Homepage
FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 25, 2026
2 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

AstraZeneca PLC

AZN NYSE Categories PDF
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Cambridge, CB2 0AA, United Kingdom IPO 1993 astrazeneca.com Updated Jun 25, 3:02am
Price
$183.02
Market Cap
$283.8B
Employees
94,300
Beta
0.21
Avg Volume
1,965,845
CEO
Pascal Claude Roland Soriot
Business Description

AstraZeneca PLC operates as a global biopharmaceutical leader, dedicated to the entire process of bringing prescription medicines to market, from their initial discovery and development through manufacturing and commercialization. The company's extensive portfolio of treatments, including prominent examples like Tagrisso, Farxiga, and Symbicort, addresses critical areas such as cardiovascular, renal, metabolic, and oncological conditions. Furthermore, it provides essential solutions for COVID-19 and various rare diseases, with products like Vaxzevria and Soliris. AstraZeneca engages with primary and specialty care physicians worldwide, facilitating distribution through a robust network of representatives and local offices across the United Kingdom, continental Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa, and Australasia. The firm actively drives innovation through strategic collaborations, partnering with entities such as Neurimmune AG for the development and commercialization of NI006, BenevolentAI for systemic lupus erythematosus drug discovery, Lunit for AI-powered digital pathology risk assessment in NSCLC, and Absci Corporation for AI-driven oncology target identification. Founded in 1992, the company was initially known as Zeneca Group PLC, subsequently rebranding to AstraZeneca PLC in April 1999, and maintains its headquarters in Cambridge, United Kingdom.

Business History
Generated: Jun 25, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)
$183.02
+2.00 (+1.10%)
Day Range
$182.20 – $184.63
52-Week Range
$137.22 – $212.71
50-Day MA
$185.67
200-Day MA
$182.65
Volume
1,762,499.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $158.00
Consensus $186.67
High $216.00
(11 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,550,862,203.00
Float 1,541,208,530.00
Free Float 99.4%
High free float — 99.4% of shares trade freely, ~0.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:07am (2d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:04am (2d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 25, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
26.99
Stock Price: $183.02
EPS (Diluted): 6.60
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
5.59
Stock Price: $183.02
Total Equity: $48.67B
Shares: 1,562,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
15.04
Market Cap: $283.84B
Total Debt: $27.90B
Cash: $5.71B
EBITDA: $19.83B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$296.0B
Market Cap: $283.84B
Total Debt: $27.90B
Cash: $5.71B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
81.9%
Gross Profit: $48.11B
Revenue: $58.74B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
23.4%
Operating Income: $13.74B
Revenue: $58.74B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
17.5%
Net Income: $10.26B
Revenue: $58.74B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
22.4%
Net Income: $10.26B
Total Equity: $48.67B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
12.9%
Operating Income: $13.74B
Tax Rate: 17.5%
Equity: $48.67B
Total Debt: $27.90B
Cash: $5.71B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.94
Current Assets: $28.72B
Current Liabilities: $30.62B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.57
Short-Term Debt: $3.19B
Long-Term Debt: $24.72B
Total Debt: $27.90B
Total Equity: $48.67B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$37.60
Revenue: $58.74B
Shares: 1,562,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$31.16
Total Equity: $48.67B
Shares: 1,562,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.55
Operating CF: $14.58B
CapEx: -$5.91B
Shares: 1,562,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.8%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $183.02
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $10.26B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 25, 2026 3:01am
Compares AZN against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-25 03:09:20
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Great business at a rich price - quality 74 says own it, valuation -81 says not here, so I wait for $150s before doing real work.
The cruxWhether AZN derates into the $150s on any tape wobble or pipeline hiccup - that's the only path to a real position given the 30%+ gap between $183 spot and $134 composite fair value.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from AZN's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+74
Strong
edge √Σ 142 · risk √Σ 68 · conf 8/10

