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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Citigroup Inc. (C) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -32 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 16 · Value -72 · Sentiment 28 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $114.63 vs $132.45 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Citigroup Inc.
C NYSECitigroup Inc. is a global holding company that provides a comprehensive array of financial products and services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions worldwide. It operates through key segments including Services, which encompasses treasury and trade solutions, securities services, and agency securities lending; Markets, offering investment banking, equities, fixed income, currencies, commodities trading, and hedging; Banking, focused on corporate lending, commercial banking, and capital markets origination; Wealth, delivering private banking, investment management, and wealth advisory; and U.S., providing personal banking, credit cards, and retail services. Citigroup Inc. supports diverse clients with digital platforms, global transaction services, and risk management solutions, playing a pivotal role in facilitating international trade, capital flows, and wealth preservation in major financial markets. Founded in 1812 and headquartered in New York, New York, it stands as a cornerstone of the diversified banking sector.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 6.99
Total Equity: $213.82B
Shares: 2,046,638,054
Total Debt: $367.71B
Cash: $349.58B
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $367.71B
Cash: $349.58B
Revenue: $85.21B
Revenue: $85.21B
Revenue: $85.21B
Total Equity: $213.82B
Tax Rate: 27.1%
Equity: $213.82B
Total Debt: $367.71B
Cash: $349.58B
Current Liabilities: N/A
Long-Term Debt: $315.83B
Total Debt: $367.71B
Total Equity: $213.82B
Shares: 2,046,638,054
Shares: 2,046,638,054
CapEx: -$6.52B
Shares: 2,046,638,054
Stock Price: $132.45
Net Income: $14.31B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 1:42pm (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $71.9B | $75.3B | $78.5B | $81.1B | $85.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $26.7B | $28.3B | $30.7B | $29.7B | $30.8B |
| Operating Income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income | $22.0B | $14.8B | $9.2B | $12.7B | $14.3B |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $10.80 | $7.04 | $4.07 | $6.03 | $7.11 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $10.14 | $7.00 | $4.04 | $5.94 | $6.99 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:16am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $262.0B | $342.0B | $260.9B | $276.5B | $349.6B |
| Total Current Assets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Assets | $2.3T | $2.4T | $2.4T | $2.4T | $2.7T |
| Current Liabilities | — | — | — | — | — |
| Long-Term Debt | $254.4B | $271.6B | $286.6B | $287.3B | $315.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $2.1T | $2.2T | $2.2T | $2.1T | $2.4T |
| Total Equity | $202.7B | $201.8B | $206.3B | $209.4B | $213.8B |
| Retained Earnings | $184.9B | $194.7B | $198.9B | $206.3B | $215.1B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 1:42pm (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $61.2B | $25.1B | -$73.4B | -$19.7B | -$67.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$4.1B | -$5.6B | -$6.6B | -$6.5B | -$6.5B |
| Free Cash Flow | $57.1B | $19.4B | -$80.0B | -$26.2B | -$74.2B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$4.3B | $47.7B | $860.0M | $6.1B | $18.7B |
| Dividends Paid | -$5.2B | -$5.0B | -$5.2B | -$5.2B | -$5.4B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$7.6B | -$3.3B | -$2.0B | -$2.5B | -$13.3B |
| Net Change in Cash | -$47.6B | $80.0B | -$81.1B | $15.6B | $73.0B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 1:42pm (24d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +4.8% | +4.2% | +3.3% | +5.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income Growth | -32.4% | -37.8% | +37.4% | +12.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | — | — |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:17am (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-02 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-03 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-04 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-05 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-03 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-04 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-05 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-03 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-02 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-03 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-04 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
| 2023-04-28 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-03 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-04 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-07-29 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-04-29 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-04 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2021-10-29 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2021-07-30 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a more nuanced story than "fully priced turnaround." Q1-Q3 2025 showed genuine operating leverage: revenue held ~$21.6-22.1B with net income running $3.75-4.06B (17-18.8% margins), a real step-up from 2024's $3.2-3.4B/16% cadence. Then Q4 2025 collapsed to $19.87B revenue and $2.47B NI (12.4% margin) — sequentially worse than Q4 2024's $2.86B. That's not seasonal noise dressed up; that's a genuine deceleration into year-end, and it's exactly what the "Revenue Confidence: decelerating" flag is picking up. Full-year 2025 NI of $14.31B on $85.21B revenue is a legitimate 13% earnings beat over 2024, but the exit-run rate suggests 2026 consensus needs to come down, not up. At $132.45 and 18.9x trailing P/E, you're paying peer multiples (JPM ~14x, BAC ~14x, WFC ~14x) for the worst ROE in the group at 6.69%.
