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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 26, 2026
1 day ago · 100% complete

Citigroup Inc.

C NYSE Categories PDF
Financial Services · Banks - Diversified
New York, NY 10013, United States IPO 1977 citigroup.com Updated Jun 27, 3:05am
Price
$141.68
Market Cap
$241.6B
Employees
226,000
Beta
1.11
Avg Volume
13,979,892
CEO
Jane Nind Fraser
Business Description

Citigroup, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of financial products and services. It operates through the following segments: Services, Markets, Banking, Wealth, U.S. Personal Banking (USPB), and All Other. The Services segment includes Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) which provides an integrated suite of tailored cash management, trade, and working capital solutions to multinational corporations, financial institutions and public sector organizations, and Securities Services, which offers cross-border support for clients, providing on-the-ground local market expertise, post-trade technologies, customized data solutions, and a wide range of securities services solutions that can be tailored to meet client needs. The Markets segment provides corporate, institutional, and public sector clients around the world with a full range of sales and trading services across equities, foreign exchange, rates, spread products, and commodities. The Banking segment offers Investment Banking and Corporate Lending services. The Wealth segment includes Private Bank, Wealth at Work, and Citigold and provides financial services to a range of client segments through banking, lending, mortgages, investment, custody, and trust product offerings. The USPB segment includes Branded Cards and Retail Services, which have proprietary card portfolios and co-branded card portfolios within Branded Cards, and co-brand and private label relationships within Retail Services. The All Other segment consists of activities not assigned to the reportable operating segments, including certain unallocated costs of global functions, other corporate expenses, and net treasury results. The company was founded in 1812 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

