Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$192.31
6-month call
Bear -8.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$176.50
Great value below
$140.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.2% to $176.50
Predicted High
$196.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$176.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 12:48 am
Bear
CVX trends lower to
$176.50
(-8.2% from $192.31)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCVX trades well above every valuation anchor with a negative value lens, but strong energy-security sentiment and a war-windfall earnings setup provide near-term support. Expect momentum to carry through the print, then gradual value gravity pulling the stock toward the mid-170s as the narrative fades over 6 months.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $205 on oil spike or below $170 on demand shock invalidates the drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $192.31 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $192.31 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $182.46–$202.16 typical range · internal point $194.80 | — | ±5.1% | 6/10 | Energy-security narrative and earnings setup lift into print |
| What actually happened: closed $197.70 on Aug 13, 2026 = +2.8% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.1%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $178.03–$206.59 typical range · internal point $196.50 | — | ±7.4% | 5/10 | Post-beat momentum, defensive beta cushions neutral tape |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $191.00 | — | -0.7% | 5/10 | Narrative cools, value lens begins asserting downward pull |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $186.50 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity accelerates as sentiment premium erodes |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $182.00 | — | -5.4% | 4/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline, no catalyst offset |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $179.00 | — | -6.9% | 4/10 | Year-end tax selling on winners compounds fade |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $176.50 | — | -8.2% | 3/10 | Convergence toward fair value continues, endpoint below baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $183.73 (-4.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $192.31 |
| Composite fair value | $131.01 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $130.34 |
| DCF fair value | $137.51 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $133.52 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $140.00 |
| Value net score | -74 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +43 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.7% 3m 25.7% 6m 25.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.01 3m -0.91 5m -0.90 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 13.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | CVX-20260731-001024-3c3f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVX-20260731-003545-784c |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVX-20260731-003545-784c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVX-20260731-003545-784c |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVX-20260731-003545-784c |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | CVX-20260731-001024-3c3f |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | CVX-20260731-001024-3c3f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $192.31 | $176.50 | -8.2% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 8, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $173.94 | $162.27 | -6.7% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.