Skip to main content
Homepage
Full 18-step deep-dive · ~20–30 min · a member feature.
AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
UNVERIFIED BASIS Generated before the data-freshness fixes of Aug 14, 2026 — treat as indicative.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -13 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 55 · Value -69 · Sentiment 28 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $133.28 vs $169.64 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

AstraZeneca PLC

AZN NASDAQ
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Cambridge, CB2 0AA, United Kingdom astrazeneca.com Updated Aug 1, 1:13am
Price
$169.64
Market Cap
$263.1B
Employees
96,100
Beta
0.23
Avg Volume
2,612,085
Last Dividend
$3.18
CEO
Mr. Pascal Claude Roland Soriot D.V.M., M.B.A.

AstraZeneca PLC American Depositary Shares is the U.S.-traded representation of AstraZeneca PLC, a global biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, manufacture, and commercialization of prescription medicines. The company serves major therapeutic areas including oncology, cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, respiratory and immunology, and rare diseases, with a portfolio that spans both established treatments and specialty medicines. AstraZeneca also operates in biologics and small-molecule research, supporting a broad pipeline of medicines used across hospitals, clinics, and specialty care settings. Its business model centers on developing therapies for patients and supplying healthcare systems and providers worldwide. Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Cambridge, United Kingdom, AstraZeneca is a significant participant in the global pharmaceutical market through its diversified drug portfolio and research-driven operations.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 12:12am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$169.64
as of Aug 2, 12:18am (21d ago)
Change · Aug 2
-1.70 (-0.99%)
Day Range
$168.44 – $170.74
52-Week Range
$145.80 – $212.71
50-Day MA
$179.16
200-Day MA
$184.80
Volume
1,669,900.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,550,876,987.00
Float 1,543,213,980.00
Free Float 99.5%
High free float — 99.5% of shares trade freely, ~0.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 12:21am (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:11am (23d ago)
Why there are no quarterly figures for AstraZeneca PLC

This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.

Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 12:09am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
25.94
Stock Price: $169.64
EPS (Diluted): 6.54
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
5.44
Stock Price: $169.64
Total Equity: $48.72B
Shares: 1,562,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
14.64
Market Cap: $263.09B
Total Debt: $27.82B
Cash: $5.71B
EBITDA: $19.48B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$285.1B
Market Cap: $263.09B
Total Debt: $27.82B
Cash: $5.71B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
81.9%
Gross Profit: $48.11B
Revenue: $58.74B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
23.4%
Operating Income: $13.74B
Revenue: $58.74B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
17.4%
Net Income: $10.23B
Revenue: $58.74B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
21.0%
Net Income: $10.23B
Total Equity: $48.72B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
16.0%
Operating Income: $13.74B
Tax Rate: 17.5%
Equity: $48.72B
Total Debt: $27.82B
Cash: $5.71B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.94
Current Assets: $28.72B
Current Liabilities: $30.62B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.57
Short-Term Debt: $3.10B
Long-Term Debt: $24.72B
Total Debt: $27.82B
Total Equity: $48.72B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$37.60
Revenue: $58.74B
Shares: 1,562,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$31.19
Total Equity: $48.72B
Shares: 1,562,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$7.53
Operating CF: $14.58B
CapEx: -$2.81B
Shares: 1,562,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.9%
Last Dividend: $3.18
Stock Price: $169.64
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
48.6%
Dividends Paid: -$4.97B
Net Income: $10.23B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 12:09am
Compares AZN against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:11am (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $37.4B $44.4B $45.8B $54.1B $58.7B
Cost of Revenue $12.4B $12.4B $8.3B $10.2B $10.6B
Gross Profit $25.0B $32.0B $37.5B $43.9B $48.1B
Operating Expenses $23.9B $28.2B $29.4B $33.9B $34.4B
Operating Income $1.1B $3.8B $8.2B $10.0B $13.7B
Net Income $112.0M $3.3B $6.0B $7.0B $10.2B
EBITDA $7.6B $9.2B $13.6B $16.7B $19.5B
EPS $0.08 $2.12 $3.84 $4.54 $6.60
EPS (Diluted) $0.08 $2.11 $3.81 $4.50 $6.54
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:11am (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $6.3B $6.2B $5.8B $5.5B $5.7B
Total Current Assets $26.2B $22.6B $25.1B $25.8B $28.7B
Total Assets $105.4B $96.5B $101.1B $104.0B $114.1B
Current Liabilities $22.6B $26.3B $30.5B $27.9B $30.6B
Long-Term Debt $28.1B $23.0B $22.4B $26.5B $24.7B
Total Liabilities $66.1B $59.4B $62.0B $63.2B $65.4B
Total Equity $39.3B $37.1B $39.2B $40.9B $48.7B
Retained Earnings $1.7B -$574.0M $1.5B $3.2B $11.0B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:11am (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $6.0B $9.8B $10.3B $11.9B $14.6B
Capital Expenditure -$1.1B -$1.1B -$1.4B -$1.9B -$2.8B
Free Cash Flow $4.9B $8.7B $9.0B $9.9B $11.8B
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $8.2B -$1.3B -$1.1B $1.8B -$2.0B
Dividends Paid -$3.9B -$4.4B -$4.5B -$4.6B -$5.0B
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash -$1.4B $25.0M -$286.0M -$115.0M $223.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:11am (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +18.5% +3.3% +18.0% +8.6%
Gross Profit Growth +27.9% +17.5% +16.8% +9.7%
Operating Income Growth +255.8% +118.1% +22.1% +37.4%
Net Income Growth +2,835.7% +81.1% +18.1% +45.3%
EBITDA Growth +21.8% +47.0% +22.9% +16.7%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:11am (23d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-02-19 $2.15
2025-08-08 $0.52
2025-02-21 $1.05
2024-08-09 $0.50
2024-02-22 $0.99
2023-08-10 $0.47
2023-02-23 $0.99
2022-08-11 $0.47
2022-02-24 $0.99
2021-08-12 $0.45
2021-02-25 $0.95
2020-08-13 $0.45
2020-02-27 $0.95
2019-08-08 $0.45
2019-02-28 $0.95
2018-08-09 $0.45
2018-02-15 $0.95
2017-08-09 $0.45
2017-02-15 $0.95
2016-08-10 $1.80
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for AZN — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 00:20:40
Verdict Modestly overvalued but not egregiously so — fair value $150-160, not $137; wait for sub-$155 entry or a pipeline catalyst rather than shorting the 31% earnings CAGR.

