Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$116.42
6-month call
Bull +6.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$124.00
Great value below
$92.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+6.5% to $124.00
Predicted High
$124.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$105.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:08 am
Bull
CVLT trends higher to
$124.00
(+6.5% from $116.42)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisPost-earnings guidance shock just cut CVLT 20% and the compounder narrative is bruised, so the near-term drifts lower toward the value zone before quality reasserts and the stock grinds back toward the DCF anchor over months.
Invalidated ifA break below $92 on volume without stabilization, or a second guide-down, invalidates the recovery leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $116.42 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $116.42 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $103.00–$129.84 typical range · internal point $112.50 | — | ±11.5% | 6/10 | post-shock drift as downgrades and estimate cuts continue |
| What actually happened: closed $151.10 on Aug 13, 2026 = +29.8% vs the call (predicted -3.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 33.2 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±11.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $96.97–$135.87 typical range · internal point $108.00 | — | ±16.7% | 6/10 | sentiment overhang meets composite fair value gravity |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $105.00 | — | -9.8% | 5/10 | basing near fair value, low-beta buyers step in |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $110.00 | — | -5.5% | 5/10 | quality lens reasserts, next print approaches |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $116.00 | — | -0.4% | 4/10 | beat streak plus guide reset rebuilds confidence |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $120.00 | — | +3.1% | 4/10 | year-end mean reversion toward DCF anchor |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $124.00 | — | +6.5% | 3/10 | converges near deterministic baseline as narrative heals |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $124.22 (+6.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $116.42 |
| Composite fair value | $103.55 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $103.27 |
| DCF fair value | $138.65 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $65.34 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $92.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +68 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 83.7% 3m 57.9% 6m 55.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.81 3m 0.13 5m 0.42 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 29.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CVLT-20260730-193417-99f0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVLT-20260730-210420-917a |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVLT-20260730-210420-917a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVLT-20260730-210420-917a |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVLT-20260730-210420-917a |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CVLT-20260730-205438-66fe |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CVLT-20260730-205438-66fe |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $116.42 | $124.00 | +6.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.