Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$206.59
6-month call
Neutral +1.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$210.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+1.7% to $210.00
Predicted High
$212.50
at 5 months
Predicted Low
$203.50
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:00 pm
Neutral
CRM trends range-bound to
$210.00
(+1.7% from $206.59)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCRM has re-rated 17% in six months and now trades above composite fair value but below DCF, with a neutral tape and mild sentiment headwind. Expect early consolidation as momentum cools, then drift toward the deterministic anchor around $210 as beat history and DCF gravity offset value-lens skepticism.
Invalidated ifA break below $185 on volume, or above $230 on an AI-narrative catalyst, would falsify this drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $206.59 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $206.59 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $186.05–$227.13 typical range · internal point $205.20 | — | ±9.9% | 7/10 | Mild consolidation after strong 6mo run, low beta |
| What actually happened: closed $259.23 on Sep 4, 2026 = +25.5% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 26.2 pp · accuracy 3/10 · typical range ±9.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $176.83–$236.35 typical range · internal point $203.50 | — | ±14.4% | 6/10 | Sentiment headwind, AI narrative bypassing CRM near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $238.22 on Sep 24, 2026 = +15.3% vs the call (predicted -1.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 16.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±14.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $207.00 | — | +0.2% | 5/10 | Earnings likely lands here, beat streak supports |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $211.00 | — | +2.1% | 5/10 | Post-print drift toward DCF anchor if beat |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $209.00 | — | +1.2% | 4/10 | Year-end tape, low-vol name, modest positioning |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $212.50 | — | +2.9% | 4/10 | January drift, DCF gravity dominates value-lens drag |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $210.00 | — | +1.7% | 4/10 | Settles near deterministic baseline, fair-value tension caps |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $208.38 (+0.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $206.59 |
| Composite fair value | $164.32 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $176.38 |
| DCF fair value | $223.33 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $152.74 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -63 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +58 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 44.6% 3m 49.9% 6m 46.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.10 3m 0.13 5m -0.04 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 17.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 25d behind | CRM-20260730-170253-7919 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRM-20260824-150830-b3b4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRM-20260824-150830-b3b4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRM-20260824-150830-b3b4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRM-20260824-150830-b3b4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | CRM-20260730-170253-7919 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | CRM-20260730-170253-7919 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $206.59 | $210.00 | +1.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 14, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $169.23 | $185.66 | +9.7% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.