CME
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CME Group Inc. Class A Common Stock
Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Made on
Sep 1, 2026
Price at call
$284.79
6-month call
Bear -5.2%
Target by Mar 2027
$270.00
Great value below
$225.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.2% to $270.00
Predicted High
$283.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$270.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 1, 2026 1:00 pm
Bear
CME trends lower to
$270.00
(-5.2% from $284.79)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisCME trades well above every fair-value anchor with weak sentiment and a risk-on tape rewarding higher-beta names, so I expect a modest drift lower toward the anchored-PE zone near $270, not a collapse toward DCF given the fortress quality and low beta.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $295 or an equity risk-off shock that bids low-beta exchanges would invalidate the drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $284.79 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 1, 2026 | — | $284.79 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 15, 2026 | $268.43–$301.15 typical range · internal point $283.50 | — | ±5.7% | 6/10 | Low-vol drift, no catalyst, risk-on tape caps upside |
| What actually happened: closed $280.46 on Sep 14, 2026 = -1.5% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 1, 2026 | $261.09–$308.49 typical range · internal point $281.00 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | Rotation away from defensives continues gradually |
| What actually happened: closed $261.98 on Sep 30, 2026 = -8.0% vs the call (predicted -1.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.3%: inside the band · S&P +0.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $278.00 | — | -2.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, valuation gravity begins |
| 3 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $275.50 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | Earnings likely in-line, sentiment stays tepid |
| 4 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $273.00 | — | -4.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims richly-valued utility name |
| 5 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $271.00 | — | -4.8% | 4/10 | Converges toward anchored-PE fair value zone |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $270.00 | — | -5.2% | 4/10 | Settles near anchored-PE, quality floor prevents deeper slide |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $274.76 (-3.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $284.79 |
| Composite fair value | $192.76 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $226.01 |
| DCF fair value | $197.83 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $270.05 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $225.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +90 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.8% 3m 28.8% 6m 27.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.62 3m -0.54 5m -0.54 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -12.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | 21d behind | CME-20260810-000802-d053 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CME-20260831-231535-05ce |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CME-20260831-231535-05ce |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CME-20260831-231535-05ce |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CME-20260831-231535-05ce |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | CME-20260831-230001-1409 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | CME-20260831-230001-1409 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.