AstraZeneca's raw trajectory is genuinely impressive on the surface: revenue $37.4B (2021) → $58.7B (2025), a 12% CAGR, but the more striking figure is operating income going from $1.06B to $13.74B over the same span — a >12x expansion. Operating margin has recovered from a pandemic-distorted 2.8% to 23.4%, and net margin from ~0.3% to 17.4%. That's not "mature earner" — that's a company still normalizing post-Alexion integration and post-COVID vaccine wind-down. FCF of $11.77B on $263B market cap is a ~4.5% FCF yield, which is not screamingly cheap but not egregious for a company compounding earnings at 31% and posting 21% ROE / 16% ROIC. Debt of $27.8B against $14.6B operating cash flow is manageable (1.9x OCF), and the current ratio of 0.94 is normal for big pharma with predictable receivables.

Where I part ways with the synthesis: calling this "fully priced" at $132-137 fair value implies you're extrapolating a mature-pharma multiple (15-18x) onto a business whose earnings have grown 45% YoY most recently and whose operating leverage is still playing out. 25.9x earnings on trailing $10.23B NI is a demanding multiple, yes, but if 2026 NI lands near $12B (consistent with continued operating leverage on 8-9% revenue growth), the forward P/E is closer to 22x — reasonable for a diversified oncology leader with a rare-disease moat. The DCF's ~$137 anchor almost certainly assumes reversion to mid-single-digit growth and margin plateau; that's a defensible assumption but not the only one. The thesis-evaluation score of -3 (essentially neutral) is more honest than the synthesis's confident -19.5% overvaluation call.

The contrarian bear case the models undersell isn't Tagrisso — that's well-telegraphed and consensus-baked. It's the Enhertu concentration risk (Daiichi Sankyo shares economics), China (16-18% of revenue, VBP compression ongoing, and no clear inflection), and the fact that pharma multiples compress hard when growth decelerates — see Pfizer post-COVID or Bristol post-Revlimid. If 2026 revenue growth prints 5-6% instead of 8-9%, this stock re-rates to 18-20x fast and you're looking at $130-140 quickly. The insider "S-Sale" of 11,893 shares in May 2026 is trivial in size and correctly flagged neutral, but the near-total absence of insider buying at these levels is telling — no one on the inside thinks this is cheap. Also worth flagging: the quarterly revenue trajectory is listed as "insufficient_data" while confidence is called "high," which is an internal contradiction in the signal stack.

