Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$405.37
6-month call
Bear -12.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$355.00
Great value below
$220.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.4% to $355.00
Predicted High
$418.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$355.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:01 am
Bear
DELL trends lower to
$355.00
(-12.4% from $405.37)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisDELL has ripped 242% in six months on the AI-infrastructure narrative and trades at roughly 2.5x composite fair value. Momentum and the AI bid can extend near-term, but with a 2.81 beta, no earnings catalyst on the calendar, and a neutral regime, gravity toward fair value should begin bleeding the stock lower over the back half of the window.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $450 on strong AI hyperscaler capex news, or conversely a break below $340 that confirms momentum unwind earlier than modeled.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $405.37 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $405.37 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $326.78–$483.96 typical range · internal point $412.00 | — | ±19.4% | 6/10 | Momentum and AI bid persist near-term absent catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $490.82 on Aug 14, 2026 = +21.1% vs the call (predicted +1.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 19.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±19.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $291.48–$519.26 typical range · internal point $418.00 | — | ±28.1% | 5/10 | Continued AI narrative flow, no earnings friction |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $400.00 | — | -1.3% | 4/10 | High-beta name digests gains in neutral tape |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $385.00 | — | -5.0% | 4/10 | Earnings-adjacent window; valuation gravity begins |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $372.00 | — | -8.2% | 4/10 | Year-end de-risking on extended AI winners |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $362.00 | — | -10.7% | 4/10 | Fresh-year positioning rotates from crowded longs |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $355.00 | — | -12.4% | 4/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $358.21 (-11.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $405.37 |
| Composite fair value | $154.62 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $167.01 |
| DCF fair value | $138.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $202.56 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $220.00 |
| Value net score | -81 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +41 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 86.7% 3m 97.3% 6m 83.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 6.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.76 3m 2.81 5m 1.88 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 242.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | DELL-20260730-180557-b896 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DELL-20260730-183809-89e2 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DELL-20260730-183809-89e2 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DELL-20260730-183809-89e2 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DELL-20260730-183809-89e2 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | DELL-20260730-180557-b896 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | DELL-20260730-180557-b896 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $405.37 | $355.00 | -12.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.