The bank-specific caveats deserve more weight than the models gave them. Operating CF of -$67.6B and FCF of -$74.2B are meaningless for a bank — those reflect trading book and loan portfolio movements, not earnings quality. The "Poor Cash Flow Quality" flag and the synthesis warning that "reported earnings may not reflect reality" are misapplied here; for a diversified bank, NI and ROE are the honest metrics, and NI is real. That said, ROE of 6.69% versus JPM's ~17% and BAC's ~9% is the actual damning number. Citi earns roughly its cost of equity in a benign credit environment with the yield curve un-inverted — this is as good as it gets cyclically, and returns are still subscale. The 1.27x P/B (roughly 0.9x tangible book after adjusting for ~$25B goodwill) is where the market's real verdict lives, not the P/E.
I largely agree with the synthesis fair value near $110 but for different reasons than the model. The DCF anchor is doing the wrong work — for a bank, normalize on ROE × book. At sustained 8% ROE (a realistic 2026-27 outcome if transformation continues) on ~$104/share tangible book, and applying a 1.0-1.1x TBV multiple (peer-appropriate for that return level), you get $104-115. The current $132.45 embeds ~10% ROE by 2027 — Fraser's stated target, but she's been at this since March 2021 with the number still stuck at 6-7%. The thesis evaluation score of -8 (bear-tilted) feels directionally right; the Market Forces "value trap" framing is too harsh given the earnings growth is real, but the "losing share in a booming industry" point is correct — investment banking peers grew faster in 2025.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: rates normalization plus continued expense discipline could push 2026 NI to $16-17B, and if the market grants 12x on that with a modest TBV re-rate to 1.1x, you get $140-150. But that requires Q4's weakness to be one-off (unproven), Markets revenue to recover (structurally subscale per bears), and the transformation to actually finish. Insider data is useless — only routine award grants dated 2026-07-01, no open-market buying signal. The Q4 miss is the tell: at $132 you're paying for execution that just wobbled visibly. I dissent modestly from the synthesis's -17% downside — I think fair value is $110-118, so downside is closer to -12%, and the asymmetry isn't compelling either direction until we see Q1 2026. This is a hold-if-owned, don't-chase-if-not situation, and if forced to lean, the Q4 print says trim.
GPT Reading
At $132.45, Citi is being asked to wear a quality multiple without delivering quality returns. The core numbers are better than the old “broken bank” caricature, but not good enough to justify nearly 19x earnings and 1.27x book on a 6.7% ROE. Revenue has improved steadily — $71.9B in 2021 to $85.2B in 2025, about 4% annualized — and net income recovered from the weak 2023 base of $9.2B to $14.3B in 2025. But that “recovery” mostly gets you back to roughly 2022 earnings of $14.9B and still far below 2021’s $22.0B. The market cap of $222B implies investors are paying up as if Citi is already on a path to double-digit sustainable returns; the actual annual earnings yield here is only about 6.4%, which is not compelling for a globally systemic bank with middling profitability and obvious execution demands.