Data quality concerns: the insider transaction dates (2026-07-06) suggest this file has a forward-dated timestamp or the pipeline is pulling from a stale/future reference — worth verifying the "current" $169.64 anchor is actually recent. The market-forces layer failed entirely ("AI Analysis Unavailable"), so we're flying without a competitive-dynamics read on GLP-1 crossover risk, IRA Medicare negotiation exposure (AZN has Farxiga on the 2026 negotiation list — a real ~$1B+ headwind by 2027), or biosimilar timing on Soliris/Ultomiris. Those are material and unaddressed. My verdict: I dissent partially from the synthesis. The stock isn't a clear short at $169 — the earnings momentum and margin expansion are real and the DCF likely under-models operating leverage — but it's not a compelling long either. Fair value is more like $150-160 (splitting the difference between the DCF's $137 and a growth-adjusted 22x forward of ~$165), meaning current price is ~5-10% rich, not 20%. I'd wait for a mid-$150s entry or a clean beat-and-raise on the Tagrisso-successor pipeline (datopotamab, camizestrant readouts) before committing capital. Existing holders should keep it; new money should be patient.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 00:20:55
Verdict Overvalued at $169.64 — superb pharma execution, but fair value is closer to $135-$145 unless AZN proves it can sustain low-teens growth beyond the current margin recovery cycle.

AstraZeneca looks like a very good business at too full a price. The operating trajectory is undeniably strong: revenue has risen from $37.4B in 2021 to $58.7B in 2025, a 57% increase in four years, while operating income went from a barely acceptable $1.06B to $13.74B and net income from essentially breakeven at $112M to $10.23B. That is not financial engineering; margins have genuinely rebuilt, with gross margin now 81.9%, operating margin 23.4%, and net margin 17.4%. Free cash flow of $11.77B on $14.58B of operating cash flow is also real enough to support the earnings progression. On capital efficiency, 21.0% ROE and 16.0% ROIC are the profile of a high-quality large-cap pharma compounder, not a lumbering incumbent. If the question were “is this business excellent?”, the answer is yes.

The issue is that the stock already asks you to pay for that excellence as though the next leg of growth is unusually secure. At $169.64, the company trades around 25.9x earnings, 4.5x sales, and 14.6x EV/EBITDA. For a business with 2025 revenue growth of 8.6%, that is a premium multiple even allowing for pharma’s defensiveness and AZN’s pipeline quality. The model output calling it fully priced around the mid-$130s does not strike me as obviously too conservative; in fact, the raw numbers support it. A company generating $10.23B of net income and $11.77B of free cash flow against a $263B market cap is offering only a mid-4% earnings yield and roughly 4.5% FCF yield. That can work if double-digit growth persists for years with limited patent and pricing disruption, but large-cap pharma rarely gets a long runway without a cliff, reimbursement pressure, or geographic volatility spoiling the smooth compounding story. The current ratio under 1.0 is not alarming in this industry, and net debt is manageable at roughly $22.1B, so balance sheet stress is not the bear case. The bear case is simply that the stock is priced as if execution risk is low when pharma execution risk is never low.

What stands out most in the numbers is how much of the bull case depends on extrapolating a period of margin normalization and portfolio strength into a premium valuation regime. Between 2021 and 2025, operating margin expanded from 2.8% to 23.4%; that kind of jump is powerful, but it is also the sort of step-change that becomes hard to repeat once the business has already matured into strong profitability. Revenue growth also slowed materially from the earlier post-2021 base effects to 8.6% most recently, while the P/E still sits near 26x. In other words, earnings growth has been spectacular partly because margins recovered from a depressed base, but the market is valuing the company more on the assumption that product-cycle strength will keep EPS compounding at a high rate even after the easy margin gains are behind it. For a pharma name with known blockbuster concentration risk and a modest 1.9% dividend yield, I do not see enough valuation support if sentiment shifts from “steady compounder” to merely “solid major pharma.”

