Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$814.85
6-month call
Bear -9.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$735.00
Great value below
$400.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.8% to $735.00
Predicted High
$812.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$735.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:44 am
Bear
CAT trends lower to
$735.00
(-9.8% from $814.85)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCAT is materially overvalued versus all fundamental anchors but momentum and the AI-power narrative have carried it well above fair value. With no earnings catalyst in-window and a fragile sentiment backdrop, expect grind-lower drift as narrative fatigue and mean-reversion pressure build, though high beta keeps early moves choppy rather than one-directional.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above 860 on renewed AI-power-gen orders, or a beat-driven surge, would invalidate the fade thesis; conversely a break below 720 confirms it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $814.85 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $814.85 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $733.26–$896.44 typical range · internal point $812.00 | — | ±10.0% | 6/10 | Neutral regime, no catalyst, chop near current level |
| What actually happened: closed $856.56 on Aug 14, 2026 = +5.1% vs the call (predicted -0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 5.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.0%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $696.62–$933.08 typical range · internal point $805.00 | — | ±14.5% | 5/10 | Sentiment drag begins, high beta amplifies drift |
| What actually happened: closed $779.16 on Sep 1, 2026 = -4.4% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.2 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±14.5%: inside the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $790.00 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Narrative fatigue on AI-power story, mild fade |
| What actually happened: closed $810.79 on Sep 30, 2026 = -0.5% vs the call (predicted -3.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $775.00 | — | -4.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk, value gravity starts pulling |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $760.00 | — | -6.7% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, capex cycle doubts linger |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $745.00 | — | -8.6% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, profit-taking on 26 gains |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $735.00 | — | -9.8% | 4/10 | Mean reversion toward anchored PE, still above fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $716.48 (-12.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $814.85 |
| Composite fair value | $332.30 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $301.09 |
| DCF fair value | $205.28 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $751.49 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $400.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +59 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.3% 3m 50.3% 6m 44.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.00 3m 2.16 5m 1.88 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 25.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | CAT-20260801-001034-7e43 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-CAT-20260801-003431-589d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-CAT-20260801-003431-589d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-CAT-20260801-003431-589d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-CAT-20260801-003431-589d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | CAT-20260801-001034-7e43 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | CAT-20260801-001034-7e43 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.