Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$352.54
6-month call
Neutral -2.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$345.50
Great value below
$275.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-2.0% to $345.50
Predicted High
$355.80
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$344.00
at 5 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:17 am
Neutral
CB trends range-bound to
$345.50
(-2.0% from $352.54)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCB is a high-quality compounder trading modestly above fair value in a risk-on tape with negative beta, so near-term drift is mildly positive on momentum and quality bid, but value gravity toward the low-$300s reasserts over the medium term as the priced-for-perfection overhang caps upside.
Invalidated ifA break above $370 on sustained volume or below $325 would invalidate the mean-reverting drift thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $352.54 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $352.54 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $335.53–$369.55 typical range · internal point $354.20 | — | ±4.8% | 7/10 | risk-on tape and low-beta bid support mild drift |
| What actually happened: closed $340.92 on Aug 19, 2026 = -3.3% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.8 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $327.88–$377.20 typical range · internal point $355.80 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | quality compounder narrative sustains through quiet August |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $353.00 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | no earnings catalyst, valuation overhang begins pressing |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $349.50 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | value gravity toward composite fair value asserts |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $346.00 | — | -1.9% | 4/10 | year-end positioning trims priced-for-perfection defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $344.00 | — | -2.4% | 4/10 | drift toward anchored PE around $280 continues slowly |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $345.50 | — | -2.0% | 3/10 | quality floor holds near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $347.16 (-1.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $352.54 |
| Composite fair value | $280.69 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $279.29 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $280.69 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $275.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.4% 3m 24.2% 6m 21.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.98 3m -0.90 5m -0.44 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 11.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | CB-20260806-002753-1a2a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-CB-20260806-010428-819c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-CB-20260806-010428-819c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-CB-20260806-010428-819c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-CB-20260806-010428-819c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | CB-20260806-002753-1a2a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | CB-20260806-002753-1a2a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $352.54 | $345.50 | -2.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.