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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Cadre Holdings Inc. (CDRE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -39 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -2 · Value -69 · Sentiment 32 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $19.53 vs $30.64 at analysis
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Cadre Holdings Inc.
CDRE NYSECadre Holdings Inc. specializes in the design, manufacturing, and distribution of safety and survivability equipment for first responders, law enforcement, military, and emergency services personnel. The company offers a comprehensive portfolio that includes body armor, duty gear, holsters, less-lethal munitions, and detection devices. A key feature of Cadre Holdings Inc.'s operations is its focus on high-quality materials and innovative design, ensuring that its products meet stringent safety standards while providing effective solutions in critical situations. The company's products serve crucial roles in various sectors, particularly influencing the defense, public safety, and law enforcement industries. Founded to address the needs of professionals in high-risk environments, Cadre Holdings Inc. is significant in the market for enhancing safety technologies, thereby supporting the protective equipment market's growth globally.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 1.02
Total Equity: $317.80M
Shares: 43,432,872
Total Debt: $307.25M
Cash: $122.90M
EBITDA: $85.98M
Total Debt: $307.25M
Cash: $122.90M
Revenue: $610.31M
Revenue: $610.31M
Revenue: $610.31M
Total Equity: $317.80M
Tax Rate: 29.2%
Equity: $317.80M
Total Debt: $307.25M
Cash: $122.90M
Current Liabilities: $104.50M
Long-Term Debt: $290.99M
Total Debt: $307.25M
Total Equity: $317.80M
Shares: 43,432,872
Shares: 43,432,872
CapEx: -$6.86M
Shares: 43,432,872
Stock Price: $30.49
Net Income: $44.14M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:49pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $427.3M | $457.8M | $482.5M | $567.6M | $610.3M |
| Cost of Revenue | $256.6M | $282.2M | $281.8M | $334.1M | $350.7M |
| Gross Profit | $170.7M | $175.7M | $200.7M | $233.5M | $259.6M |
| Operating Expenses | $119.0M | $159.0M | $144.2M | $166.7M | $192.3M |
| Operating Income | $51.7M | $16.7M | $56.5M | $66.8M | $67.4M |
| Net Income | $12.7M | $5.8M | $38.6M | $36.1M | $44.1M |
| EBITDA | $65.4M | $32.4M | $72.3M | $83.2M | $86.0M |
| EPS | $0.44 | $0.16 | $1.03 | $0.90 | $1.08 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.44 | $0.16 | $1.02 | $0.90 | $1.02 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:08pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | — | — | — | $124.9M | $122.9M |
| Total Current Assets | $160.0M | $197.0M | $245.8M | $327.6M | $365.9M |
| Total Assets | $311.8M | $392.0M | $431.2M | $652.7M | $770.0M |
| Current Liabilities | $74.6M | $78.9M | $95.2M | $94.1M | $104.5M |
| Long-Term Debt | $146.5M | $137.5M | $127.8M | $211.8M | $291.0M |
| Total Liabilities | $223.2M | $226.1M | $234.0M | $341.2M | $452.2M |
| Total Equity | $88.6M | $165.9M | $197.2M | $311.5M | $317.8M |
| Retained Earnings | -$37.1M | -$42.7M | -$16.1M | $6.1M | $34.8M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:49pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $40.1M | $46.4M | $73.2M | $31.8M | $63.7M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$2.8M | -$4.5M | -$6.7M | -$5.7M | -$6.9M |
| Free Cash Flow | $37.3M | $41.9M | $66.5M | $26.1M | $56.8M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | -$55.5M | — | -$141.8M | -$89.6M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$67.3M | -$10.1M | -$10.0M | $86.1M | $83.7M |
| Dividends Paid | -$12.8M | -$11.5M | -$12.0M | -$13.9M | -$15.4M |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $31.0M | $11.4M | $42.4M | $37.2M | $394,000 |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:49pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +7.1% | +5.4% | +17.6% | +7.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +2.9% | +14.3% | +16.3% | +11.2% |
| Operating Income Growth | -67.7% | +238.1% | +18.1% | +0.9% |
