Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$137.20
6-month call
Bear -10.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$123.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.3% to $123.00
Predicted High
$141.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$123.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 1:44 am
Bear
BX trends lower to
$123.00
(-10.3% from $137.20)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisBX is riding a risk-on tape and AI-financing narrative near-term, but sits well above composite fair value near $102 with a negative value lens. Expect modest continued lift while momentum holds, then gravity toward the anchored-PE zone as sentiment cools over months 3-6.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $145 on strong volume or regime flip to risk-off with BX holding above $135 would falsify the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $137.20 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $137.20 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $126.88–$147.52 typical range · internal point $139.80 | — | ±7.5% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and AI-financing bid persist short term |
| What actually happened: closed $146.35 on Aug 19, 2026 = +6.7% vs the call (predicted +1.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $122.25–$152.15 typical range · internal point $141.20 | — | ±10.9% | 6/10 | Momentum extends, no earnings catalyst, beta tailwind |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $138.50 | — | +0.9% | 5/10 | Sentiment premium starts compressing toward anchored-PE |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $134.00 | — | -2.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins overriding fading narrative |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $130.00 | — | -5.2% | 5/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline as risk-on cools |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $126.50 | — | -7.8% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion toward anchored-PE $128 |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $123.00 | — | -10.3% | 4/10 | Convergence below baseline as value lens weight grows |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $131.38 (-4.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $137.20 |
| Composite fair value | $102.30 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $100.88 |
| DCF fair value | $89.44 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $128.03 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +51 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.2% 3m 37.7% 6m 41.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.24 3m 1.20 5m 1.22 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | BX-20260805-002510-ffc3 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-BX-20260805-013019-40fd |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-BX-20260805-013019-40fd |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-BX-20260805-013019-40fd |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-BX-20260805-013019-40fd |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | BX-20260805-002510-ffc3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | BX-20260805-002510-ffc3 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $137.20 | $123.00 | -10.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 29, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.