Made on
Aug 7, 2026
Price at call
$180.82
6-month call
Bear -8.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$166.00
Great value below
$150.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.2% to $166.00
Predicted High
$181.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$166.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 7, 2026 1:08 am
Bear
BMO trends lower to
$166.00
(-8.2% from $180.82)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisBMO trades ~30% above composite fair value after a strong 28% rally, but low beta and risk-on tape limit near-term downside. Expect a modest fade toward value gravity over 6 months, with the Q3 print as the main catalyst for the first leg lower.
Invalidated ifA clean Q3 beat with credit metrics improving that pushes shares above $195 would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $180.82 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 7, 2026 | — | $180.82 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 21, 2026 | $174.61–$187.03 typical range · internal point $181.50 | — | ±3.4% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and momentum carry near term |
| What actually happened: closed $172.90 on Aug 20, 2026 = -4.4% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±3.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 7, 2026 | $171.82–$189.82 typical range · internal point $179.00 | — | ±5.0% | 5/10 | Modest drift as rally exhaustion sets in |
| 2 months | Oct 7, 2026 | $175.50 | — | -2.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk and rate/credit crosscurrents weigh |
| 3 months | Nov 7, 2026 | $172.00 | — | -4.9% | 6/10 | Post-earnings digestion begins value convergence |
| 4 months | Dec 7, 2026 | $170.00 | — | -6.0% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 7, 2027 | $168.50 | — | -6.8% | 4/10 | January reset toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 7, 2027 | $166.00 | — | -8.2% | 4/10 | Continued gravitation toward $148 anchor, low beta slows drift |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $173.05 (-4.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $180.82 |
| Composite fair value | $137.96 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $148.03 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $137.96 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $150.00 |
| Value net score | -70 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +8 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 18.6% 3m 17.2% 6m 21.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.87 3m 0.56 5m 0.87 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 28.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | BMO-20260807-000819-19c7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-BMO-20260807-005507-819c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-BMO-20260807-005507-819c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-BMO-20260807-005507-819c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-BMO-20260807-005507-819c |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | BMO-20260807-000819-19c7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $180.82 | $166.00 | -8.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.