Made on
Sep 4, 2026
Price at call
$98.55
6-month call
Bear -8.2%
Target by Mar 2027
$90.50
Great value below
$70.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.2% to $90.50
Predicted High
$98.10
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$90.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 4, 2026 1:02 pm
Bear
CHD trends lower to
$90.50
(-8.2% from $98.55)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisCHD trades well above every valuation anchor with mild negative sentiment and a defensive, low-beta profile, so drift toward fair value is likely gradual rather than violent. Absent an earnings catalyst in the window, expect a slow decay with brief stabilizations, undershooting the deterministic baseline modestly as value gravity compounds.
Invalidated ifA close above $104 on improving breadth, or a defensive rotation lifting staples materially, would falsify the slow drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $98.55 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 4, 2026 | — | $98.55 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 18, 2026 | $93.93–$103.17 typical range · internal point $98.10 | — | ±4.7% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, risk-on regime caps upside near current |
| What actually happened: closed $95.05 on Sep 17, 2026 = -3.6% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.1 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.7%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 4, 2026 | $91.86–$105.24 typical range · internal point $97.20 | — | ±6.8% | 6/10 | Mild sentiment drag, no catalyst, sideways bias |
| What actually happened: closed $94.31 on Oct 2, 2026 = -4.3% vs the call (predicted -1.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.9 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.8%: inside the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $95.80 | — | -2.8% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins as staples underperform risk-on tape |
| 3 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $94.50 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning trims expensive defensives |
| 4 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $93.20 | — | -5.4% | 4/10 | January rebalancing pressures stretched-multiple names |
| 5 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $92.00 | — | -6.6% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward anchored-PE fair value |
| 6 months | Mar 4, 2027 | $90.50 | — | -8.2% | 4/10 | Slow grind lower, undershoots baseline as value bites |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $93.47 (-5.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $98.55 |
| Composite fair value | $59.99 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $59.62 |
| DCF fair value | $70.63 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $67.17 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $70.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +51 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.0% 3m 23.5% 6m 23.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.30 3m -0.31 5m 0.04 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -1.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | CHD-20260903-233001-2395 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHD-20260904-001556-7a01 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHD-20260904-001556-7a01 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHD-20260904-001556-7a01 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHD-20260904-001556-7a01 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | CHD-20260903-233001-2395 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | CHD-20260903-233001-2395 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $98.55 | $90.50 | -8.2% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.