Revenue grew from 37.4B in 2021 to 58.7B in 2025 (about 12% CAGR), with gross margin expanding from 66.8% to 81.9% and operating margin stepping up from 2.8% to 23.4%. Net income scaled from 0.1B to 10.3B while FCF rose from 3.8B to 8.7B, indicating real operating leverage rather than accounting flattery. Earnings-quality checks back this up: accruals -5% of assets, OCF/NI 12.2x, Beneish M -2.33, Altman Z 3.63 (safe) - no mechanical red flags. Balance sheet is the soft spot: net debt of roughly 22B against only 5.7B liquid cash (cash/mktcap 2%), a legacy in part of the Alexion deal era. With 8.7B annual FCF this is comfortably serviceable, so debt is a constraint not a threat. Dilution is mild but persistent - diluted shares went from 1.43B to 1.56B (about 2.3% CAGR), a real per-share headwind, though SBC as a % of revenue is negligible. Insider tape shows only routine awards and a single 2.2M sale by one officer - no directional signal. Overall this reads as a well-run, durable large-cap pharma with strengthening profitability and clean earnings, not a fortress only because of the net debt load.

Strengths 5
m80
Major operating leverage
Operating margin expanded from 2.8% in 2021 to 23.4% in 2025 on 57% revenue growth; net income went from 112M to 10.26B - genuine scale economics, not one-offs.
m70
Clean earnings quality
Accruals -5% of assets, OCF/NI 12.2x, Beneish M -2.33, Altman Z 3.63. Mechanical forensic checks find nothing; reported profits are backed by cash.
m65
Gross margin expansion and stability
GM% climbed from 66.8% to 81.9% and has held above 81% for three years, consistent with strong pricing power and a favorable specialty/oncology mix.
m60
Reliable FCF generation
FCF of 8.67B in 2025, up from 3.76B in 2021; self-funding with positive cumulative FCF every year over the window.
m30
Neutral insider behavior
Only one 2.2M officer sale and routine awards in the tape - no cluster selling, no red flag, but no insider conviction buy signal either.
Concerns 2
m55
Net debt position
Net debt of about 22.2B vs. only 5.74B liquid cash (cash/mktcap 2%). Serviceable on 8.7B FCF but limits optionality and means the balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion.
m40
Persistent share count creep
Diluted shares grew from 1.43B to 1.56B (2.3% CAGR). Modest but a real per-share drag, and there is no offsetting buyback (buyback/SBC ratio 0%).
This looks like a genuinely strong, durable pharma franchise - margins expanding, cash conversion excellent, and the forensic checks come up clean. It is not a fortress because of the 22B net debt and the slow 2.3%/yr share creep with no buyback offset, both of which quietly tax per-share compounding. But as a business, AstraZeneca is firmly in the 'high-quality mature earner' bucket and the operating trajectory over five years is hard to argue with.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Pipeline concentration and patent cliff timing for top oncology and rare-disease franchises (Tagrisso, Farxiga, Soliris/Ultomiris).
  • Debt maturity ladder and weighted cost of debt to confirm the 22B net debt is comfortably termed out.
  • R&D capitalization vs. expensing policy and any non-GAAP adjustments behind the reported operating margin jump.
  • Recent M&A and licensing commitments that could increase leverage or share issuance.
  • Geographic and product concentration risk, especially China exposure and any pricing/reimbursement headwinds.
Valuation / Mispricing
-81
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 101 · conf 6/10
Price $183 vs deserved ~$134 composite (DCF $159 high end) - roughly 15-30% overvalued depending on how much pipeline credit you give. attractive below $150.00

