Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$64.41
6-month call
Bear -9.2%
Target by Mar 2027
$58.50
Great value below
$48.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.2% to $58.50
Predicted High
$64.10
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$58.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:03 pm
Bear
BKR trends lower to
$58.50
(-9.2% from $64.41)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisBKR trades well above every fundamental anchor on a stretched AI-power narrative, with negative value and mildly negative sentiment against a neutral tape. Near-term momentum keeps it sticky, but value gravity plus a fading story should drag it toward the deterministic endpoint over six months.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $70 on renewed AI-power capex headlines, or a beat-and-raise print, would invalidate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $64.41 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $64.41 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $60.29–$68.53 typical range · internal point $64.10 | — | ±6.4% | 7/10 | Neutral tape, low vol, narrative still intact near term |
| What actually happened: closed $56.72 on Sep 15, 2026 = -11.9% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $58.44–$70.38 typical range · internal point $63.20 | — | ±9.3% | 6/10 | Mild drift as sentiment cracks at edges |
| What actually happened: closed $55.62 on Oct 1, 2026 = -13.7% vs the call (predicted -1.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.3%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $61.80 | — | -4.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins to press without catalyst |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $60.50 | — | -6.1% | 5/10 | AI-power story fatigue, no earnings support |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $59.80 | — | -7.2% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $58.90 | — | -8.5% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion versus rich anchors |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $58.50 | — | -9.2% | 4/10 | Settles near baseline; still above deep DCF floor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $59.43 (-7.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $64.41 |
| Composite fair value | $43.95 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $42.02 |
| DCF fair value | $27.07 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $100.15 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $48.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +27 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.2% 3m 32.1% 6m 34.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.07 3m 0.57 5m 0.56 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 1.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | 21d behind | BKR-20260811-152508-50df |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKR-20260902-004642-7c54 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKR-20260902-004642-7c54 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKR-20260902-004642-7c54 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKR-20260902-004642-7c54 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | BKR-20260902-003001-fc6d |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | BKR-20260902-003001-fc6d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $64.41 | $58.50 | -9.2% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.