Made on
Aug 2, 2026
Price at call
$169.64
6-month call
Bear -7.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$157.50
Great value below
$145.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.2% to $157.50
Predicted High
$169.90
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$157.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 2, 2026 12:41 am
Bear
AZN trends lower to
$157.50
(-7.2% from $169.64)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisAZN trades meaningfully above composite fair value ($132) with a negative value net and weak recent momentum, but a defensive low-beta profile, mild sentiment tailwind from EU oncology approval, and no near-term earnings catalyst suggest gradual value gravity rather than a sharp de-rate. Expect a slow drift lower toward the DCF/anchored-PE band over 6 months.
Invalidated ifA break above $178 on positive pipeline news, or a break below $150 signaling faster mean-reversion to fair value
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $169.64 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 2, 2026 | — | $169.64 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 16, 2026 | $159.16–$180.12 typical range · internal point $169.90 | — | ±6.2% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift in neutral tape, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $156.45 on Aug 14, 2026 = -7.8% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 2, 2026 | $154.46–$184.82 typical range · internal point $168.50 | — | ±8.9% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind fades, mild value gravity begins |
| What actually happened: closed $162.47 on Sep 1, 2026 = -4.2% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±8.9%: inside the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 2, 2026 | $165.80 | — | -2.3% | 5/10 | Overvaluation pressure builds without new catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $157.70 on Oct 1, 2026 = -7.0% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $163.00 | — | -3.9% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward DCF anchor near 154 |
| 4 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $161.50 | — | -4.8% | 4/10 | Defensive bid cushions decline into year-end |
| 5 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $159.00 | — | -6.3% | 4/10 | Post-holiday repositioning, value lens still negative |
| 6 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $157.50 | — | -7.2% | 3/10 | Approaches anchored-PE band as fair value asserts |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $167.67 (-1.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $169.64 |
| Composite fair value | $132.40 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $136.62 |
| DCF fair value | $154.03 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $148.32 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $145.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +55 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.0% 3m 31.0% 6m 28.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.55 3m -0.14 5m 0.23 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -8.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | AZN-20260802-000311-0a62 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZN-20260802-002813-f59f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZN-20260802-002813-f59f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZN-20260802-002813-f59f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZN-20260802-002813-f59f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | AZN-20260802-000311-0a62 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | AZN-20260802-000311-0a62 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $169.64 | $157.50 | -7.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 25, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $183.02 | $180.41 | -1.4% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.