Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$45.13
6-month call
Bear -18.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$37.00
Great value below
$28.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-18.0% to $37.00
Predicted High
$44.60
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$37.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-18.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:02 am
Bear
BILL trends lower to
$37.00
(-18.0% from $45.13)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisBILL trades well above composite fair value ($29) with negative sentiment and a cracking platform narrative, but strong earnings execution and low realized beta cushion the descent. Expect a gradual grind lower toward the mid-30s as value gravity asserts itself over months, not a violent repricing absent a catalyst.
Invalidated ifA reclaim above $52 on volume, or a sentiment reversal via a large customer/platform win, would invalidate the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $45.13 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $45.13 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $40.03–$50.23 typical range · internal point $44.60 | — | ±11.3% | 6/10 | Neutral tape, mild drift as narrative pressure persists |
| What actually happened: closed $49.78 on Aug 14, 2026 = +10.3% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 11.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.3%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $37.73–$52.53 typical range · internal point $43.80 | — | ±16.4% | 6/10 | No catalyst, sentiment overhang continues bleeding tape |
| What actually happened: closed $47.62 on Sep 1, 2026 = +5.5% vs the call (predicted -3.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±16.4%: inside the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $42.50 | — | -5.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward composite fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $40.90 | — | -9.4% | 5/10 | Earnings window risk, feature-not-platform doubts widen |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $39.50 | — | -12.5% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, drift toward deserved value zone |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $38.20 | — | -15.4% | 4/10 | Year-end repositioning away from rich SaaS narratives |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $37.00 | — | -18.0% | 3/10 | Convergence toward mid-30s deserved-value band |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $44.21 (-2.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $45.13 |
| Composite fair value | $29.07 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $27.77 |
| DCF fair value | $50.35 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $4.69 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $28.00 |
| Value net score | -71 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +3 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 52.3% 3m 56.8% 6m 71.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.64 3m 0.30 5m 0.67 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 4.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | BILL-20260730-175301-1310 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-BILL-20260730-182641-4123 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-BILL-20260730-182641-4123 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-BILL-20260730-182641-4123 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-BILL-20260730-182641-4123 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | BILL-20260730-175301-1310 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | BILL-20260730-175301-1310 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $45.13 | $37.00 | -18.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.