.2B $17.0B $12.1B $16.0B
Acquisitions (net) $1.0M -$15.0M -$64.0M $140.0M -$633.0M
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks -$7.7B -$3.5B -$3.7B -$6.0B -$5.8B
Net Change in Cash -$10.9B $11.9B $12.7B -$6.0B $7.2B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:06am (1d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $86.5B
$85.1B – $87.3B
 $93.6B
$93.6B – $93.7B
 $103.0B
$101.7B – $103.9B
 $76.4B
$75.5B – $77.1B
EBITDA $18.2B
$17.9B – $18.4B
 $19.7B
$19.7B – $19.7B
 $21.6B
$21.4B – $21.8B
 $16.1B
$15.9B – $16.2B
Net Income $14.0B
$13.8B – $14.1B
 $16.0B
$15.1B – $16.9B
 $18.4B
$18.1B – $18.6B
 $19.7B
$19.3B – $19.9B
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:13am (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +25.2% +21.1% +10.1% +8.4%
Gross Profit Growth +13.7% +9.7% +9.3% +10.2%
Operating Income Growth -10.3% +9.7% +22.7% +7.0%
Net Income Growth -6.8% +11.4% +21.0% +7.0%
EBITDA Growth -9.5% +8.5% +19.8% +6.9%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:13am (1d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-15 McNeal Glenda G S-Sale 7,033.00 $339.36 $2.4M
2026-05-05 Young Christopher David A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 WARDELL LISA W A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Wallace Noel R. A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Quarles Randal K. A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Pike Lynn Ann A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 PHILLIPS JR CHARLES E A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 PARKHILL KAREN L A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Majoras Deborah P A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Leonsis Theodore A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Brennan John Joseph A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Baltimore Thomas J Jr A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Angelakis Michael J A-Award 742.12 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 Wallace Noel R. A-Award 121.19 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 Young Christopher David A-Award 133.72 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 WARDELL LISA W A-Award 125.36 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 VASELLA DANIEL A-Award 108.93 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 PHILLIPS JR CHARLES E A-Award 62.68 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 Majoras Deborah P A-Award 60.59 $0.00 $0
2026-03-31 Brennan John Joseph A-Award 221.48 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:06am (1d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-02 $0.95 2026-06-04 2026-07-02 2026-08-10
2026-04-02 $0.95 2026-03-02 2026-04-03 2026-05-08
2026-01-02 $0.82 2025-12-17 2026-01-02 2026-02-10
2025-10-10 $0.82 2025-09-24 2025-10-10 2025-11-10
2025-07-03 $0.82 2025-06-17 2025-07-03 2025-08-08
2025-04-04 $0.82 2025-03-03 2025-04-04 2025-05-09
2025-01-03 $0.70 2024-12-12 2025-01-03 2025-02-10
2024-10-04 $0.70 2024-09-24 2024-10-04 2024-11-08
2024-07-05 $0.70 2024-05-07 2024-07-05 2024-08-09
2024-04-04 $0.70 2024-03-06 2024-04-05 2024-05-10
2024-01-04 $0.60 2023-12-07 2024-01-05 2024-02-09
2023-10-05 $0.60 2023-09-26 2023-10-06 2023-11-10
2023-07-06 $0.60 2023-05-03 2023-07-07 2023-08-10
2023-04-05 $0.60 2023-03-08 2023-04-07 2023-05-10
2023-01-05 $0.52 2022-12-07 2023-01-06 2023-02-10
2022-10-13 $0.52 2022-09-28 2022-10-14 2022-11-10
2022-06-30 $0.52 2022-05-04 2022-07-01 2022-08-10
2022-04-07 $0.52 2022-03-10 2022-04-08 2022-05-10
2022-01-06 $0.43 2021-12-08 2022-01-07 2022-02-10
2021-10-07 $0.43 2021-09-28 2021-10-08 2021-11-10
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for AXP — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-26 03:13:43
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued, not a bargain — fair value $315-$355 range, current $342 leaves no margin of safety; hold existing, add only below $310 or after a credit-cycle scare.

Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue went $18.40B → $18.78B → $19.22B → $18.93B → $19.93B → $20.56B → $21.04B → $20.88B. That's not decelerating — that's a clean step-up through 2025 with a normal Q1 seasonal dip. YoY Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 is +10.3%, actually accelerating from the +8.4% the model flags as "recent." Net income margins are bouncing in a tight 11-15% band, with Q1 2026 at 14.2% — healthy, no deterioration. Full-year 2025 revenue of $80.46B is +8.4% over 2024, NI $10.83B is +6.9%. FCF of $16B on $233B market cap is a 6.9% FCF yield, and the FCF CAGR of -3% is misleading because 2021 was an outlier reserve-release year — strip that and FCF growth is solidly positive. So the underlying business is fine, arguably better than the synthesis is crediting.

