Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$25.86
6-month call
Bear -18.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$21.20
Great value below
$15.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-18.0% to $21.20
Predicted High
$25.40
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$21.20
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-18.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:16 pm
Bear
CCL trends lower to
$21.20
(-18.0% from $25.86)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisCCL trades well above every fair-value anchor ($13.61 composite, $11.96 DCF) with weak quality and value lenses, but a neutral tape and no near-term earnings catalyst let it drift for weeks before value gravity and high beta reassert lower. Expect a modest early fade, a stall around $23-24, then steeper compression toward the deterministic $21 endpoint as fundamentals reprice.
Invalidated ifA close above $28.50 on rising volume or a Q4 booking/yield beat would falsify the fade and force higher targets.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $25.86 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $25.86 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $23.66–$28.06 typical range · internal point $25.40 | — | ±8.5% | 6/10 | Neutral regime, no catalyst, mild drift lower |
| What actually happened: closed $23.51 on Sep 4, 2026 = -9.1% vs the call (predicted -1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $22.67–$29.05 typical range · internal point $24.80 | — | ±12.3% | 6/10 | Value lens pressure builds, sentiment softens |
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $23.90 | — | -7.6% | 5/10 | Cyclical narrative fades, high beta amplifies |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $22.90 | — | -11.4% | 5/10 | Earnings season repricing toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $22.20 | — | -14.1% | 4/10 | Holiday tape, value gravity continues |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $21.60 | — | -16.5% | 4/10 | January reset, quality gap weighs |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $21.20 | — | -18.0% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $21.18 (-18.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $25.86 |
| Composite fair value | $13.61 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $12.05 |
| DCF fair value | $11.96 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $15.00 |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -24 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.0% 3m 42.7% 6m 51.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.73 3m 1.91 5m 2.36 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -15.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | CCL-20260825-070001-4027 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCL-20260825-071831-4832 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCL-20260825-071831-4832 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCL-20260825-071831-4832 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCL-20260825-071831-4832 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | CCL-20260825-070001-4027 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | CCL-20260825-070001-4027 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $25.86 | $21.20 | -18.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.