| Net Income Growth | -54.0% | +563.9% | -6.5% | +22.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | -50.5% | +123.2% | +15.1% | +3.4% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:09pm (20d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-30 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-31 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-01 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-02 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025-01-31 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-01 | $0.09 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-02 | $0.09 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-02 | $0.09 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-01 | $0.09 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-02 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-03 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-04 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-02 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-31 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-07-29 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-04-29 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-03 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-19 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:41Recovery pays +57%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 86%. Ratio 0.7:1.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($30.64) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +31% | 17.3% | $48.08 | +57% |
| Base — stabilizes | +21% | 15.0% | $31.17 | +2% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +10% | 12.8% | $19.47 | -36% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -5% | 3.9% | $4.19 | -86% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The trajectory here is uglier than the headline annuals suggest. Q1'26 revenue of $155.4M is fine on its own, but net income collapsed to $2.0M (1.3% margin) versus 7-8% margins in every quarter of 2025. That's not seasonality — Q1'25 did $9.2M on $130M of revenue. Something structural bit margins: input costs, integration expense, or a one-timer that the models mostly ignore. TTM net income is roughly $36-37M against a $1.32B market cap, so the trailing P/E is closer to 36x, not the 29.8x in the canonical block (which is stale annual). On 2025 full-year NI of $44.1M, you're paying 30x for a business whose most recent quarter earned an annualized ~$8M. That's the tell.
Revenue growth is real but slowing: 2023→2024 was +17.6%, 2024→2025 was +7.5%, and Q1'26 vs Q1'25 is +19.5% — but that's lapping an abnormally weak Q1'25 ($130M was the low quarter). Smooth it and you get high-single-digit organic growth at best, with margins going the wrong way. FCF CAGR is negative 7.5%, which contradicts the "strong cash flow quality" secondary signal — 2025 FCF of $56.8M against $44.1M NI is fine on conversion, but the multi-year direction is down. Debt/equity near 1.0 with $307M debt and $122M cash is manageable but not the fortress balance sheet you'd want if Safariland closes and adds leverage. ROIC of 9.5% is below what a "platform consolidator" narrative requires — genuine roll-up compounders earn 15%+ on incremental capital.
The synthesis $11.51 fair value strikes me as too punitive — that implies ~10x earnings on a business with 12.5% revenue CAGR, defensive end-markets, and 40%+ gross margins. A more defensible fair value: 18-22x normalized EPS of ~$1.10-1.25 gets you $20-27. The market-forces "structurally disadvantaged, losing share" claim is overstated — Cadre isn't losing share in body armor; law enforcement procurement is sticky and Safariland is a category leader. But the platform-monopoly narrative label is also wrong: this is a decent industrial roll-up, not a monopoly, and paying 30x trailing for a 7% organic grower with compressing margins is the actual mistake. The insider selling — 200,000 shares dumped in a single week in June 2026 against ~$30 — is a meaningful tell right at the current price zone, and the models undersell it. When management awards itself stock and immediately sells 4x the award, that's not portfolio rebalancing.
The contrarian case: Q1'26 margin compression is genuinely a one-quarter Safariland-related integration/deal cost, 2025's $167M Q4 run-rate resumes, and full-year 2026 delivers $680M revenue at 7.5% margins = $51M NI, putting forward P/E near 26x — still not cheap but not absurd for a defense-adjacent compounder with M&A optionality. That case requires believing management, believing the deal closes accretively, and ignoring the insider tape. I don't. My read: fair value $22-25 based on 20x normalized EPS with a haircut for margin uncertainty and pending deal risk. I partially agree with the synthesis direction (overvalued) but strongly dissent on magnitude — $11.51 is a DCF artifact that ignores strategic value, brand equity in Safariland/Med-Eng, and the switching costs in certified body armor. The market-forces "avoid or short" is too aggressive; this is a hold-to-avoid, not a short, because defense/first-responder tailwinds are real and a Safariland close could re-rate the stock briefly before reality reasserts. Wait for the Q2'26 print to confirm whether the margin collapse was transitory. If Q2 rebounds to 7%+ margins, revisit at $25. If it doesn't, fair value drops toward $18.
