For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Chevron Corporation (CVX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -21 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 43 · Value -74 · Sentiment 36 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $180.43 vs $192.31 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Chevron Corporation
CVX NYSEChevron Corporation is a leading integrated energy company engaged in global operations across upstream, downstream, and other segments. Its Upstream segment focuses on the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas, including processing, liquefaction, regasification of liquefied natural gas, pipeline transportation, carbon capture and storage, and gas-to-liquids facilities. The Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products, markets crude oil, refined products, lubricants, and renewable fuels, and manufactures commodity petrochemicals, plastics, and fuel additives, utilizing pipelines, marine vessels, motor equipment, and rail for transportation. The All Other segment handles cash management, debt financing, insurance, real estate, and technology support. With activities spanning North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia, Chevron Corporation plays a vital role in supplying energy resources, refined products, and chemicals to industrial, commercial, and consumer markets worldwide. Founded in 1879 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, it remains a cornerstone of the global energy sector.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 6.63
Total Equity: $192.18B
Shares: 1,856,000,000
Total Debt: $10.92B
Cash: $7.29B
EBITDA: $39.88B
Total Debt: $10.92B
Cash: $7.29B
Revenue: $189.03B
Revenue: $189.03B
Revenue: $189.03B
Total Equity: $192.18B
Tax Rate: 36.8%
Equity: $192.18B
Total Debt: $10.92B
Cash: $7.29B
Current Liabilities: $33.39B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $10.92B
Total Equity: $192.18B
Shares: 1,856,000,000
Shares: 1,856,000,000
CapEx: -$17.35B
Shares: 1,856,000,000
Stock Price: $191.20
Net Income: $12.30B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:29am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $162.5B | $246.3B | $200.9B | $202.8B | $189.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $89.4B | $145.4B | $119.2B | $119.2B | $108.2B |
| Gross Profit | $73.1B | $100.8B | $81.8B | $83.6B | $80.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $51.5B | $51.2B | $52.2B | $56.1B | $61.1B |
| Operating Income | $21.6B | $49.7B | $29.6B | $27.5B | $19.7B |
| Net Income | $15.6B | $35.5B | $21.4B | $17.7B | $12.3B |
| EBITDA | $39.6B | $66.0B | $46.9B | $44.8B | $39.9B |
| EPS | $8.15 | $18.36 | $11.41 | $9.76 | $6.65 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $8.14 | $18.28 | $11.36 | $9.72 | $6.63 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:02am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $6.8B | $19.1B | $9.3B | $8.3B | $7.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $33.7B | $50.3B | $41.1B | $40.9B | $38.6B |
| Total Assets | $239.5B | $257.7B | $261.6B | $256.9B | $324.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $26.8B | $34.2B | $32.3B | $38.6B | $33.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $25.7B | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $99.6B | $97.5B | $99.7B | $103.8B | $131.8B |
| Total Equity | $139.9B | $160.2B | $161.9B | $153.2B | $192.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $165.5B | $190.0B | $200.0B | $205.9B | $205.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:29am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $29.2B | $49.6B | $35.6B | $31.5B | $33.9B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$8.1B | -$12.0B | -$15.8B | -$16.4B | -$17.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | $21.1B | $37.6B | $19.8B | $15.0B | $16.6B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | -$2.9B | $55.0M | $0 | $1.1B |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$8.5B | -$8.5B | -$4.1B | $8.1B | $13.7B |
| Dividends Paid | -$10.2B | -$11.0B | -$11.3B | -$11.8B | -$12.8B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$1.4B | -$11.3B | -$14.9B | -$15.2B | -$12.1B |
| Net Change in Cash | $58.0M | $12.3B | -$9.8B | -$1.0B | -$977.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:29am (23d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +51.6% | -18.4% | +0.9% | -6.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +38.0% | -18.9% | +2.2% | -3.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +129.6% | -40.4% | -7.0% | -28.2% |
| Net Income Growth | +127.0% | -39.7% | -17.4% | -30.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +66.8% | -28.9% | -4.5% | -11.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:02am (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | $1.78 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-17 | $1.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-18 | $1.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-19 | $1.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-19 | $1.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-14 | $1.71 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-18 | $1.63 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-19 | $1.63 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-16 | $1.63 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-15 | $1.63 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-16 | $1.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-17 | $1.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-18 | $1.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-15 | $1.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-17 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-18 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-18 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-15 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-17 | $1.34 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-18 | $1.34 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:47Recovery pays +45%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 50%. Ratio 0.9:1.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($192.31) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +19% | 11.0% | $278.78 | +45% |
| Base — stabilizes | +13% | 9.6% | $201.63 | +5% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +6% | 8.1% | $142.35 | -26% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -10% | 9.8% | $95.50 | -50% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue has drifted from $51-52B in mid-2024 down to $44-49B through 2025 and into Q1 2026, while net income has been cut roughly in half — Q2 2024 posted $4.43B, Q1 2026 posted $2.21B. Margins compressed from ~8.9% to ~4.5%. Annual NI trajectory is uglier: $35.5B (2022) → $21.4B → $17.7B → $12.3B. This is a textbook late-cycle commodity earnings unwind, not a growth story deteriorating. The balance sheet remains fortress-grade — $10.9B debt against $192B equity, D/E of 0.057 — so solvency is not the question. The question is whether $12.3B TTM-ish earnings is trough or new normal, because at $382B market cap you're paying 29x on that number and 1.89x sales.
