Made on
Aug 3, 2026
Price at call
$132.45
6-month call
Bear -9.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$120.00
Great value below
$105.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.4% to $120.00
Predicted High
$134.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$120.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 3, 2026 12:37 am
Bear
C trends lower to
$120.00
(-9.4% from $132.45)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCiti trades ~20% above composite fair value with a durable turnaround narrative and clean momentum, but value gravity should assert itself over months as sentiment cools toward the $110-115 fair-value zone. Near-term drift is mildly positive on regime neutrality and beat streak, then fades.
Invalidated ifA decisive close above $145 on volume, or a break below $118 that stalls, would falsify the slow-fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $132.45 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 3, 2026 | — | $132.45 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 17, 2026 | $124.74–$140.16 typical range · internal point $133.80 | — | ±5.8% | 6/10 | Momentum and calm tape carry price slightly higher |
| What actually happened: closed $139.33 on Aug 14, 2026 = +5.2% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 4.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.8%: inside the band · S&P +2.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 3, 2026 | $121.28–$143.62 typical range · internal point $134.50 | — | ±8.4% | 5/10 | Turnaround narrative persists, no catalyst to break |
| 2 months | Oct 3, 2026 | $132.00 | — | -0.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins as rally loses steam |
| 3 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $128.50 | — | -3.0% | 6/10 | Q3 print digested, re-rating story matures |
| 4 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $125.00 | — | -5.6% | 5/10 | Fair-value pull accelerates in year-end positioning |
| 5 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $122.00 | — | -7.9% | 4/10 | January reset toward composite fair value zone |
| 6 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $120.00 | — | -9.4% | 4/10 | Convergence toward $110-115 anchor, sentiment fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $129.03 (-2.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $132.45 |
| Composite fair value | $110.39 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $109.95 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $110.39 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $105.00 |
| Value net score | -72 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +16 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.3% 3m 29.2% 6m 32.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.96 3m 1.00 5m 1.21 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 15.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | C-20260803-000636-5522 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-C-20260803-002617-0bcb |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-C-20260803-002617-0bcb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-C-20260803-002617-0bcb |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-C-20260803-002617-0bcb |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | C-20260803-000636-5522 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | C-20260803-000636-5522 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $132.45 | $120.00 | -9.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.