Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$316.32
6-month call
Bull +5.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$333.00
Great value below
$275.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+5.3% to $333.00
Predicted High
$333.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$312.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 12:21 pm
Bull
COR trends higher to
$333.00
(+5.3% from $316.32)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCOR is a low-beta distributor trading below signal-adjusted fair value with a bruised sentiment tape but improving quality signals. Path is a slow grind higher toward the deterministic baseline as the May miss fades and value gravity dominates over months, with modest near-term chop given weak sentiment.
Invalidated ifA break below $290 on volume or a negative pre-announcement would falsify the recovery thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $316.32 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $316.32 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $298.93–$333.71 typical range · internal point $314.50 | — | ±5.5% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag lingers, low beta caps moves |
| What actually happened: closed $330.97 on Sep 1, 2026 = +4.6% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.2 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±5.5%: inside the band · S&P -1.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $291.12–$341.52 typical range · internal point $312.00 | — | ±8.0% | 5/10 | Quiet tape, mild drift below current |
| What actually happened: closed $308.78 on Sep 18, 2026 = -2.4% vs the call (predicted -1.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.0 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±8.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $318.00 | — | +0.5% | 5/10 | Stabilization as May miss ages out |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $324.00 | — | +2.4% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward fair value band |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $328.00 | — | +3.7% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors defensive distributors |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $330.00 | — | +4.3% | 4/10 | Approach deterministic baseline, DCF support |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $333.00 | — | +5.3% | 4/10 | Converges near baseline, signal-adjusted anchor above |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $332.28 (+5.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $316.32 |
| Composite fair value | $292.49 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $366.70 |
| DCF fair value | $377.66 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $277.38 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $275.00 |
| Value net score | +5 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +39 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.6% 3m 27.6% 6m 37.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.90 3m -0.63 5m -0.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -12.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 12, 2026 | 7d behind | COR-20260812-001122-c217 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-COR-20260819-121701-9f48 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-COR-20260819-121701-9f48 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-COR-20260819-121701-9f48 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-COR-20260819-121701-9f48 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | COR-20260812-001122-c217 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | COR-20260819-001959-56aa |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $316.32 | $333.00 | +5.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.