The quarterly pattern reinforces that this is a decent-but-not-great earnings machine, not a proven transformation winner. Through the first three quarters of 2025, revenue ran $21.6B, $21.7B, and $22.1B, with net margins climbing to 18.8%, 18.5%, and 17.0%; then Q4 fell back to $19.9B revenue and just $2.47B of net income, a 12.4% margin. Some seasonality and episodic costs are normal in banking, but when a turnaround story deserves a premium, I want to see cleaner evidence of operating leverage and a more durable margin profile. Instead, what I see is a bank whose revenues are stable enough, but whose earnings power still oscillates too much relative to the valuation being paid. If Citi were trading around book or a bit below, this variability would be tolerable. At a notable premium to book with ROE still subpar, it is not.
The biggest trap in the data is to over-penalize the cash flow statement. Operating cash flow of negative $67.6B and free cash flow of negative $74.2B look ugly, but for a bank those figures are heavily distorted by deposit, loan, and balance-sheet movements; I do not think “negative FCF” is the decisive bear point. The decisive bear point is simpler: equity of $213.8B is supporting only $14.3B of earnings. That 6.7% return on equity is weak, full stop. A strong global bank trading at 1.27x book should be showing something closer to 10%-12%+ through-cycle returns or have a very clear, near-dated bridge to them. The balance sheet itself is not the issue — debt of $367.7B against $349.6B cash is normal enough in banking context — but the capital is not yet earning enough. The stock is priced for a rerating that the reported profitability has not earned.
The best counterargument is that the direction of travel is undeniably better. Annual net income has risen from $9.2B in 2023 to $12.7B in 2024 and $14.3B in 2025, while revenue rose 5.1% year over year in the latest annual comparison. Quarterly net income in 2025 was higher than 2024 in every quarter, and Q1-Q3 2025 all printed above $4.0B, versus $3.2B-$3.4B in the comparable 2024 periods. That is real progress. If management can convert that into sustained quarterly earnings of roughly $4B+ with fewer cleanup charges and keep revenue in the $85B-$90B range, today’s multiple could compress quickly on forward earnings. On that view, the market is not paying for current 6.7% ROE but for a credible move toward something much better. I weigh that less heavily because the current data still show a bank needing the future to justify the present price, and banks that require flawless multi-year execution usually should not command premium valuations before the returns actually show up.
What would change my mind is not another quarter of okay revenue; it is proof of structurally better returns. If Citi can deliver annual net income above $18B without a materially larger equity base — implying ROE moving toward 8.5%-9% as an intermediate step — and hold quarterly net margins mostly in the high teens rather than dropping to 12%-14% in weaker quarters, the stock would deserve more benefit of the doubt. More specifically, I would want to see at least two to three consecutive quarters with revenue above $21B and net income above $4B, plus evidence that 2026 is tracking materially above 2025’s $14.3B. Absent that, the current price looks like investors are paying in advance for a transformation that remains only partially visible in the reported numbers.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a story of a bank that has clawed earnings back from the 2023 trough but has not earned the multiple the market is assigning. Full-year 2025 revenue of $85.21B is only 5.1% above 2024’s $81.09B and sits on a 4.2% five-year CAGR—respectable for a mega-bank, yet nowhere near enough to justify a 18.9x trailing P/E or a 1.27x price-to-book when ROE is still a dismal 6.7%. Net income of $14.31B looks better than 2023’s $9.23B and even edges 2024’s $12.68B, but it remains 35% below the 2021 peak of $21.95B. The sequential picture is worse: Q4 2025 revenue collapsed to $19.87B with net margin compressing to 12.4% from the 17–18.8% range that prevailed through the first three quarters. That is not the clean trajectory a turnaround premium requires.
Balance-sheet optics are mixed and cash-flow optics are ugly. Equity of $213.82B against $367.71B of debt produces a 1.72 debt-to-equity ratio that is normal for the sector, and the near-match of cash ($349.58B) to debt keeps net leverage manageable. Yet operating cash flow of –$67.63B and free cash flow of –$74.15B flag poor earnings quality even after allowing for the usual bank balance-sheet noise. A 1.8% dividend yield funded at a 37.5% payout is sustainable only if the earnings base holds; the Q4 margin drop already tests that assumption. Insider activity is pure award noise—no open-market conviction either way.