The e2e composite pegs deserved value at $134 (signal-adjusted $129) against a $183 print - roughly 30-37% above fair. The DCF at $159 is the most generous credible input and still sits ~13% below price; the EPV floor of $73 confirms that a meaningful chunk of today's cap is pipeline/growth optionality rather than steady-state earnings. The anchored P/E of $147 corroborates the DCF read that the multiple has run ahead of the earnings stream.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality and clean earnings raise deserved value
Quality score 74 with clean accruals and expanding margins justifies a premium to EPV and arguably nudges deserved value toward the DCF $159 rather than the composite $134 - but still below $183.
Rich / priced-in 4
m65
Composite FV 30% below price
Signal-adjusted FV $128.98 vs $183.02 implies -30% downside; even the friendliest method (DCF $158.87) is 13% under spot.
m55
EPV floor $73 signals heavy growth premium
Steady-state earnings power supports only ~$73 - meaning ~60% of the share price is discounted future pipeline and franchise extension. Heroic if biosimilar/patent cliffs bite.
m45
Anchored P/E $147 confirms multiple stretch
A normalized PE anchor lands ~20% below price, suggesting the market multiple is above what comparable mature pharma earnings warrant.
m30
Net debt and silent dilution tax per-share value
$22B net debt plus ~2.3%/yr share creep with no buyback offset quietly erode the per-share compounding the multiple is paying for.
I am not paying $183 for a business whose composite fair value rounds to $134 and whose steady-state EPV is $73. Even being generous and anchoring on the $159 DCF, I am still buying ~13% above fair on a name where patent cliffs and biosimilar pressure are real tail risks. This is a great business at a full-to-rich price - the textbook setup where the quality lens scores high and the valuation lens has to say 'pass.' I want it nearer $150 (a hair under DCF) before it gets interesting, and closer to $130 to back up the truck.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Tagrisso and Farxiga LOE timing and biosimilar erosion curves
  • Pipeline NPV assumptions baked into DCF terminal growth
  • Forward operating margin guidance vs the expansion already in the model
  • M&A capital allocation - any large deal would reset the FV math
General Sentiment
+55
Tailwind
tail √Σ 113 · head √Σ 58 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is mildly cautious (S&P off 3.3%, VIX 18.6, 10y at 4.41%) but AZN's 0.21 beta means the tape barely registers here. In a neutral-to-jittery market, large-cap defensive pharma with durable cash flows tends to catch a bid as capital rotates away from high-beta tech (today's headlines literally show 'Wall Street tech sells off' while FTSE 100 grinds higher) - that rotation lands squarely in AZN's lap. The active narrative is platform-monopoly, strong intensity, durable - exactly the kind of story that holds up when risk appetite softens. News flow is constructive and on-message: Ultomiris label expansion in rare disease, a high-profile YMCA cancer-care partnership reinforcing the oncology halo, and inclusion in 'best weight-loss drug' lists keep AZN tied to multiple in-favor therapeutic narratives (oncology, rare disease, GLP-1 adjacency). Analyst tone is the one soft spot: Buy consensus but a meaningful Hold/Sell tail (15H/6S) and the target ($186.67) essentially pinned to spot - zero revisions this month. That signals the sell side sees the story as fully priced, capping near-term multiple expansion even as the narrative pressure stays positive.