Business History
Generated: Jun 26, 2026 3:03am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:59am (just now)
$141.68
-3.30 (-2.28%)
Day Range
$140.76 – $145.10
52-Week Range
$83.81 – $147.96
50-Day MA
$131.06
200-Day MA
$114.29
Volume
6,672.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $87.00
Consensus $141.67
High $165.00
(89 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,714,910,000.00
Float 1,700,016,774.00
Free Float 99.7%
High free float — 99.7% of shares trade freely, ~0.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:59am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:04am (1d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
15.39
Stock Price: $141.68
EPS (Diluted): 7.23
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.00
Stock Price: $141.68
Total Equity: $212.29B
Shares: 1,862,600,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
36.73
Market Cap: $241.65B
Total Debt: $715.80B
Cash: $349.58B
EBITDA: $23.10B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$578.6B
Market Cap: $241.65B
Total Debt: $715.80B
Cash: $349.58B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
44.6%
Gross Profit: $74.98B
Revenue: $168.30B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
11.8%
Operating Income: $19.83B
Revenue: $168.30B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
8.5%
Net Income: $14.27B
Revenue: $168.30B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
7.5%
Net Income: $14.27B
Total Equity: $212.29B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
0.6%
Operating Income: $19.83B
Tax Rate: 27.1%
Equity: $212.29B
Total Debt: $715.80B
Cash: $349.58B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.48
Current Assets: $738.12B
Current Liabilities: $1,530.29B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
3.37
Short-Term Debt: $399.98B
Long-Term Debt: $315.83B
Total Debt: $715.80B
Total Equity: $212.29B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$90.36
Revenue: $168.30B
Shares: 1,862,600,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$113.98
Total Equity: $212.29B
Shares: 1,862,600,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-39.81
Operating CF: -$67.63B
CapEx: -$6.52B
Shares: 1,862,600,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.5%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $141.68
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $14.27B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:01am
Compares C against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:06:27 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
No positive free cash flow — DCF requires positive FCF
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
No positive free cash flow — reverse DCF requires positive FCF
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:04am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $79.9B $100.2B $155.4B $170.7B $168.3B
Cost of Revenue $4.1B $30.9B $87.5B $99.6B $93.3B
Gross Profit $75.8B $69.4B $67.9B $71.1B $75.0B
Operating Expenses $48.3B $50.6B $55.0B $54.1B $55.2B
Operating Income $27.5B $18.8B $12.9B $17.0B $19.8B
Net Income $22.0B $14.8B $9.2B $12.7B $14.3B
EBITDA $31.4B $23.1B $17.5B $21.4B $23.1B
EPS $10.21 $7.04 $4.07 $6.03 $7.23
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $262.0B $342.0B $260.9B $276.5B $349.6B
Total Current Assets $596.1B $635.3B $560.2B $549.1B $738.1B
Total Assets $2.3T $2.4T $2.4T $2.4T $2.7T
Current Liabilities $1.8T $1.9T $1.8T $1.8T $1.5T
Long-Term Debt $254.4B $271.6B $286.6B $287.3B $315.8B
Total Liabilities $2.1T $2.2T $2.2T $2.1T $2.4T
Total Equity $202.0B $201.2B $205.5B $208.6B $212.3B
Retained Earnings $184.9B $194.7B $198.9B $206.3B $215.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:03am (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $47.1B $25.1B -$73.4B -$19.7B -$67.6B
Capital Expenditure -$4.1B -$5.6B -$6.6B -$6.5B -$6.5B
Free Cash Flow $43.0B $19.4B -$80.0B -$26.2B -$74.2B
Acquisitions (net) $190.0M $5.7B -$1.4B $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$11.4B -$3.3B -$6.1B -$7.5B -$18.3B
Net Change in Cash -$47.6B $80.0B -$81.1B $15.6B $73.0B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:59am (just now)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $97.4B
$95.1B – $101.3B
$101.9B
$101.7B – $102.1B
$105.8B
$103.0B – $109.8B
$110.2B
$107.2B – $114.3B
EBITDA $19.5B
$19.0B – $20.2B
$20.4B
$20.3B – $20.4B
$21.1B
$20.6B – $21.9B
$22.0B
$21.4B – $22.8B
Net Income $22.8B
$21.1B – $24.6B
$26.2B
$23.9B – $28.5B
$30.7B
$29.6B – $32.2B
$35.2B
$34.0B – $37.0B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:04am (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +25.5% +55.0% +9.9% -1.4%
Gross Profit Growth -8.5% -2.1% +4.7% +5.4%
Operating Income Growth -31.5% -31.4% +32.0% +16.3%
Net Income Growth -32.4% -37.8% +37.4% +12.5%
EBITDA Growth -26.6% -24.3% +22.2% +8.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-08 DUGAN JOHN CUNNINGHAM S-Sale 2,117.00 $125.30 $265,260
2026-04-20 Livingstone David F-InKind 85,180.13 $132.18 $11.3M
2026-04-15 Skyler Edward S-Sale 25,000.00 $131.41 $3.3M
2026-04-15 Giles Nicole S-Sale 12,732.00 $131.80 $1.7M
2026-04-01 von Koskull Casper Wilhelm A-Award 6.83 $110.99 $758
2026-04-01 von Koskull Casper Wilhelm A-Award 28.51 $110.99 $3,164
2026-04-01 Turley James S A-Award 211.22 $110.99 $23,443
2026-04-01 Turley James S A-Award 6.83 $110.99 $758
2026-04-01 TAYLOR DIANA L A-Award 323.88 $110.99 $35,947
2026-04-01 TAYLOR DIANA L A-Award 6.83 $110.99 $758
2026-04-01 REINER GARY M A-Award 405.00 $110.99 $44,951
2026-04-01 MOULDS JONATHAN PAUL A-Award 12.14 $110.99 $1,348
2026-04-01 MOULDS JONATHAN PAUL A-Award 3.08 $110.99 $342
2026-04-01 MOULDS JONATHAN PAUL A-Award 244.95 $110.99 $27,186
2026-04-01 James Renee Jo A-Award 168.04 $110.99 $18,651
2026-04-01 James Renee Jo A-Award 6.83 $110.99 $758
2026-04-01 HENNES DUNCAN P A-Award 211.22 $110.99 $23,443
2026-04-01 HENNES DUNCAN P A-Award 6.83 $110.99 $758
2026-04-01 DUGAN JOHN CUNNINGHAM A-Award 563.11 $110.99 $62,500
2026-04-01 Dailey Grace E A-Award 6.83 $110.99 $758
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 6:53pm (2d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-04 $0.60 2026-04-02 2026-05-04 2026-05-22
2026-02-02 $0.60 2026-01-12 2026-02-02 2026-02-27
2025-11-03 $0.60 2025-10-13 2025-11-03 2025-11-26
2025-08-04 $0.60 2025-07-14 2025-08-04 2025-08-22
2025-05-05 $0.56 2025-04-03 2025-05-05 2025-05-23
2025-02-03 $0.56 2025-01-14 2025-02-03 2025-02-28
2024-11-04 $0.56 2024-10-23 2024-11-04 2024-11-22
2024-08-05 $0.56 2024-07-18 2024-08-05 2024-08-23
2024-05-03 $0.53 2024-04-03 2024-05-06 2024-05-24
2024-02-02 $0.53 2024-01-11 2024-02-05 2024-02-23
2023-11-03 $0.53 2023-10-19 2023-11-06 2023-11-22
2023-08-04 $0.53 2023-07-20 2023-08-07 2023-08-25
2023-04-28 $0.51 2023-04-03 2023-05-01 2023-05-26
2023-02-03 $0.51 2023-01-11 2023-02-06 2023-02-24
2022-11-04 $0.51 2022-10-20 2022-11-07 2022-11-23
2022-07-29 $0.51 2022-07-21 2022-08-01 2022-08-26
2022-04-29 $0.51 2022-04-01 2022-05-02 2022-05-27
2022-02-04 $0.51 2022-01-12 2022-02-07 2022-02-25
2021-10-29 $0.51 2021-10-21 2021-11-01 2021-11-24
2021-07-30 $0.51 2021-07-22 2021-08-02 2021-08-27
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for C — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-26 03:07:02
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly undervalued — fair value $160-175 if Q1 2026's 13% margin and $5.8B NI proves repeatable; starter position justified at 1.0x book with tight stop on Q2 reversion below $4B NI.

