Made on
Aug 24, 2026
Price at call
$91.00
6-month call
Bull +14.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$104.00
Great value below
$78.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+14.3% to $104.00
Predicted High
$104.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$88.50
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 24, 2026 1:01 pm
Bull
DECK trends higher to
$104.00
(+14.3% from $91.00)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisDECK trades at a discount to composite fair value with strong quality, but negative sentiment around HOKA deceleration and a sour footwear tape keeps near-term pressure on. Expect early drift lower or sideways, then gradual mean-reversion toward the $100-105 zone as value gravity and earnings resilience reassert over the six-month window.
Invalidated ifA break below $78 on HOKA guide-down or a bearish print, or failure to reclaim $95 by m3, would falsify the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $91.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 24, 2026 | — | $91.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 7, 2026 | $83.82–$98.18 typical range · internal point $90.00 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag persists in calm tape, mild drift |
| What actually happened: closed $85.81 on Sep 4, 2026 = -5.7% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 24, 2026 | $80.60–$101.40 typical range · internal point $88.50 | — | ±11.4% | 5/10 | HOKA peer weakness pressures shares near term |
| What actually happened: closed $78.59 on Sep 23, 2026 = -13.6% vs the call (predicted -2.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $92.00 | — | +1.1% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, value buyers step in |
| 3 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $97.00 | — | +6.6% | 5/10 | Q2 print likely beats, sentiment inflects |
| 4 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $100.00 | — | +9.9% | 5/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $102.50 | — | +12.6% | 4/10 | Quality re-rating as HOKA fears fade |
| 6 months | Feb 24, 2027 | $104.00 | — | +14.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward DCF and anchored-PE midpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $99.06 (+8.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $91.00 |
| Composite fair value | $100.36 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $116.29 |
| DCF fair value | $101.32 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $130.88 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $78.00 |
| Value net score | -6 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +68 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.2% 3m 39.6% 6m 39.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.59 3m 0.87 5m 1.29 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -22.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 24d behind | DECK-20260730-185733-1615 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-DECK-20260823-234740-589c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-DECK-20260823-234740-589c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-DECK-20260823-234740-589c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-DECK-20260823-234740-589c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | DECK-20260823-233001-64c8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | DECK-20260823-233001-64c8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.