Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$617.37
6-month call
Bear -9.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$560.00
Great value below
$380.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.3% to $560.00
Predicted High
$619.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$560.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 1:31 am
Bear
DE trends lower to
$560.00
(-9.3% from $617.37)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisDE is stretched well above fair value anchors ($277-305) but momentum, a risk-on tape, and a strong earnings track record support near-term stickiness. Expect a gradual fade over 6 months as late-cycle ag reality reasserts against a rich multiple, without a full mean-reversion within the window.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $650 on positive ag cycle data, or a break below $560 signaling early capitulation, would falsify this glide-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $617.37 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $617.37 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $576.55–$658.19 typical range · internal point $619.50 | — | ±6.6% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum carry near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $588.67 on Aug 19, 2026 = -4.7% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.0 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $558.21–$676.53 typical range · internal point $615.00 | — | ±9.6% | 6/10 | Drift as CNH read-through digested |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $605.00 | — | -2.0% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity starts pulling gently lower |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $592.00 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | Late-cycle ag narrative reasserts, multiple compresses |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $580.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax-related trims on winners |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $572.00 | — | -7.3% | 4/10 | Guidance reset risk into next fiscal year |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $560.00 | — | -9.3% | 3/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline, still above fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $557.68 (-9.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Degraded
[critical] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $617.37 |
| Composite fair value | $277.02 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $305.05 |
| DCF fair value | $247.30 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $380.00 |
| Value net score | -59 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +37 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.0% 3m 33.2% 6m 35.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.73 3m 0.67 5m 0.70 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 16.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | DE-20260805-000621-32f8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-DE-20260805-011617-bba2 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-DE-20260805-011617-bba2 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-DE-20260805-011617-bba2 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-DE-20260805-011617-bba2 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | DE-20260805-000621-32f8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | DE-20260805-000621-32f8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $617.37 | $560.00 | -9.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 28, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.