Looking at the raw numbers first: Q1 2026 revenue of $44.14B with $5.79B NI (13.1% margin) is genuinely the best quarter in the dataset — a meaningful step up from the $40-43B band that dominated 2024-2025. Net income jumped 42% YoY vs Q1 2025's $4.06B. That's not "managed decline." Annual 2025 revenue of $168.3B was slightly down from $170.7B in 2024, but NI grew from $12.68B to $14.27B — operating leverage is real, with operating income up to $19.83B from $17.05B. The earnings CAGR of 24.3% over the window is flattered by the 2023 trough ($9.23B) but the trajectory off that base is unambiguously up. At $144.91 with P/B of ~1.0x and a 2.53% dividend yield, you're paying tangible book for a bank earning roughly 7.5% ROE and visibly improving.

I largely disagree with the Market Forces "managed decline" framing and partially disagree with the synthesis's "Reasonable Premium" verdict — I think this leans cheap, not premium. The bear case (bloated conglomerate, perpetual transformation) was correct for a decade, but the Q1 2026 print is the kind of data point that breaks that narrative if it repeats. P/B of 1.00 on a US money-center bank is the floor; JPM trades at ~2x, BAC at ~1.2x, WFC at ~1.5x. Even if Citi deserves a structural discount for franchise quality, the gap is wide. The Pre-Flight note about "0.65x tangible book" is stale or wrong — at $144.91 and current equity, P/TB is closer to 0.85-0.90x, still a discount but not the distressed level implied.

