Made on
Jul 27, 2026
Price at call
$139.46
6-month call
Neutral -0.3%
Target by Jan 2027
$139.00
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-0.3% to $139.00
Predicted High
$139.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$133.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 27, 2026 12:57 am
Neutral
CBRE trends range-bound to
$139.00
(-0.3% from $139.46)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCBRE trades slightly above composite fair value ($128.93) with mildly negative sentiment and a rough trailing 6-month print, but quality is decent, earnings momentum is strong (5/5 beats), and beta is very low. Expect modest mean reversion toward fair value near-term, then stabilization with a slight recovery bias as CRE-infrastructure narrative and continued earnings beats reassert.
Invalidated ifA close below $115 on deteriorating CRE fundamentals, or above $150 on a decisive breakout, would falsify this mild-drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $139.46 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 27, 2026 | — | $139.46 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 10, 2026 | $130.61–$148.31 typical range · internal point $137.80 | — | ±6.3% | 6/10 | Mild drift toward fair value, neutral regime |
| What actually happened: closed $148.18 on Aug 7, 2026 = +6.3% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 7.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.3%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 27, 2026 | $126.64–$152.28 typical range · internal point $135.50 | — | ±9.2% | 6/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite anchor |
| 2 months | Sep 27, 2026 | $133.00 | — | -4.6% | 5/10 | Sentiment headwind and no catalyst yet |
| 3 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $134.50 | — | -3.6% | 5/10 | Earnings print likely reinforces beat streak |
| 4 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $136.50 | — | -2.1% | 4/10 | Post-earnings stabilization, low-beta support |
| 5 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $138.00 | — | -1.0% | 4/10 | CRE infrastructure narrative supports recovery |
| 6 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $139.00 | — | -0.3% | 3/10 | Convergence near baseline, muted 6mo return |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $138.73 (-0.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $139.46 |
| Composite fair value | $128.93 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $128.93 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | -64 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +25 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.1% 3m 31.8% 6m 38.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.16 3m 0.18 5m 0.62 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -18.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | CBRE-20260727-000446-77a9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CBRE-20260727-004658-f5c9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CBRE-20260727-004658-f5c9 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CBRE-20260727-004658-f5c9 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CBRE-20260727-004658-f5c9 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | CBRE-20260727-000446-77a9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | CBRE-20260727-000446-77a9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $139.46 | $139.00 | -0.3% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.