Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$30.92
6-month call
Bear -17.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$25.50
Great value below
$20.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-17.5% to $25.50
Predicted High
$31.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$25.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-17.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:41 am
Bear
CDRE trends lower to
$25.50
(-17.5% from $30.92)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCDRE trades roughly double composite fair value on a defense/platform narrative, but recent 6-month price action is already down 24% and quality/value lenses are deeply negative. Expect near-term sentiment support in a risk-on regime, then gradual value gravity pulling the stock toward the mid-20s over the 6-month window, undershooting on any narrative crack.
Invalidated ifA break above $34 on defense-contract news, or conversely a break below $24 confirming accelerated de-rating, would invalidate the gradual-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $30.92 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $30.92 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $27.78–$34.06 typical range · internal point $31.20 | — | ±10.2% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and defense bid support near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $34.09 on Aug 19, 2026 = +10.3% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 9.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $26.36–$35.48 typical range · internal point $30.40 | — | ±14.7% | 5/10 | Narrative intact but momentum flat, no catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $29.20 | — | -5.6% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins as sentiment cools |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $28.00 | — | -9.4% | 5/10 | Earnings window pressures rich multiple |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $27.00 | — | -12.7% | 4/10 | Continued drift toward deterministic anchor |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $26.20 | — | -15.3% | 4/10 | Composite fair value pulls price lower |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $25.50 | — | -17.5% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $25.56 (-17.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $30.92 |
| Composite fair value | $15.09 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $11.51 |
| DCF fair value | $16.70 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $20.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -2 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 48.9% 3m 51.0% 6m 55.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.20 3m 1.08 5m 1.67 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -24.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | CDRE-20260803-120606-956c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CDRE-20260803-131414-d69c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CDRE-20260803-131414-d69c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CDRE-20260803-131414-d69c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CDRE-20260803-131414-d69c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | CDRE-20260803-120606-956c |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | CDRE-20260803-120606-956c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $30.92 | $25.50 | -17.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.