The contrarian pushback I'd actually take seriously: the cash flow statement is ugly and the synthesis underweights it. Operating CF of -$67.6B and FCF of -$74.1B in 2025 are not just "bank accounting noise" — they reflect balance sheet expansion and trading book dynamics that can reverse violently. Current ratio of 0.48 is normal for a bank but offers no cushion if funding markets tighten. ROIC of 0.59% (even acknowledging the TTM tag) and ROA of 0.54% are dismal — this is still a capital-inefficient institution. The Q4 2025 margin dip to 6% (NI $2.43B on $40.86B) shows the volatility hasn't gone away; one strong Q1 doesn't make a trend. Insider activity is net selling (small but directionally negative), and the awards are routine comp, not conviction buys. If Q2 2026 reverts to the $3-4B NI band, the re-rating thesis dies.

Net verdict: I dissent from "Reasonable Premium" and from "Market Headwinds." At 1.0x book, 15.7x TTM P/E, 2.5% yield, and a visibly accelerating earnings line (24% CAGR, 12.5% recent YoY, Q1 step-change), the risk/reward skews favorable for a patient holder. The transformation may never produce JPM-like returns, but it doesn't need to — it just needs to deliver sustained 9-10% ROTCE to justify 1.1-1.2x book, implying $160-175. The narrative engine is right that this is anchored, not story-driven, which means a clean earnings progression is the catalyst — no myth required. Risk: another quarter like Q4 2025's 6% margin print and the multiple compresses back to 0.85x book ($125). I'd own it here with a hard re-evaluation on the Q2 2026 print; the asymmetry is decent but the thesis is one bad quarter away from breaking.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-26 03:07:09
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I disagree with Opus — the current performance does not justify a $160-175 valuation. Citigroup's cash flow volatility and capital inefficiency suggest a fair value closer to $130-140, assuming the Q1 2026 improvements are not consistently repeatable.

My independent analysis of Citigroup's raw data reveals a mixed picture, with some positive trends but also significant concerns. The most recent quarter (Q1 2026) shows promising results: revenue reached $44.14 billion with a net income of $5.79 billion, reflecting a 13.1% margin, which is a substantial improvement from previous quarters. This indicates clear operating leverage as net income rose by 42% year-over-year compared to Q1 2025's $4.06 billion. However, the annual revenue for 2025 of $168.3 billion is a slight decrease from 2024's $170.71 billion, indicating some volatility. The free cash flow situation is alarming, with a negative $74.15 billion, suggesting potential liquidity issues despite a considerable cash position of $349.58 billion. This is further compounded by operating cash flows being deeply negative at -$67.63 billion, which might not be easily dismissed as mere accounting noise.

I agree with Opus on the significance of Q1 2026's financials. The 13.1% margin and $5.79 billion net income indeed stand out as a potential turning point for Citigroup. The operating leverage leading to a 24.3% earnings CAGR is noteworthy and suggests a positive trajectory off the 2023 trough. However, I diverge from Opus's optimism regarding the company's valuation. While they see Citigroup as modestly undervalued, citing P/B ratios compared to peers, I believe the cash flow volatility and poor ROIC (0.59%) and ROA (0.54%) cannot be overlooked. These indicate inefficiencies and potential risks that justify a more cautious valuation approach. The narrative of a "managed decline" might be too harsh, but I am not convinced that a single quarter's performance can entirely break the long-standing narrative of underperformance.

The Delvantic AI Findings assert that the market's thesis is anchored in fundamentals rather than stories, which aligns with my view that Citigroup does not have the narrative weight of a transformative growth stock. I concur with Opus that the insider activity, which is largely net selling, is a negative signal, though its impact might be limited given the volumes involved. The concern about the company's capital efficiency and liquidity resilience remains valid, especially in light of potential macroeconomic headwinds, which could challenge Citigroup's ability to maintain its current trajectory.

A careful skeptic might argue that the recent positive quarterly performance is an anomaly rather than a trend. They would point to the significant negative cash flows and the volatility in net margins, such as the dip to 6% in Q4 2025, as evidence that the company's transformation narrative is far from complete. Additionally, they might question whether Citigroup can sustain a 9-10% return on tangible common equity without further significant restructuring or external financial pressure.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30