Made on
Aug 28, 2026
Price at call
$16.47
6-month call
Bear -9.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$14.90
Great value below
$11.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.5% to $14.90
Predicted High
$16.35
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$14.90
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 28, 2026 1:00 pm
Bear
CPNG trends lower to
$14.90
(-9.5% from $16.47)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisCPNG trades well above composite fair value (~$7) with negative sentiment and quality drag, but no imminent catalyst forces revaluation in a risk-on tape. Expect gradual mean-reversion toward the deterministic $14.96 endpoint as the fallen-angel narrative slowly weighs, with mild early stickiness from momentum.
Invalidated ifA surprise profitability beat or strategic catalyst pushing CPNG above $18.50, or regime flip to risk-off driving below $13.50 quickly.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $16.47 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 28, 2026 | — | $16.47 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 11, 2026 | $16.35 | — | -0.7% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape holds price near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $14.67 on Sep 10, 2026 = -10.9% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P -1.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 28, 2026 | $16.10 | — | -2.2% | 6/10 | Mild drift as sentiment overhang persists |
| What actually happened: closed $13.88 on Sep 25, 2026 = -15.7% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 28, 2026 | $15.80 | — | -4.0% | 5/10 | Unprofitable-stock framing weighs modestly |
| 3 months | Nov 28, 2026 | $15.50 | — | -5.9% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting downward pull |
| 4 months | Dec 28, 2026 | $15.20 | — | -7.7% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing away from low-quality names |
| 5 months | Jan 28, 2027 | $15.00 | — | -8.9% | 4/10 | January earnings anticipation caps upside |
| 6 months | Feb 28, 2027 | $14.90 | — | -9.5% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $14.96 (-9.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 3 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Too little price history for CPNG to size the realism noise — using a default volatility.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $16.47 |
| Composite fair value | $7.37 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $5.86 |
| DCF fair value | $7.85 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $11.00 |
| Value net score | -51 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +25 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m — 3m — 6m — |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | — |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m — 3m — 5m — |
| Trailing 6-month return | — |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | CPNG-20260827-030001-141c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPNG-20260827-231511-5559 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPNG-20260827-231511-5559 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPNG-20260827-231511-5559 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPNG-20260827-231511-5559 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | CPNG-20260827-230001-21ca |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | CPNG-20260827-230001-21ca |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $16.47 | $14.90 | -9.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.