Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$776.51
6-month call
Bear -8.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$712.00
Great value below
$520.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.3% to $712.00
Predicted High
$780.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$712.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:19 pm
Bear
CASY trends lower to
$712.00
(-8.3% from $776.51)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisCASY trades well above every fundamental anchor with only a mild sentiment tailwind and a defensive-quality narrative holding it up. Near-term momentum and risk-on regime keep the price sticky, but value gravity should erode the premium modestly over 6 months, converging toward the deterministic baseline rather than the full DCF.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $820 on a strong earnings beat, or a break below $700 accelerating toward $600, would falsify this drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $776.51 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $776.51 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $700.47–$852.55 typical range · internal point $780.00 | — | ±9.8% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and low-beta bid keep price sticky |
| What actually happened: closed $629.03 on Sep 9, 2026 = -19.0% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 19.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $666.32–$886.70 typical range · internal point $778.00 | — | ±14.2% | 6/10 | Quiet quality narrative absorbs mild valuation overhang |
| What actually happened: closed $598.46 on Sep 25, 2026 = -22.9% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 23.1 pp · accuracy 3/10 · typical range ±14.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $765.00 | — | -1.5% | 5/10 | Early value gravity as premium narrative cools |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $752.00 | — | -3.2% | 5/10 | Possible earnings print introduces two-sided risk |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $740.00 | — | -4.7% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $725.00 | — | -6.6% | 4/10 | Multiple compression toward anchored-PE ceiling |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $712.00 | — | -8.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $711.73 (-8.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $776.51 |
| Composite fair value | $446.80 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $425.93 |
| DCF fair value | $330.84 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $856.74 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $520.00 |
| Value net score | -79 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +63 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.3% 3m 49.2% 6m 40.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.19 3m -1.33 5m -0.43 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 13.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | CASY-20260827-013001-e339 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CASY-20260827-015920-7ccc |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CASY-20260827-015920-7ccc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CASY-20260827-015920-7ccc |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CASY-20260827-015920-7ccc |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | CASY-20260827-013001-e339 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | CASY-20260827-013001-e339 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $776.51 | $712.00 | -8.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.