Where I push back on the prior models: the "Market Forces" call of "cyclical peak with unsustainable cash flow dynamics and aggressive insider selling" is overstated. A single 7,033-share sale on 6/15/2026 against a sea of routine awards is not "aggressive insider selling" — at $342 that's $2.4M, a rounding error for AXP insiders and consistent with normal tax/diversification. Calling FCF "unsustainable" while the company prints $18.4B operating CF on $80B revenue (23% OCF margin) needs more support than the model offers. Conversely, the synthesis verdict of "Reasonable Premium" at 22x P/E for 8-9% revenue growth and high-teens earnings growth is roughly right but undersells the quality: ROE of 34% is genuinely elite, and the closed-loop network economics mean AXP keeps more of each dollar than V/MA partners do. 22x for a 34% ROE compounder with pricing power isn't a premium — it's market multiple for above-market quality.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously is credit normalization plus affluent-consumer rollover. AXP's thesis depends on its cardholders being recession-resistant; if unemployment in the $150K+ income cohort finally cracks (it hasn't in 40 years meaningfully), provisions could spike and the 14% net margin compresses to 10-11%. At that margin on flat revenue, EPS drops ~25% and the multiple re-rates — you'd see $260-280. Second contrarian point: the "closed-loop moat" narrative is partially myth in 2026 — merchant acceptance gap vs Visa has closed, and AXP's growth increasingly comes from lending (interest income), which means it's becoming more bank-like and deserves a more bank-like multiple (12-15x), not a network multiple (25x+). The current 22x sits awkwardly between those poles and only resolves favorably if international + small business keep growing 10%+.

Data gaps that matter: the balance sheet tile shows no total debt and no total equity, which for a financial is the whole game — I can't independently verify the 34% ROE or assess leverage trends. Current ratio of 0.28 is meaningless for a bank-like entity, so ignore it. The TTM-tagged ratios are fine to use directionally but I'd want to see net interest margin, charge-off rates, and reserve coverage — none provided. The "decelerating quarterly trend" flag in Revenue Confidence is wrong on my read of the sequence. Net: I agree with the synthesis verdict directionally — AXP is fairly valued to modestly rich, not a bargain and not a short. At $342, fair value on 20x forward EPS of ~$16 is $320; on 22x it's $352. So you're paying roughly fair for quality with limited margin of safety. The asymmetric risk is credit normalization, not narrative collapse. I would not chase here; I'd add on a 10-12% pullback toward $305 where the risk/reward improves materially.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-26 03:13:49
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I diverge from Opus slightly — AXP is fairly valued at $342, with a justified premium due to strong ROE and sustainable cash flow; the fair value range is $330-$360, considering its competitive advantages.

Analyzing American Express (AXP) from the raw data, the company has shown consistent revenue growth, with quarterly revenues moving from $18.40 billion in June 2024 to $20.88 billion in March 2026. This indicates a robust growth trajectory, with a recent year-over-year revenue increase of 8.4%. Net income margins remain stable, hovering between 11% and 15%, with the latest margin at 14.2%. The annual revenue growth from 2024 to 2025 stood at 8.4%, and net income grew by 6.9%, reflecting resilience in its business model. The free cash flow yield of 6.9% relative to its market cap is healthy, supporting the company's financial strength. However, the negative FCF CAGR of -3% is a concern, albeit potentially misleading due to an anomalous year. With a high ROE of 34%, AXP effectively leverages its equity, underscoring its operational efficiency.

Claude Opus's analysis highlights several points of agreement and disagreement. I concur with Opus's assertion that the "decaying quarterly trend" in revenue confidence is incorrect; the revenue growth sequence is indeed upward, not decelerating. Additionally, I agree with the skepticism toward labeling recent insider activity as "aggressive selling." A single insider sale of 7,033 shares does not substantiate aggressive selling, especially given the routine nature of the awards. Furthermore, Opus correctly challenges the synthesis verdict that suggests a "cyclical peak with unsustainable cash flow dynamics," as AXP's operating cash flow margin of 23% on an $80 billion revenue base is quite sustainable.

Where I diverge from Opus is on the valuation perspective. While Opus sees AXP as fairly valued between $315 and $355, I believe the 22x P/E ratio is justified by the company's robust ROE of 34% and its closed-loop network that ensures higher margins compared to its peers. This premium is not excessive given the quality of earnings and the competitive advantage AXP holds. The thesis that AXP should be valued similarly to banks due to its lending focus seems premature, as its business model still benefits from unique network economics that differentiate it from traditional banks.

A careful skeptic might argue that despite the robust ROE and strong cash flows, the reliance on high-income consumer resilience could pose risks, particularly if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Additionally, the narrative that AXP's competitive moat is eroding as it shifts towards more bank-like operations could imply a need for revaluation at a lower multiple if lending becomes the primary growth driver.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30