GPT Reading
Cadre looks like a decent business priced like a much better one. The operating history is respectable: revenue rose from $427.3M in 2021 to $610.3M in 2025, a 9%+ annualized clip, while gross margin improved from 39.9% to 42.5% and operating income climbed to $67.4M from $51.7M despite some volatility in between. 2025 was objectively solid: revenue up 7.5% to $610.3M, net income up 22% to $44.1M, operating cash flow $63.7M, free cash flow $56.8M on only $6.9M of capex. This is not a broken small-cap industrial. But the stock at $30.49 implies about 30x earnings, 17.5x EV/EBITDA, 2.46x EV/revenue, and roughly 23x FCF on a business whose normalized net margin is only around 7% and whose ROIC is 9.5%. That multiple would be easier to defend if the company were showing clean acceleration, but the most recent quarter does the opposite: Q1 2026 revenue was $155.4M, up from $130.1M a year ago, yet net income was only $2.0M, a 1.3% margin versus 7.1% last year. A one-quarter collapse in profitability does not pair well with a premium multiple.
What stands out most is the mismatch between the “steady compounder” profile and the actual quarterly lumpiness. Quarterly revenue has ranged from $109.4M to $176.0M over the last seven reported periods, and margins swung from 3.3% to 8.7% before dropping to 1.3% in the latest print. That can happen in government-exposed protective equipment businesses, but investors paying 30x earnings are usually underwriting resilience, not procurement timing and mix noise. The annual numbers also show that operating leverage is not especially strong: from 2024 to 2025, revenue increased $42.7M but operating income rose only $0.6M, so incremental margin was barely above 1%. Gross profit improved meaningfully, from $233.5M to $259.6M, but that gain mostly failed to show up at the operating line. That tells me SG&A, integration expense, product mix, or inflationary pressures are absorbing much of the scale benefit. If this is a roll-up or consolidation story, the burden of proof is higher than the current valuation suggests.
The balance sheet is fine, not pristine. Net debt is about $184M after subtracting $122.9M of cash from $307.3M of debt, and the current ratio of 3.5x gives liquidity comfort. But equity is only $317.8M, so debt/equity near 1.0x is meaningful for a company that does not generate huge excess returns on capital. Free cash flow of $56.8M is healthy, yet against a $1.32B market cap that is only a low-4% equity FCF yield. For a company with mid-single-digit to high-single-digit organic characteristics, uneven quarter-to-quarter earnings, and some leverage, that is not cheap. The insider selling in June 2026 is not dispositive on its own, but 200,000 shares sold across a few days is not the pattern I want to see after a quarter where earnings nearly vanished.
The strongest pushback is straightforward: the market may be looking through a messy quarter and valuing a strategic platform rather than trailing earnings. On that view, Cadre has already demonstrated durable demand, with annual revenue up 34% since 2021 and gross profit up 52%, while 2022’s depressed earnings were an anomaly that has clearly reversed. Net income of $44.1M and FCF of $56.8M suggest earnings quality is decent, and if the latest quarter reflects acquisition costs, temporary mix issues, or timing of large contracts, then a 1.3% margin is not the right base rate. A supporter would also note that at 42.5% gross margins and modest capex needs, even small improvements in overhead absorption can lift EPS materially. That is fair, and it is the best bull argument here. I weigh it differently because the current price already assumes that normalization happens quickly and sustainably; there is not enough valuation cushion if margins merely revert to the 7% area rather than expand.
