Made on
Jul 14, 2026
Price at call
$169.23
6-month call
Bull +9.7%
Target by Jan 2027
$185.66
Great value below
$140.00
Model
v0.3.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast
One directional 6-month call and the six monthly points we'll be scored against. Predicted Jul 14, 2026 2:58 pm
Bull
CRM trends higher to
$185.66
(+9.7% from $169.23)
by Jan 2027.
| Monthmonths after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $169.23 at call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 14, 2026 | — | $169.23 at call | — |
| M1 | Aug 14, 2026 | $171.97 | — | +1.6% |
| What actually happened: closed $201.37 on Aug 13, 2026 = +19.0% vs the call (predicted +1.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 17.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +3.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M2 | Sep 14, 2026 | $174.71 | — | +3.2% |
| M3 | Oct 14, 2026 | $177.45 | — | +4.9% |
| M4 | Nov 14, 2026 | $180.18 | — | +6.5% |
| M5 | Dec 14, 2026 | $182.92 | — | +8.1% |
| M6 | Jan 14, 2027 | $185.66 | — | +9.7% |
Deserved value (DCF/composite) is $212.19; over 6 months we project closing only part-way to it (reach 38.3%). Value-only — see Not Yet Modeled below.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.3.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $169.23 |
| Composite fair value | $153.49 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $144.35 |
| DCF fair value | $202.53 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $150.18 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $140.00 |
| Value net score | -66 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +96 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | $178.01 |
| Quality tilt | +19.2% |
| Deserved value (used) | $212.19 |
| Coherence (value × quality) | 1.00 |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.2% 3m 48.4% 6m 46.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.75 3m -0.05 5m 0.02 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -34.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| Deserved wt · DCF | 0.5 |
| Quality tilt cap (±) | 0.2 |
| Horizon reach (6mo) | 0.45 |
| Coherence floor (conflict) | 0.5 |
| Conviction gain / pt | 0.06 |
| Realism mean-reversion φ | 0.85 |
| Conviction floor | 0.4 |
| Deserved wt · composite | 0.5 |
| Realism vol window | 3m |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| Horizon (months) | 6 |
| Realism σ fallback | 0.015 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.3.0
#6bd904191719 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
May 17, 2026 | 58d behind | CRM-20260517-122200-6637 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRM-20260714-144615-e5d9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRM-20260714-144615-e5d9 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRM-20260714-144615-e5d9 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | CRM-20260714-142502-aaa2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | CRM-20260714-142502-aaa2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $169.23 | $185.66 | +9.7% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.3.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Signal-adjusted fair value ($144.35) — the red-flag-adjusted anchor isn't the primary input yet (we use the raw DCF/composite blend, which double-counts DCF).
- Recent momentum / drift — the line takes off straight; the trailing 6-month move (-34.7%) doesn't bend the slope.
- Market beta — computed (1–5mo) for context but does not condition the path.
- Earnings dates, catalysts, and known events — not modeled.
- Macro regime & sector rotation — not modeled.
- Horizon is a fixed 6-month assumption, not a modeled time-to-target.
- Outcome scoring — predictions aren't yet graded against realized price once the evaluation date passes.