Made on
Jul 27, 2026
Price at call
$158.29
6-month call
Neutral +1.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$160.00
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+1.1% to $160.00
Predicted High
$160.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$128.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-19.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 27, 2026 12:58 am
Neutral
COIN trends range-bound to
$160.00
(+1.1% from $158.29)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCOIN is a high-beta crypto proxy caught in a risk-off tape with cracking sentiment and insider exits; near-term drift is lower toward the $115 attractive zone, but crypto-linked names mean-revert violently and a BTC stabilization over the 6-month window likely brings a partial recovery well before touching the $57 bear case.
Invalidated ifBTC breaking to new cycle lows or COIN closing below $110 on heavy volume invalidates the recovery leg; conversely a sustained move above $185 breaks the initial dip thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $158.29 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 27, 2026 | — | $158.29 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 10, 2026 | $138.08–$178.50 typical range · internal point $150.00 | — | ±12.8% | 7/10 | risk-off tape and negative sentiment pressure continue near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $153.60 on Aug 7, 2026 = -3.0% vs the call (predicted -5.2%) · direction MISS (called down, was flat) · off by 2.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 27, 2026 | $129.01–$187.57 typical range · internal point $142.00 | — | ±18.5% | 6/10 | insider exits and BTC weakness drag toward value zone |
| 2 months | Sep 27, 2026 | $128.00 | — | -19.1% | 5/10 | approaching attractive-below level as capitulation builds |
| 3 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $132.00 | — | -16.6% | 4/10 | oversold bounce as high beta cuts both ways |
| 4 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $145.00 | — | -8.4% | 4/10 | crypto stabilization and possible earnings beat lift sentiment |
| 5 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $155.00 | — | -2.1% | 3/10 | regime normalization drives beta-driven recovery |
| 6 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $160.00 | — | +1.1% | 3/10 | mean reversion toward starting level as narrative resets |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 5 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $158.29 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -53 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -2 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 64.5% 3m 64.1% 6m 75.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.41 3m 2.26 5m 2.61 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -29.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | COIN-20260727-000446-ce86 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-COIN-20260727-004658-3a1a |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-COIN-20260727-004658-3a1a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-COIN-20260727-004658-3a1a |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-COIN-20260727-004658-3a1a |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | COIN-20260727-000446-ce86 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | COIN-20260727-000446-ce86 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $158.29 | $160.00 | +1.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.