What would change my mind is evidence that Q1 2026 was truly an outlier rather than the first crack. Specifically, I would want to see the next two quarters hold revenue above roughly $160M while restoring net margin to at least 6%-7%, which would point back toward a $45M-$50M annual earnings run rate rather than a mid-cycle reset. I would also want to see operating income begin to scale with sales, not just gross profit, and net debt stay controlled rather than stepping up meaningfully. If Cadre can show that the earnings dip was temporary and that free cash flow can move sustainably above $65M-$70M annually, the current multiple becomes more defensible. Without that proof, this still looks like a good business carrying a growth-platform valuation it has not earned.
Grok Reading
Cadre’s top line has compounded from $427M in 2021 to $610M in 2025, a genuine ~9–12% CAGR that includes a sharp 2024 step-up to $568M. Gross margin held at a respectable 42.5% and free-cash-flow conversion is excellent: $56.8M FCF on only $6.9M of capex against $44M of net income. That cash generation, a current ratio of 3.5, and net debt of roughly $184M on a $1.32B equity value look like a clean, asset-light industrial. Yet the most recent print—Q1 2026 revenue of $155.4M with net income collapsing to $2.0M and a 1.3% margin—shatters the prior four-quarter pattern of 7%+ net margins. Sequential revenue also slipped from the $167M Q4 peak, and the multi-year FCF CAGR is already negative at –7.5%. At 29.9× trailing earnings, 17.5× EV/EBITDA and 2.5× EV/sales, the market is paying growth-stock multiples for a business whose recent organic growth has decelerated to mid-single digits and whose ROIC sits at a pedestrian 9.5%.
The valuation gap is narrative-driven. The “mission-driven consolidation” story around bolt-ons and a pending Safariland transaction is carrying a 160%+ premium to the DCF numbers the models spit out ($11–15). Insiders appear to agree the premium is rich: roughly 200k shares were sold in a concentrated June 2026 window even as awards were issued. Earnings CAGR of only 6.9% versus revenue CAGR of 12.5% already shows margin leverage is not automatic; the Q1 2026 wipe-out confirms it. A 13.9% ROE and 7.2% net margin simply do not support a 30× P/E once the acquisition-fueled growth fades and debt service on the $307M gross debt stack begins to bite.
The strongest opposing case is that Cadre is still early in a multi-year roll-up of fragmented first-responder gear, that Safariland will unlock genuine distribution and cross-sell synergies, and that government/LE budgets are structurally sticky. Bulls can point to the 22% earnings jump in the trailing year, the fortress liquidity, and the fact that a 12.5% revenue CAGR is rare inside Aerospace & Defense small-caps. If the Q1 margin crater proves purely temporary (integration costs or mix) and 2026 full-year numbers re-accelerate toward double-digit top-line growth with margins back above 7%, the current multiple could be defended as a growth-at-a-reasonable-price entry rather than a bubble. That argument is coherent; it simply requires flawless M&A execution and a cooperative municipal-budget cycle that the recent data do not yet confirm.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive only on two hard catalysts: (1) two consecutive quarters of revenue ≥$165M with net margins restored above 6.5%, proving the Q1 collapse was one-off, and (2) clear post-close Safariland synergy disclosure showing accretion rather than leverage drag. Absent those, the stock remains a narrative premium in search of fundamentals.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Cadre is a mature earner in defense/safety gear with genuinely healthy operating fundamentals: revenue compounded from $427M (2021) to $610M (2025), gross margin expanded from 39.9% to 42.5%, and operating margin sits at a steady ~11-12%. Earnings integrity looks clean — Beneish M at -2.47, Altman Z of 3.3 (safe), accruals -5.8% of assets, and OCF/NI of 3.07x — so the reported $44.1M net income and $56.8M FCF appear real. FCF has been positive every year ($37M/$42M/$67M/$26M/$57M), confirming self-funding. The blemishes are on the capital structure and per-share math. Diluted share count went from 28.6M to 43.4M in four years — an 11% CAGR — which is far in excess of the ~2% SBC/revenue ratio, implying much of the dilution came from equity issuance (likely acquisition-funded) rather than comp alone. Net debt of ~$184M against $123M cash means the balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion. Insider tape shows the chairman (Kanders) selling ~200K shares in a concentrated June window (~$5.6M) with zero open-market buys across the group over 12 months, alongside sizable equity awards to management. Net: a well-run, profitable niche industrial with credible earnings, but per-share value creation is being diluted meaningfully and leverage limits optionality. That anchors it as Solid rather than Strong.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Source of share count growth — confirm via 10-K whether the 11% dilution CAGR is acquisition-driven equity issuance vs SBC