The payout ratio of 103.7% is the single most important number on this page and none of the prior models weighted it enough. Chevron paid out more than it earned in 2025. FCF of $16.6B against roughly $12B of dividends still covers cash returns, but the buffer is thin, capex ran $17.3B (exceeding FCF-before-dividends math), and another leg down in crude would force either debt-funded dividends or a cut. The 3.63% yield is the entire retail thesis; if it wobbles, the stock re-rates violently. Insider activity is essentially non-signal — routine May grants and trivial discretionary buys of 20-209 shares. Don't read anything into it.
On the synthesis verdict of $130 fair value versus $191 spot: I partially agree with the direction but think the magnitude is overstated. A DCF anchored to 2025's depressed $12.3B earnings is anchoring on trough. Mid-cycle Chevron earns closer to $20-25B (average of 2021-2024 ex-2022 spike is ~$18B; including 2022 it's $22.5B). Normalize to $20B and you're at 19x mid-cycle, not 29x — expensive for a no-growth integrated major, but not the 32% haircut the composite implies. Fair value on mid-cycle multiples (13-15x normalized earnings + balance sheet) lands closer to $150-165, not $130. The narrative layer's "47% premium is almost entirely story" overstates the gap because it too anchors on trough DCF. That said, the direction is right: this stock is not cheap here.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: energy capex discipline across the majors plus OPEC+ management plus underinvestment in new supply means the marginal barrel stays supported even with EV penetration, and Chevron's Permian + Guyana + TCO cost curve keeps it earning through $55 Brent. Berkshire's ~6-7% stake is not a passive holding. If Brent averages $75+ in 2026-2027, 2025 will look like the trough and $191 will look reasonable. The bear case — stranded assets within a decade — is genuinely a 10-year problem being priced as a 3-year problem, and integrated majors have shown they can flex capex faster than models assume. I'd also flag that the "accelerating quarterly trend" secondary signal is wrong or at least misleading: Q1 2026 rev of $48.6B is below Q3 2025's $49.7B and well below year-ago comps. That signal contradicts the -6.8% recent YoY the momentum block reports; trust the YoY. Also worth flagging: the 2026-Q1 datapoint is suspiciously fresh for a file dated around mid-2026 — treat it as preliminary.
Net: I dissent partially from the synthesis. Overvalued, yes, but $130 is too punitive; $155-165 is the honest mid-cycle anchor, implying ~15-20% downside not 32%. This is not a short — the dividend, buyback, and Berkshire floor make asymmetric downside unlikely absent a crude collapse to $50s. It's a "don't chase, wait for $160s" name. The payout ratio above 100% is the swing factor: one more weak quarter and the dividend narrative cracks, at which point the synthesis's $130 becomes plausible. Until then, holders get paid 3.6% to wait and new money should not enter at 29x trough earnings when the sector is cyclically extended and the market is clearly extrapolating a supercycle that revenue trends (-6.8% YoY, -3% CAGR) do not support.
GPT Reading
Chevron at $191 is being valued like a high-quality compounder when the reported numbers look like a cyclical earner in a downswing. The core issue is simple: the market cap is $382 billion against 2025 net income of $12.3 billion and free cash flow of $16.6 billion, so investors are paying about 29x earnings and roughly 23x FCF for an integrated oil major whose revenue fell from $246.3 billion in 2022 to $189.0 billion in 2025 and whose net income fell from $35.5 billion to $12.3 billion over the same span. Even if 2025 is not trough, the quarterly pattern is not encouraging: net income has run $4.43 billion, $4.49 billion, $3.24 billion, $3.50 billion, $2.49 billion, $3.54 billion, $2.77 billion, and now $2.21 billion in the latest quarter. That is a clear margin compression story, from high-single-digit net margins in 2024 to 4.5% most recently. A business this exposed to commodity realizations can absolutely recover, but at this price you are already paying for that recovery.
