Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$63.63
6-month call
Bull +17.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$74.80
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+17.6% to $74.80
Predicted High
$74.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$63.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:18 am
Bull
BMY trends higher to
$74.80
(+17.6% from $63.63)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisBMY trades below composite fair value with sentiment as the main drag, but a low-beta, defensive profile plus a strong beat streak into the Oct 28 print should support a gradual grind higher toward the mid-70s. Path is slow early as patent-cliff narrative lingers, then bends up post-earnings if the beat streak extends.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss, guidance cut, or pipeline setback that pushes the stock below $58.99 bear scenario would falsify the upward drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $63.63 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $63.63 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $60.12–$67.14 typical range · internal point $63.90 | — | ±5.5% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, negative sentiment caps upside near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $67.61 on Aug 19, 2026 = +6.3% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 5.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $58.54–$68.72 typical range · internal point $64.50 | — | ±8.0% | 6/10 | Modest bid as risk-on regime persists, defensive tone |
| What actually happened: closed $66.82 on Sep 4, 2026 = +5.0% vs the call (predicted +1.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 3.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.0%: inside the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $65.80 | — | +3.4% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, 4/4 beat streak draws buyers |
| What actually happened: closed $58.81 on Oct 5, 2026 = -7.6% vs the call (predicted +3.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $69.50 | — | +9.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print inside window; likely beat lifts multiple |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $71.80 | — | +12.8% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $73.50 | — | +15.5% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation into defensive dividend names |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $74.80 | — | +17.6% | 3/10 | Value gravity toward $77 composite anchor, sentiment fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $75.20 (+18.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $63.63 |
| Composite fair value | $77.21 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $80.49 |
| DCF fair value | $116.54 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $55.41 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $55.00 |
| Value net score | +4 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +3 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.3% 3m 27.7% 6m 27.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.17 3m -0.13 5m 0.20 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 15.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | BMY-20260806-002631-dc1a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-BMY-20260806-010329-25bc |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-BMY-20260806-010329-25bc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-BMY-20260806-010329-25bc |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-BMY-20260806-010329-25bc |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | BMY-20260806-002631-dc1a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | BMY-20260806-002631-dc1a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $63.63 | $74.80 | +17.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.