Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$44.60
6-month call
Bull +8.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$48.40
Great value below
$40.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+8.5% to $48.40
Predicted High
$48.40
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$43.80
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:00 am
Bull
CART trends higher to
$48.40
(+8.5% from $44.60)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCART sits slightly above composite fair value but well below DCF and signal-adjusted anchors, with quiet quality/sentiment tailwinds and low beta in a neutral tape. Path drifts modestly higher toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity pulls toward the mid-50s deserved zone, though absent a catalyst the ascent is gradual with mid-window chop.
Invalidated ifA close below $40 on deteriorating volume, or a break above $52 confirming re-rate toward DCF anchor
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $44.60 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $44.60 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $40.58–$48.62 typical range · internal point $44.30 | — | ±9.0% | 6/10 | Neutral tape, low beta, mean-revert near current |
| What actually happened: closed $48.88 on Aug 14, 2026 = +9.6% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 10.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $38.77–$50.43 typical range · internal point $43.80 | — | ±13.1% | 5/10 | Mild risk-off drift, no catalyst, value slightly rich |
| What actually happened: closed $50.05 on Sep 1, 2026 = +12.2% vs the call (predicted -1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.1%: inside the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $44.90 | — | +0.7% | 5/10 | Stabilizes near composite fair value zone |
| What actually happened: closed $43.12 on Sep 30, 2026 = -3.3% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $46.20 | — | +3.6% | 5/10 | Earnings-season lift, quality signals reassert |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $47.00 | — | +5.4% | 4/10 | Grinding toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $47.80 | — | +7.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, DCF gap slowly narrows |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $48.40 | — | +8.5% | 3/10 | Slow convergence toward deserved value, no story engine |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $47.36 (+6.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $44.60 |
| Composite fair value | $40.71 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $61.90 |
| DCF fair value | $61.56 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $51.22 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $40.00 |
| Value net score | -2 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +15 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.7% 3m 45.3% 6m 44.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.49 3m 0.25 5m 0.19 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 20.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CART-20260730-182637-4f8b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CART-20260730-184835-10ed |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CART-20260730-184835-10ed |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CART-20260730-184835-10ed |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CART-20260730-184835-10ed |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CART-20260730-182637-4f8b |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | CART-20260730-182637-4f8b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $44.60 | $48.40 | +8.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.