Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$61.73
6-month call
Bull +5.6%
Target by Jan 2027
$65.20
Great value below
$52.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+5.6% to $65.20
Predicted High
$65.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$61.80
at 2 months
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 12:48 am
Bull
BAC trends higher to
$65.20
(+5.6% from $61.73)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisBAC drifts modestly higher toward composite fair value near $64-66, aided by strong earnings track record (4/4 beats) and neutral regime, with mild sentiment drag capping upside. October earnings inside m3 window likely provides a positive nudge given beat streak.
Invalidated ifA break below $58 on rising volume or a Q3 earnings miss would falsify the gradual value convergence path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $61.73 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $61.73 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $59.17–$64.29 typical range · internal point $61.90 | — | ±4.1% | 7/10 | Neutral tape, low beta, minimal near-term catalysts |
| What actually happened: closed $64.09 on Aug 13, 2026 = +3.8% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.1%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $58.02–$65.44 typical range · internal point $62.30 | — | ±6.0% | 6/10 | Slow drift toward fair value in quiet August |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $61.80 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings caution, mild sentiment drag |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $63.60 | — | +3.0% | 6/10 | Q3 earnings beat continues streak, positive reaction |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $64.20 | — | +4.0% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $64.80 | — | +5.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, value gravity pulls higher |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $65.20 | — | +5.6% | 4/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value near 65.69 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $63.88 (+3.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $61.73 |
| Composite fair value | $64.21 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $65.69 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $64.21 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $52.00 |
| Value net score | -10 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +26 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.2% 3m 20.8% 6m 23.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.19 3m 0.35 5m 0.62 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 19.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | BAC-20260731-001023-61c9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-BAC-20260731-003545-1333 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-BAC-20260731-003545-1333 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-BAC-20260731-003545-1333 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-BAC-20260731-003545-1333 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | BAC-20260731-001023-61c9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $61.73 | $65.20 | +5.6% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 25, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $57.73 | $56.57 | -2.0% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.