I therefore read the stock as overvalued at $132.45. The prior models’ composite fair value near $110 is directionally correct: a mid-single-digit ROE franchise does not deserve a 19x earnings multiple or a 20% premium to tangible book while revenue growth decelerates and cash conversion stays negative. The market is paying for Jane Fraser’s cost-cut and simplification story before the income statement has delivered peer-level returns.
The strongest counter-argument is the earnings momentum itself. Net income CAGR of 24.5% and the 12.8% year-over-year lift in recent earnings show real operating leverage is appearing; if the Services franchise continues to scale and the announced $2–3B of cost saves land cleanly, ROE could climb toward 10–12% within two years and retroactively justify today’s multiple. Activists and sell-side turnaround notes lean on exactly that path, and a bank trading only 1.27x book is not priced for perfection in absolute terms. I weigh this less heavily because the same data show revenue defense already fraying (Q4 drop, lagging sector peers) and because banks that promise ROE expansion rarely receive the full multiple re-rating until the ROE is visible in the rear-view mirror—not priced in advance.
I would flip to neutral or constructive only on two concrete prints: a sustained ROE print above 10% for two consecutive quarters, or full-year 2026 revenue growth re-accelerating above 7% with net margins back above 17% and no further sequential revenue decline. Either would confirm the transformation is converting into durable economics rather than one-time cost optics.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Citigroup shows a steady top-line recovery from $71.9B (2021) to $85.2B (2025), with net income rebounding from the 2023 trough of $9.2B to $14.3B in 2025. Diluted shares have edged down from 2.16B to 2.05B (roughly -1.4% CAGR), so per-share value is being concentrated rather than diluted — a discipline point in the bank's favor. Insider activity is award-heavy with modest sales and zero open-market buys; nothing directional either way.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- CET1 ratio and regulatory capital trajectory in the latest 10-Q/K
- Progress on restructuring/divestitures (Banamex, exits of consumer businesses) and associated one-time charges
- Net interest margin trend and credit loss provisioning
- Efficiency ratio vs. peer banks (JPM, BAC, WFC)
- Any consent orders or regulatory remediation costs still outstanding
- Buyback authorization size and pace relative to earnings
The e2e composite fair value is $110.39 and the signal-adjusted FV is $109.95, both well below the $132.45 price - implying about -17% downside rather than upside. The anchored-PE cross-check lands at the same $110 level, so this isn't a single runaway method; multiple lenses converge on a deserved price in the $108-112 zone. The earnings-quality haircut (weak, some red flags) argues for the lower end of that range, not the higher.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Forward ROE trajectory in the next 2-3 quarters vs the ~11-12% peer bar implied by the multiple
- Expense run-rate and severance charges - is cost-out actually landing in the P&L?
- Services and Wealth segment growth and margins - the parts the bull case leans on
- Any one-time gains or DTA effects inflating recent EPS
- Regulatory capital requirements post-Basel endgame that could constrain buybacks
The tape is mildly constructive (regime +22, VIX 16, S&P barely off highs) and Citi's 1.09 beta means it participates without being whipped. More importantly, the active narrative on this name is a fallen-angel turnaround under new leadership - moderate intensity, moderate durability - and the recent flow (Zacks Strong Buy addition, Strong Buy income list inclusion on July 31) directly reinforces that story rather than fighting it. Analyst tone toward the money-center cohort is warming as the Fed's higher-for-longer stance is being framed as an NII tailwind (JPM piece), and Citi rides that coattail even without being the headline name.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any commentary from Citi management or peers that reframes the turnaround pace - a miss on cost targets would crack the fallen-angel narrative fast
- Whether the buy-side rotation into money-center banks broadens beyond JPM to include Citi in coverage upgrades
- VIX above 20 or a sharp curve move - would flip the tape from supportive to hostile for a 1.09-beta re-rating story
- Sell-side target revisions post next print - the premium to DCF needs analyst validation to hold
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 3, 2026, C was $132.45. We expect it to be $120.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $105.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 3, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.