The strongest argument against my caution is that AZN may deserve to trade above traditional pharma comps because this is not a stagnant ex-growth portfolio. The four-year revenue CAGR of 13.2%, earnings CAGR of 31%, and FCF CAGR of 14.4% are far better than what most peers have delivered, and the quality metrics are consistent with a company that has genuinely upgraded its business mix. If the oncology and rare disease franchises continue to outgrow the broader group, then 25-26x earnings may not be crazy; on 2025 net income, even another few years of low-teens EPS growth would compress that multiple quickly. A smart bull would also note that debt is reasonable relative to cash generation, the payout ratio is only 48.6%, and management has room to keep investing without stressing the capital structure. I weigh that differently because the stock does not need AZN to be good; it needs AZN to remain exceptional through patent cycles, China exposure, and pricing pressure. That is a harder standard.

What would change my mind is not another narrative win but evidence that growth durability is stronger than the current valuation already discounts. If annual revenue can move from $58.7B toward the mid-$60Bs while holding operating margin at or above 23% and converting that into $13B+ of free cash flow, then today’s price becomes more defensible. I would also want to see clear proof that key growth franchises are replacing future concentration risk fast enough that earnings can keep compounding despite looming exclusivity losses, rather than just benefiting from residual margin uplift. Conversely, if revenue growth slips into the mid-single digits or margins flatten while the multiple stays in the mid-20s, I would become more bearish from here.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 00:21:24
Verdict Overvalued at $169.64; fair value nearer $135-145 given 8.6% decelerating growth and Tagrisso cliff

The raw financial trajectory is unambiguous and impressive on its face. AstraZeneca has compounded revenue from $37.42B in 2021 to $58.74B in 2025 at a 13.2% CAGR while net income exploded from essentially break-even ($112M) to $10.23B, driving operating margin from roughly 3% to 23.4% and net margin to 17.4%. Free cash flow of $11.77B on $14.58B operating cash flow, against only $2.81B of capex, confirms a high-quality cash engine; ROE at 21% and ROIC at 16% are elite for a company of this scale. Gross margin holding at 81.9% underscores pricing power in the oncology and specialty mix. Yet the most recent year already shows deceleration: revenue grew only 8.6% year-over-year while earnings jumped 45%, meaning the latest beat is almost entirely margin capture rather than volume or new-product acceleration. At $169.64 the stock trades at 25.9x earnings, 4.5x sales and 14.6x EV/EBITDA—multiples that embed continued double-digit earnings growth even as the top-line trend is already rolling over into high-single digits.

That valuation sits roughly 24% above the composite DCF anchor near $137 and well above the 15-18x historical pharma band. Debt of $27.82B against $5.71B cash and a sub-1.0 current ratio is manageable given the FCF, but it leaves little cushion if China VBP pressure or the Tagrisso LOE (a potential $6B hole from 2027) bites harder than modeled. The 1.9% dividend yield and 49% payout are shareholder-friendly yet unexceptional, and insider activity is noise—token awards plus one modest sale. The story the numbers actually tell is of a successfully repositioned mature earner whose easiest margin expansion is largely behind it; the market is still paying growth-company multiples for what is increasingly a cash-return story with pipeline optionality.

The strongest counter-case is straightforward: Enhertu and the broader ADC/oncology franchise could still scale into a $15B-plus platform, rare-disease assets continue mid-teens growth with limited biosimilar risk, and management has repeatedly executed lifecycle extensions that blunt patent cliffs better than peers. If those franchises deliver, the 13% revenue CAGR can re-accelerate and the 26x multiple becomes a fair price for durable compounding rather than a premium. I weigh this less heavily because recent organic growth has already slowed to 8.6%, the Tagrisso cliff is calendar-certain, and China remains a material, non-diversifiable risk; the bull case requires near-perfect pipeline conversion simply to justify today’s price, leaving no margin of safety.

I would reverse to neutral or constructive only if 2026 revenue re-accelerates above 12% with oncology contribution visibly offsetting any Tagrisso erosion, or if the company posts clear evidence that Enhertu-plus-combinations are tracking toward the $15B ambition on a faster timeline than consensus.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 00:36:31
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Great pharma business, wrong price — quality +55 says own it, valuation -69 says not here; wait for the $140s.
The cruxWhether you're willing to underwrite pipeline perfection at $170, or patient enough to let the tape hand you a $145 print where the margin of safety actually exists.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from AZN's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+55
Strong
edge √Σ 136 · risk √Σ 74 · conf 8/10