What stands out positively is the balance sheet and operating resilience. Debt is only $10.9 billion against $192.2 billion of equity, debt-to-equity is just 0.06, and operating cash flow of $33.9 billion still comfortably covers capex of $17.4 billion. This is not a stressed oil company; it is a fortress. Gross margin also held up better than earnings, at 42.8% for 2025, which tells you the real damage is lower realizations, weaker downstream conditions, and the operating leverage inherent in the model rather than a broken franchise. That matters because Chevron can keep investing and keep paying shareholders through a soft patch. But “safe” is not the same as “cheap.” A 3.6% dividend yield is fine, yet the stated payout ratio above 100% is a warning that the dividend is currently leaning on balance-sheet strength and cash generation rather than robust accounting earnings. For a supermajor, I want either a much fatter yield or a much lower multiple if profits are this depressed.
The contradiction I see in the bullish framing is that the stock is being treated as both defensive and cyclical upside. Usually you can have one or the other. If the defense case is the point, then the valuation is too rich relative to the cash returns on offer. If the cyclical upside case is the point, then you need confidence that 2025–2026 earnings are abnormally low and set to snap back. But the latest data do not show a turn yet: Q1 2026 revenue was $48.6 billion versus $47.6 billion a year earlier, yet net income still dropped from $3.50 billion to $2.21 billion. So even when sales stabilized, profitability worsened. That suggests the “just wait for oil” thesis is too simplistic; downstream and mix matter, and the business is not converting revenue to earnings the way it did in 2022-2024. At 1.9x sales, 1.86x book, and 9x EV/EBITDA, the stock is not absurdly valued on asset-heavy metrics, but those are not bargain multiples for a company producing 6.4% ROE and 6.4% ROIC.
The best argument against my bearish read is that normalized earnings power is much higher than the last twelve months suggest. Chevron earned $21.4 billion in 2023 and $17.7 billion in 2024 after making $35.5 billion in 2022; if one assumes a return even to the 2024 level, the current market cap implies closer to 22x earnings, and if mid-cycle free cash flow rebounds into the $25-30 billion range, the stock screens much less stretched. The near-debt-free balance sheet also deserves a premium versus weaker peers because it protects the dividend, enables buybacks, and lets Chevron buy weakness rather than survive it. A smart bull would also say the company does not need heroic growth: flat production, disciplined capex, and normalized commodity pricing can support attractive shareholder returns over time. I weigh those points less heavily because the recent quarter argues earnings normalization is not imminent, and in cyclicals timing matters: paying a premium before the turn is visible is how you lock in mediocre returns even when the franchise itself is solid.
What would change my mind is evidence that 2025 really was the earnings trough rather than a step-down in the base. Specifically, I would want to see quarterly net income recover back above $3.5-4.0 billion with net margin sustainably returning to at least 7-8%, not just a revenue bounce. I would also want free cash flow to move back above $20 billion annualized without meaningfully higher leverage, showing the dividend and buybacks are funded from operating strength rather than balance-sheet capacity. If that happens, I can justify a premium integrated name in the $190s. Without it, fair value looks materially lower because the current quote prices a recovery that has not yet shown up in the reported numbers.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a clear story of a cyclical trough that has already lasted longer than a simple inventory correction. Chevron’s 2025 revenue of $189.03B is down roughly 7% from 2024 and nearly 23% from the 2022 peak of $246.25B; net income has collapsed from $35.47B to $12.30B over the same span, a –24% earnings CAGR that accelerated to –30% year-on-year in the most recent prints. Quarterly net margins have compressed into the mid-single digits—4.5% in Q1 2026, 5.9% in Q4 2025—versus the 8–9% range that prevailed through mid-2024. Free cash flow remains positive at $16.59B, but that too is eroding (–8.4% CAGR) after $17.35B of capex, and the 103.7% payout ratio means the $13.9B dividend is no longer covered by reported earnings even if it still clears FCF. At $191 the stock trades at 29x those trough earnings, 1.89x sales and 9.0x EV/EBITDA—multiples that would be defensible only if mid-cycle earnings power were already visible in the run-rate. It is not.