- Debt maturity schedule and covenants on the ~$307M gross debt to gauge balance-sheet flexibility
- Whether recent acquisitions (implied by dilution) are accretive on a per-share basis or diluting returns on capital
- Customer/agency concentration in the safety/defense product lines
- 10b5-1 plan status behind Kanders' June 2026 sales and whether they represent a change vs prior years
- Reconciliation of 2024 FCF drop to $26.1M — working capital, acquisition costs, or capex step-up
The composite fair value of $15.09 and signal-adjusted FV of $11.51 both sit at less than half the $30.64 price, with DCF at $16.70 and an EPV floor at $11.86 forming a tight cluster in the low-to-mid teens. Even granting the Solid quality grade a generous premium (say 20-30% above EPV/DCF midpoint), deserved value lands somewhere around $17-20 - still meaningfully below the current quote. The gap is not a single runaway method; two independent approaches agree. What is priced in at $30+ is successful Safariland integration, sustained margin expansion, and durable pricing power in duty gear and armor - essentially the bull's platform-monopoly narrative. The bear case (commoditized products, political/price-sensitive procurement, deal-funded dilution at 11% annually) is not reflected. With net debt and ongoing share issuance, per-share value is being diluted while the market pays for consolidation optionality that may or may not close. Earnings quality is clean, so no haircut is warranted there - but clean earnings on a $15 EPV don't justify $30. This is a good little business at a full-to-rich price, not a mispricing in my favor.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Safariland deal terms, closing conditions, and pro-forma leverage/EPS accretion math
- Organic vs acquired revenue growth split and organic gross margin trend
- Share count trajectory and any buyback authorization to offset issuance
- Segment-level pricing power in body armor and duty gear vs municipal budget cycles
The dominant force on CDRE right now is narrative, not tape. The market is telling a strong platform-monopoly story about Cadre rolling up fragmented first-responder safety markets, capped by the pending Safariland deal, and that story is doing the heavy lifting - the stock trades at $30.64 against a DCF anchor near $11.51, meaning roughly two-thirds of the price is pure sentiment premium. That is textbook narrative pressure to the upside, and it is what a sentiment lens is supposed to flag. The macro tape is only mildly supportive (regime score +22, VIX 16, S&P just 1.6% off highs) but CDRE's 1.33 beta means any risk-off flinch would hit harder than average; for now the tape is calm enough that it neither amplifies nor threatens the story. Defense and first-responder exposure is also in a favored bucket given the geopolitical backdrop, giving the name a sector tailwind independent of company specifics. The risks to the sentiment read are narrative-specific rather than macro: durability is only 'moderate' and the bear case (commoditization, political procurement, deal debt) is coherent, so any Safariland hiccup, guide-down, or analyst downgrade could puncture the premium quickly. Momentum is neutral and leverage is creeping (D/E 0.71 to 0.97), which sets up a fragile pedestal - but until something cracks the story, the net non-fundamental pressure is upward.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Safariland deal closing terms, financing mix, and any regulatory delay - the single largest narrative pivot point
- Analyst target revisions post-deal: broker upgrades would confirm the tailwind; a downgrade cluster would signal the story fading
- Any competitor product launches or municipal procurement losses that would validate the commoditization bear case
- VIX break above 20 or S&P drawdown - would hit this 1.33-beta premium name harder than the tape suggests
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 5, 2026, CDRE was $30.92. We expect it to be $25.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $20.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 5, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.