Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$22.76
6-month call
Bull +16.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$26.50
Great value below
$19.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.4% to $26.50
Predicted High
$26.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$22.30
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:42 am
Bull
CPB trends higher to
$26.50
(+16.4% from $22.76)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCPB is a broken-narrative food name trading at deep discount to intrinsic value but with no near-term catalyst; sentiment stays heavy near-term while slow value gravity and a modest sector rotation lift shares gradually toward the mid-20s. No earnings print inside the window removes the main catalyst, so drift dominates.
Invalidated ifA break below $19 on volume, or a guide-down/dividend cut, would invalidate the recovery leg; conversely a rip above $28 signals faster mean reversion than modeled.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $22.76 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $22.76 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $21.24–$24.28 typical range · internal point $22.55 | — | ±6.7% | 7/10 | sentiment overhang, low beta drift, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $23.26 on Aug 19, 2026 = +2.2% vs the call (predicted -0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.1 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $20.55–$24.97 typical range · internal point $22.30 | — | ±9.7% | 6/10 | fallen-angel tape continues, tax-loss seasoning early |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $22.90 | — | +0.6% | 5/10 | stabilization as valuation screens flag deep discount |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $24.10 | — | +5.9% | 5/10 | value buyers step in, defensive bid returns |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $25.20 | — | +10.7% | 4/10 | year-end rotation into laggard staples |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $25.80 | — | +13.4% | 4/10 | January mean reversion, dividend yield support |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $26.50 | — | +16.4% | 4/10 | slow grind toward deterministic value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $26.92 (+18.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $22.76 |
| Composite fair value | $52.86 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $47.64 |
| DCF fair value | $47.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $79.33 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $19.00 |
| Value net score | -6 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -23 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 33.9% 3m 33.6% 6m 34.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.14 3m -0.30 5m -0.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -17.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | CPB-20260803-120904-8a09 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPB-20260803-131414-284b |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPB-20260803-131414-284b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPB-20260803-131414-284b |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPB-20260803-131414-284b |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | CPB-20260803-120904-8a09 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | CPB-20260803-120904-8a09 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $22.76 | $26.50 | +16.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.