Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$51.43
6-month call
Bull +9.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$56.20
Great value below
$44.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.3% to $56.20
Predicted High
$56.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$50.20
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:09 am
Bull
BSX trends higher to
$56.20
(+9.3% from $51.43)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisBSX trades depressed on lowered 2026 guide and fallen-angel narrative despite strong quality and consistent earnings beats. Near-term sentiment overhang keeps price rangebound to slightly lower before value gravity pulls toward composite fair value into 2027.
Invalidated ifBreak below $44 attractive-value line or failure to reclaim $52 by m3 signals deeper derating.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $51.43 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $51.43 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $47.27–$55.59 typical range · internal point $50.80 | — | ±8.1% | 7/10 | Sentiment overhang persists near-term, low beta muted drift |
| What actually happened: closed $48.08 on Sep 1, 2026 = -6.5% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 5.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.1%: inside the band · S&P -0.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $45.39–$57.47 typical range · internal point $50.20 | — | ±11.7% | 6/10 | Fallen-angel narrative continues pressuring shares mildly |
| What actually happened: closed $43.55 on Sep 17, 2026 = -15.3% vs the call (predicted -2.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 12.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.7%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $51.60 | — | +0.3% | 5/10 | Stabilization as bearish flow exhausts, tape supportive |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $53.20 | — | +3.4% | 5/10 | Quality reassertion, earnings beat streak reminder |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $54.10 | — | +5.2% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value 53.60 |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $55.00 | — | +6.9% | 4/10 | Guidance reset digested, positioning normalizes |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $56.20 | — | +9.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deserved value 58.66 partially |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $52.71 (+2.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $51.43 |
| Composite fair value | $53.60 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $71.39 |
| DCF fair value | $47.88 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $97.73 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $44.00 |
| Value net score | -32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +78 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.2% 3m 40.7% 6m 40.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.34 3m 0.01 5m 0.24 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -31.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 18d behind | BSX-20260730-143258-4415 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BSX-20260817-101417-b193 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BSX-20260817-101417-b193 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BSX-20260817-101417-b193 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BSX-20260817-101417-b193 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | BSX-20260730-143258-4415 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | BSX-20260730-143258-4415 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $51.43 | $56.20 | +9.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.