Made on
Aug 17, 2026
Price at call
$183.40
6-month call
Bear -8.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$168.50
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.1% to $168.50
Predicted High
$183.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$168.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 17, 2026 12:55 am
Bear
BDX trends lower to
$168.50
(-8.1% from $183.40)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisBDX trades well above composite fair value near $97 but has defensive characteristics, low beta, and calm risk-on tape that limit downside speed. Expect a slow drift lower toward the deterministic $168 endpoint as value gravity gradually reasserts, with modest chop rather than a sharp break.
Invalidated ifA close above $195 or clear break below $165 within 2 months would falsify the slow-drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $183.40 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 17, 2026 | — | $183.40 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 31, 2026 | $173.19–$193.61 typical range · internal point $183.00 | — | ±5.6% | 7/10 | Low vol defensive drifts sideways near current |
| 1 month | Sep 17, 2026 | $168.60–$198.20 typical range · internal point $181.50 | — | ±8.1% | 6/10 | Mild fade as fallen-angel narrative loses steam |
| 2 months | Oct 17, 2026 | $178.50 | — | -2.7% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls modestly lower absent catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 17, 2026 | $175.00 | — | -4.6% | 5/10 | Post-earnings window reveals no upside surprise |
| 4 months | Dec 17, 2026 | $172.00 | — | -6.2% | 5/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims overvalued defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 17, 2027 | $170.00 | — | -7.3% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 17, 2027 | $168.50 | — | -8.1% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $168.08 (-8.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $183.40 |
| Composite fair value | $97.03 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $84.90 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $102.92 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | -72 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +1 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.5% 3m 28.0% 6m 27.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.14 3m -0.11 5m 0.15 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 3.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | BDX-20260817-002137-a977 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BDX-20260817-004101-3df5 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BDX-20260817-004101-3df5 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BDX-20260817-004101-3df5 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BDX-20260817-004101-3df5 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | BDX-20260817-002137-a977 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | BDX-20260817-002137-a977 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $183.40 | $168.50 | -8.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bull | $158.17 | $170.50 | +7.8% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.