The operating trajectory is unambiguously improving: revenue has grown from $37.4B in 2021 to $58.7B in 2025 (roughly 12% CAGR), gross margin has expanded from 66.8% to 81.9%, and operating margin has stepped up from 2.8% to 23.4%. Net income scaled from $112M to $10.2B and FCF from $4.87B to $11.77B over the same window - operating leverage is real and the earnings are cash-backed (OCF/NI 12.2x, accruals -5% of assets, Beneish M -2.46). Altman Z of 3.44 sits in the safe zone. Balance sheet is the one constraint: net debt of about $22.1B against only $5.7B of liquid cash means this is a self-funding but not fortress balance sheet - it depends on continued cash generation to service leverage while funding R&D and pipeline. Nothing in the accruals or M-score suggests the reported numbers are engineered. Capital allocation is the mild concern: diluted shares have crept from 1.43B to 1.56B (2.3% CAGR) with essentially no buyback offset (Buyback/SBC 0%), so per-share compounding lags the strong absolute growth. Insider tape is non-directional - a single small routine sale by one officer against small awards, no signal either way.

Strengths 4
m78
Operating leverage inflecting hard
OpM expanded from 2.8% (2021) to 23.4% (2025) on revenue up ~57%; net income grew nearly 100x off a depressed 2021 base and 3x from 2022's $3.29B.
m72
High earnings quality
OCF/NI 12.21x, accruals -5% of assets, Beneish M -2.46, Altman Z 3.44 - mechanical checks show reported profits are cash-backed and not accrual-inflated.
m65
Durable FCF generation
FCF scaled from $4.87B to $11.77B across five years with no negative years - the business self-funds R&D, dividends, and debt service.
m55
Gross margin expansion
GM rose from 66.8% to 81.9%, consistent with mix shift toward higher-margin oncology/biologics and better utilization.
Concerns 3
m55
Net debt of $22.1B
Liquid cash only $5.7B against net debt of $22.1B; balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion, though ~$11.8B annual FCF covers it comfortably.
m45
Steady share creep with no buyback
Diluted shares grew 2.3%/yr (1.43B to 1.56B) and Buyback/SBC is 0% - per-share value dilution modestly offsets otherwise strong absolute growth.
m20
Pipeline/patent-cliff opacity
Large pharma quality hinges on pipeline durability and LOE exposure not visible in the financials shown.
This is a genuinely strong pharma business trending the right way on every operating axis I can see - margins doubling, FCF doubling, no accrual games. The knocks are real but bounded: leverage is meaningful but well-covered by cash generation, and the 2.3% annual share creep with zero buyback quietly taxes per-share compounding. I'd grade this comfortably in the Strong bucket - not Fortress because the balance sheet isn't one and I can't see the pipeline cliff from here, but the earnings integrity signals are as clean as large-pharma gets.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Patent expiry schedule and LOE exposure over next 3-5 years (Farxiga, Tagrisso, Imfinzi)
  • Pipeline depth and Phase 3 readout calendar
  • Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average interest cost given $22B net debt
  • Whether 2021's depressed OpM reflects Alexion acquisition accounting or one-time items - baseline the true underlying margin path
  • R&D capitalization policy and any changes across the period
  • Customer/payer and geographic concentration in the top-selling franchises
Valuation / Mispricing
-69
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 104 · conf 7/10
price $169.64 vs deserved ~$140-150, roughly 15-20% overpriced - no margin of safety. attractive below $145.00