Tailwinds 4
m60
Low-beta defensive bid
Beta 0.21 plus a neutral/soft tape and tech selling off favors rotation into large-cap defensive pharma; macro headwinds barely transmit to this name.
m65
Durable platform-monopoly narrative
Strong, durable narrative around oncology and specialty franchises is the kind of story that holds bid when risk appetite wavers - no cult froth to unwind.
m55
On-message news flow
Ultomiris expansion, the YMCA cancer-care partnership, and weight-loss-drug list mentions reinforce the oncology/rare-disease/GLP-1 narratives without any negative surprises.
m45
Strong price momentum intact
13.2% CAGR and improving leverage keep the tape under the stock; no technical break to feed a negative reflexive loop.
Headwinds 2
m50
Sell-side tone capped
Target $186.67 vs $183 spot with zero revisions this month and a fat Hold/Sell tail (21 not-Buys) suggests analysts see story as priced in - limits upside catalysts from estimate revisions.
m30
Rates backdrop for long-duration cash flows
10y at 4.41% is a mild drag on pharma DCFs broadly, but the low beta and defensive bid largely absorb it.
Net pressure on AZN is modestly positive. The tape is neutral-to-soft and that actually helps a 0.21-beta defensive pharma as money rotates out of tech; the platform-monopoly narrative is durable with no cult froth to deflate, and news flow this week is squarely on-message. The one real drag is sell-side tone - targets pinned to spot with no fresh upgrades say 'fairly valued, wait for a catalyst' - which caps how far sentiment alone can push the stock. I lean Tailwind, not Strong Tailwind, because the upside force is rotation-and-defense rather than a hot story bidding it higher.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any Tagrisso/Farxiga patent or biosimilar headlines that could crack the durability story
  • Sell-side target revisions post next oncology readout - silence here is the bigger risk than a downgrade
  • Whether the tech-to-defensive rotation persists or reverses on a VIX cool-down
  • Pipeline trial readouts that either validate or undercut the platform-monopoly narrative
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 25, 2026 3:06:17 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:04am (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $37.4B $44.4B $45.8B $54.1B $58.7B
Cost of Revenue $12.4B $12.4B $8.3B $10.2B $10.6B
Gross Profit $25.0B $32.0B $37.5B $43.9B $48.1B
Operating Expenses $23.9B $28.2B $29.4B $33.9B $34.4B
Operating Income $1.1B $3.8B $8.2B $10.0B $13.7B
Net Income $112.0M $3.3B $6.0B $7.0B $10.3B
EBITDA $5.1B $9.1B $13.4B $15.4B $19.8B
EPS $0.08 $2.12 $3.81 $2.27 $6.60
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $6.3B $6.2B $5.8B $5.5B $5.7B
Total Current Assets $26.2B $22.6B $25.1B $25.8B $28.7B
Total Assets $105.4B $96.5B $101.1B $104.0B $114.1B
Current Liabilities $22.6B $26.3B $30.5B $27.9B $30.6B
Long-Term Debt $28.1B $23.0B $22.4B $26.5B $24.7B
Total Liabilities $66.1B $59.4B $62.0B $63.2B $65.4B
Total Equity $39.3B $37.0B $39.1B $40.8B $48.7B
Retained Earnings $1.7B -$574.0M $4.5B $3.2B $11.0B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 2:57pm (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $6.0B $9.8B $10.3B $11.9B $14.6B
Capital Expenditure -$2.2B -$2.6B -$3.8B -$4.6B -$5.9B
Free Cash Flow $3.8B $7.2B $6.6B $7.3B $8.7B
Acquisitions (net) -$9.4B -$1.1B -$1.2B -$3.9B -$1.2B
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash -$1.5B -$55.0M -$346.0M -$208.0M $269.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $67.9B
$64.5B – $69.7B
$72.3B
$71.9B – $72.7B
$77.6B
$73.1B – $79.9B
$83.1B
$78.3B – $85.5B
EBITDA $35.2B
$33.4B – $36.1B
$37.5B
$37.3B – $37.7B
$40.2B
$37.9B – $41.4B
$43.1B
$40.6B – $44.3B
Net Income $14.1B
$10.4B – $20.0B
$16.1B
$15.0B – $22.6B
$23.6B
$21.8B – $24.5B
$26.4B
$24.4B – $27.4B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:04am (2d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +18.5% +3.3% +18.0% +8.6%
Gross Profit Growth +27.9% +17.5% +16.8% +9.7%
Operating Income Growth +255.8% +118.1% +22.1% +37.4%
Net Income Growth +2,835.7% +81.1% +18.1% +45.8%
EBITDA Growth +77.7% +47.7% +15.0% +28.4%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:04am (2d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-08 Sharma Mani A-Award 1.00 $179.75 $180
2026-05-20 Sharma Mani S-Sale 11,893.00 $185.78 $2.2M
2026-05-06 Sharma Mani A-Award 1.00 $186.28 $186
2026-04-07 Sharma Mani A-Award 1.00 $196.03 $196
2026-03-18 Sharma Mani 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Sharma Mani 2,996.31 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Sharma Mani 31.30 $0.00 $0
2028-12-01 Sharma Mani 195.00 $123.98 $24,176
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 2:57pm (2d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-02-20 $2.17 2026-02-10 2026-02-20 2026-03-23
2025-08-08 $0.52 2025-07-29 2025-08-08 2025-09-08
2025-02-21 $1.05 2025-02-06 2025-02-21 2025-03-24
2024-08-09 $0.50 2024-07-25 2024-08-09 2024-09-09
2024-02-22 $0.99 2024-02-08 2024-02-23 2024-03-25
2023-08-10 $0.47 2023-07-28 2023-08-11 2023-09-11
2023-02-23 $0.97 2023-02-09 2023-02-24 2023-03-27
2022-08-11 $0.46 2022-08-01 2022-08-12 2022-09-12
2022-02-24 $0.97 2022-02-10 2022-02-25 2022-03-28
2021-08-12 $0.44 2021-07-30 2021-08-13 2021-09-13
2021-02-25 $0.95 2021-02-12 2021-02-26 2021-03-29
2020-08-13 $0.44 2020-07-30 2020-08-14 2020-09-14
2020-02-27 $0.95 2020-02-18 2020-02-28 2020-03-30
2019-08-08 $0.45 2019-07-29 2019-08-09 2019-09-09
2019-02-28 $0.95 2019-02-14 2019-03-01 2019-03-27
2018-08-09 $0.45 2018-07-26 2018-08-10 2018-09-10
2018-02-15 $0.95 2018-02-02 2018-02-16 2018-03-19
2017-08-09 $0.45 2017-07-28 2017-08-11 2017-09-11
2017-02-15 $0.95 2017-02-02 2017-02-17 2017-03-20
2016-08-10 $0.45 2016-07-28 2016-08-12 2016-09-12
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for AZN — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-25 03:06:55
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly overvalued — fair value $160-170 versus $183; hold if owned, wait for sub-$165 or a Q2 2026 reacceleration print before adding.

Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue went $12.94B → $13.59B → $14.46B → $15.19B → $15.50B → $15.29B over six quarters, a clean ~18% YoY run rate at the recent end, decelerating slightly sequentially in the March 2026 quarter. Net income is lumpier — $1.43B, $1.50B, $2.92B, $2.45B, $2.53B, $2.33B, $3.08B — but the annual progression is unambiguous: NI went from $112M (2021) to $3.29B → $5.96B → $7.04B → $10.26B. That's a 4-year tripling of net income on a 57% revenue increase, meaning operating leverage is real: op margin went from 2.8% (2021) to 23.4% (2025). Gross margin sits at 82%, FCF $8.67B on $14.58B OCF. This is not a "mature earner" coasting — it's a business that's been re-rating its own earnings power.

So I disagree with the synthesis verdict that fair value is $128.98 (a 30% haircut). That model appears to anchor on a DCF with conservative terminal assumptions and treats the recent earnings ramp as cyclical rather than structural. At $183 and a $284B cap, AZN trades at ~28x trailing FCF and ~26x TTM earnings — for a business compounding earnings 31% CAGR with 82% gross margins and accelerating revenue, that's not obviously rich versus LLY (~35x), NVO (~22x post-derate), or MRK (~14x but with Keytruda cliff). The narrative model's framing — "$55B of premium beyond conservative fundamentals" — is more honest: it acknowledges the DCF is conservative. The thesis evaluator's "25.3% implied FCF growth" hurdle is the right way to frame it, and given trailing FCF CAGR is 14.9% and earnings CAGR is 31%, that hurdle is demanding but not absurd.