What stands out most is the disconnect between the fortress balance sheet and the deteriorating income statement. Net debt is a rounding error ($3.6B), debt-to-equity is 0.057, and ROE/ROIC have both slumped to ~6.4%. That capital structure can finance the dividend and buybacks through a multi-year trough, which is why the 3.6% yield still attracts income capital. But a mature integrated major earning mid-single-digit returns on equity while shrinking the top line does not deserve a growth-stock multiple. The valuation synthesis fair value near $131 (approximately 32% below the current price) is directionally correct: every mechanical approach—earnings power, cash-flow yield, asset value—converges on a mid-cycle oil price of $60–70 Brent producing something closer to $15–18B of net income, which at a 12–14x multiple lands well below $160. The market is simply refusing to mark the stock to that reality.
The strongest counter-argument is that 29x is a mirage created by trough earnings and that EV/EBITDA of 9x plus a 4.3% FCF yield is only modestly rich for a company that can snap earnings back to $20B+ on any sustained move above $80 WTI. Berkshire’s continued presence, the negligible leverage, and the geopolitical bid for energy security all support the idea that the downside is buffered and that the current price already embeds a permanent-scarcity premium rather than a supercycle fantasy. A smart opponent would also note that quarterly revenue has stopped falling sequentially and that FCF still covers the dividend with room to spare, so the “dividend cut” bear case remains theoretical. I weigh those points seriously, yet they require oil to re-rate higher from here; they do not justify paying 29x for the earnings that exist today while both revenue and FCF continue to compound negatively.
I would reverse to a neutral or constructive stance if Brent sustains above $85 for two consecutive quarters and Chevron prints net income above $4.5B with operating margins reclaiming 12%, or if the shares simply compress into the $145–155 zone where the mid-cycle multiple becomes reasonable on current run-rate cash flows. Until one of those occurs, the stock is priced for an energy narrative the income statement has stopped confirming.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Chevron looks like a textbook mature integrated major: $189B revenue on a downtrend from the 2022 peak of $246B, gross margin holding in a tight 40-43% band, and FCF of $16.6B in the latest year that comfortably self-funds capex, dividends and buybacks. Earnings quality is genuinely clean - OCF/NI of 1.9x, accruals at -5.7% of assets, Beneish M of -3.02 and Altman Z of 3.43 all point to conservative accounting with no manufactured earnings. Diluted share count has drifted from 1.94B (2022) to 1.86B (2025), roughly -0.8% CAGR, so per-share value is being concentrated rather than diluted.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Reserve replacement ratio and reserve life to gauge upstream durability
- Post-Hess acquisition integration status and any goodwill/impairment risk
- Breakeven oil price for dividend plus maintenance capex
- Composition of $10.9B short-term debt and refinancing schedule
- Whether 2025 margin compression is purely price-driven or includes cost creep
- Downstream and chemicals segment contribution to smooth earnings quality read
Every valuation lane points the same direction: DCF $137.51, EPV floor $115.51, anchored PE $133.52, composite $131.01, signal-adjusted $130.34. Against a $192.31 price that is roughly a 32% overshoot, or put differently, the market is paying a ~47% premium to DCF for a business whose operating margin has compressed from 20.2% to 10.4%. The quality lens is right that this is a fortress-grade supermajor with clean earnings, and that legitimately lifts deserved value above a strict EPV floor - but even the most generous lane (DCF) sits ~28% below spot. There is no lane in which the current price looks like a bargain. What is priced in: durable mid-cycle crude, permanent geopolitical premium, and continued buyback-driven per-share compounding. What the numbers actually show: margin trajectory is deteriorating and net income has roughly halved while FCF holds up on working-capital timing. Margin of safety is negative; you are paying for the quality badge and the dividend, not for a gap between price and value. This is a hold-if-you-own-it, not a buy-here name.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward capex guide and Permian/TCO free cash flow ramp - key DCF sensitivity
- Working-capital reversal - is FCF durability real or timing
- Buyback pace at current price - management signal on their own FV
- Mid-cycle Brent assumption embedded in sell-side models
The active story around CVX is unambiguously supportive right now: energy-security, geopolitical fragmentation, and a 'war windfall' earnings frame are pushing oil majors as the safe way to own the cycle. News flow the last 72h is heavy with anticipation of a triple-digit profit spurt, Buffett's legacy oil bet being validated, and Chevron flagged as an AI-data-center power beneficiary - all narrative accelerants into a Friday print. Intensity is strong, durability moderate, and the cohort is bid.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Friday earnings tone and guide - beat/miss vs the 'triple-digit spurt' setup will make or break the near-term narrative
- WTI holding the $80-100 band that the current price implicitly requires
- Any political rhetoric on windfall taxes or pump prices as midterms approach
- Sell-side target revisions post-print - upgrades would confirm tailwind, downgrades citing DCF premium would flip it
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Jul 31, 2026, CVX was $192.31. We expect it to be $176.50 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $140.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 31, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.