The composite fair value is $132.40 and the signal-adjusted FV is $136.62, implying roughly -19% to -22% downside from $169.64. The DCF ($154) is the most generous method and still sits ~9% below the tape; the anchored P/E ($148) also sits below; the EPV floor ($73) confirms there is no cash-based cushion here - you are paying for growth. Even giving the strong-quality business a modest deserved-value bump, fair falls in the $140-150 zone, not $170. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted, but that does not manufacture cheapness either. What is priced in: continued pipeline wins (Truqap, Enhertu, Imfinzi combos), clean patent cliff management, and durable mid-single-digit organic growth. That is the bull case as the base case, with little room for slippage. The margin of safety is negative - you are underwriting perfection at today's price. This is a good company the market already understands and rewards; the correct verdict is Rich, not cheap.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality deserves a premium
High earnings quality, doubling margins and FCF, and cash-generative franchise justify trading above the raw composite - but not 20-25% above.
Rich / priced-in 5
m62
Price ~19% above composite FV
Composite FV $132.40 and signal-adjusted $136.62 vs $169.64 tape imply -19% to -22% embedded downside on the blended methods.
m55
Even the generous DCF sits below price
DCF at $154.03 is the highest method and still ~9% under the tape - the market is paying above the most optimistic model.
m45
No cash-earnings floor
EPV floor of $73.21 is less than half the price - all valuation support is growth-dependent, none from steady-state cash.
m40
Priced for pipeline perfection
To justify $170 the market needs every near-term approval to land and mid-single-digit organic growth to persist through patent cliffs - a heroic base case.
m18
Silent dilution tax
2.3% annual share creep with no buyback quietly erodes per-share compounding, which the growth-heavy valuation does not compensate for.
I like the business, I do not like the price. Every method the brief hands me - composite, signal-adjusted, DCF, anchored P/E - sits below $170, and the EPV floor is a rounding error. Even giving the strong-quality read a generous premium, I get to fair somewhere in the $140s, which means I need this stock roughly 15% lower before it is interesting. This is the textbook case of a good company the market has already figured out; my edge is patience, not paying up.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Truqap, Enhertu, and Imfinzi combination trial readouts and label expansion timing
  • Organic revenue growth ex-FX and pricing versus volume mix in oncology
  • Management guidance on patent cliff exposure through 2028 and LOE offsets
  • Capital allocation - whether buybacks appear to offset the 2.3% share creep
  • Net debt trajectory and any large BD spend that could pressure FCF
General Sentiment
+28
Tailwind
tail √Σ 82 · head √Σ 52 · conf 6/10

AZN sits in a favorable spot for sentiment right now. The tape is neutral-to-mildly-positive and, with a 0.23 beta, macro pressure barely reaches this name; higher-rate and stretched-PE crosswinds that punish story stocks are largely absorbed by AZN's defensive, cash-generative profile. The active narrative is steady-compounder with moderate intensity and durable shelf life - exactly the kind of story that doesn't blow up in a mid-cycle tape and quietly attracts flows when investors want quality without drama.

Tailwinds 3
m55
Fresh EU Datroway approval feeds the pipeline narrative
First-line metastatic TNBC EU approval with an OS benefit is a clean, on-story catalyst that reinforces the oncology execution thesis the bulls are paying a 24% premium for. Tangible validation of the near-term approvals story.
m45
Low-beta defensive shrugs off macro headwinds
Beta 0.23 means the 10y at 4.68% and market PE at 26.2 barely touch this name. In a neutral tape with mild risk-off flavor, mega-cap pharma is a rotation destination, not a victim.
m40
Durable steady-compounder narrative in a tape that rewards it
Moderate-intensity, durable story with strong 3-year momentum (13.2% CAGR) and improving leverage. Not a mania - just the kind of grinding tailwind that persists when the market lacks conviction.
Headwinds 3
m35
Sector tape softened this week
NYSE Healthcare Index down 1.5% Thursday afternoon and Sanofi sold off on pipeline setbacks despite an earnings beat - a reminder that pharma sentiment is jumpy and any AZN pipeline stumble would be punished harder than a beat is rewarded.
m30
Narrative priced ahead of DCF leaves little slack
With the market already paying 24% over DCF for pipeline belief, the story is doing real work in the price. Any crack (a Truqap or Enhertu setback, pricing rhetoric) would de-rate the premium fast.
m25
AI-in-oncology narrative competes for the flow
Tempus AI beat and raise, Telix-Regeneron radiopharma deal - capital is being drawn to shinier oncology stories. Not a direct hit on AZN, but it caps enthusiasm at the margin.
Net mild tailwind. This is a low-beta defensive with a durable, moderate-intensity steady-compounder story getting fed by a real approval catalyst in a tape that isn't hostile. The macro is a non-event here - beta 0.23 filters it out - and the sector wobble is background noise, not a verdict on this name. The one thing keeping me from calling it a stronger tailwind is that the narrative is already doing 24% of the pricing work versus DCF, so the sentiment cushion is thinner than it looks. But right now, more is pushing up than down.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Q2 earnings tone from AZN and peers - guidance language on pricing and IRA impact
  • Any Truqap, Enhertu, or Imfinzi trial read-through or label expansion news
  • Whether the healthcare sector weakness this week extends into a multi-week rotation out of pharma
  • Analyst target revisions following the Datroway EU approval
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -7.2% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 2, 2026, AZN was $169.64. We expect it to be $157.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $145.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 2, 2026.

Price when predicted$169.64
Our estimate for Feb 2027$157.50-7.2%
Great value below$145.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for AZN. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06