The contrarian case I'd actually press: pharma earnings inflections this sharp usually compress when (a) a blockbuster faces LOE, (b) FX tailwinds reverse — AZN reports in USD but earns globally, and the weak dollar through 2025 likely flattered the print, (c) the oncology pricing environment in the US softens under IRA negotiation expansion. Tagrisso faces composition-of-matter expiry around 2032 but generic erosion modeling typically starts pricing 3-4 years prior. Farxiga is already in IRA negotiation. The Q1 2026 sequential revenue dip ($15.50B → $15.29B) and the "decelerating" quarterly trend flag are the first cracks in the supercycle narrative — small, but worth watching. Current ratio of 0.94 and undisclosed total debt are mild concerns; a pharma with $5.7B cash and $8.7B FCF servicing what's likely $25-30B in net debt is fine, but not a fortress.

Insider activity is essentially noise — a single 11,893 share sale in May 2026 against tiny award grants tells me nothing, and the 2028-dated entry is a data error worth flagging. The "macro headwinds" and "below sector benchmarks" secondary signals don't move me much given the absolute numbers are strong. Where I land: the synthesis model's $129 fair value is too pessimistic — it's pricing AZN like 2022 AZN, not 2025/2026 AZN. But the narrative-implied $183 requires believing the 31% earnings CAGR doesn't mean-revert toward the 13% revenue CAGR, which it eventually must. Splitting the difference: fair value in the $160-170 range on a blended 22-24x forward earnings multiple, implying ~10% downside, not 30%. Not cheap enough to buy, not expensive enough to short or trim aggressively if held. The Q2 2026 print is the tell — if revenue re-accelerates above $15.5B and margins hold above 18%, the bull narrative survives; another sequential decline and the multiple compresses fast.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-25 03:07:03
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I align with Opus on the overvaluation call at $183, suggesting a fairer valuation of $160-$170, slightly more conservative than Opus's midpoint, factoring in potential growth deceleration and sector risks.

In examining AstraZeneca's financials, I see a company that has significantly enhanced its profitability profile over the past few years. The revenue has grown from $37.42 billion in 2021 to $58.74 billion in 2025, a substantial increase of approximately 57%. More striking, however, is the tripling of net income from $3.29 billion in 2022 to $10.26 billion in 2025, demonstrating robust operating leverage. This shift is underscored by a rise in operating margins from a mere 2.8% in 2021 to 23.4% in 2025, reflecting a transition from a lower-margin operation to a high-margin business. The company's gross margin of 82% further emphasizes its strong pricing power and operational efficiency.

Opus argues that AstraZeneca is "modestly overvalued," suggesting a fair value of $160-$170 versus the current price of $183. I agree with this assessment to an extent, as the high P/E ratio of approximately 27x TTM earnings does seem steep for a company facing potential headwinds such as patent cliffs and regulatory pricing pressures. However, the comparison with peers like Eli Lilly and Merck shows AstraZeneca's valuation is not excessively out of line, given its superior earnings growth trajectory. Opus rightly points out the potential risks of mean reversion in earnings growth, and I concur that the 31% earnings CAGR is unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. However, the company's strong cash flow generation, evidenced by a $8.67 billion FCF, provides a buffer against some of these risks.

I disagree with Opus's dismissal of the valuation synthesis verdict that suggests a fair value of $128.98. While this figure appears conservative, it highlights the importance of anchoring valuations in fundamental cash flow metrics, particularly in a high-stakes sector like pharmaceuticals where narrative-driven premiums can evaporate quickly. Opus notes the sequential revenue dip from $15.50 billion to $15.29 billion in Q1 2026 as a potential warning sign. I agree that this warrants attention, as it could indicate early signs of growth deceleration, especially in the context of macroeconomic uncertainties and sector-specific challenges such as the Inflation Reduction Act's impact on drug pricing.

A cautious skeptic might argue that both Opus's and my assessments underestimate the potential impact of AstraZeneca's pipeline and M&A strategies. The company has a history of successful drug development and strategic acquisitions, which could counterbalance the risks of patent expiration and competitive pressures. Furthermore, the demographic trends favoring increased demand for healthcare products could sustain growth longer than anticipated. However, the skeptic would also point out the persistent macro headwinds and sector-wide regulatory challenges that could constrain margins and growth prospects more severely than currently priced in.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for AZN. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30