Made on
Jul 27, 2026
Price at call
$146.76
6-month call
Bear -12.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$128.00
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.8% to $128.00
Predicted High
$145.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$128.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 27, 2026 12:58 am
Bear
DHI trends lower to
$128.00
(-12.8% from $146.76)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisDHI trades well above composite fair value ($119) with deeply negative sentiment and forensic caution, but a supportive buyback and neutral regime blunt the immediate downside. Expect gradual value-gravity drift lower over the six months as late-cycle housing anxieties compound, with modest bounces along the way.
Invalidated ifA break above $158 on strong housing data or a decisive rate-cut cycle would falsify the drift-lower thesis; conversely a break below $125 without recovery accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $146.76 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 27, 2026 | — | $146.76 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 10, 2026 | $136.18–$157.34 typical range · internal point $145.20 | — | ±7.2% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag offset by buyback support near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $151.08 on Aug 7, 2026 = +2.9% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.0 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.2%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 27, 2026 | $131.43–$162.09 typical range · internal point $142.50 | — | ±10.4% | 6/10 | Neutral regime, drift toward baseline as momentum fades |
| 2 months | Sep 27, 2026 | $139.00 | — | -5.3% | 5/10 | Housing narrative weakens, peer margin cracks weigh |
| 3 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $135.50 | — | -7.7% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value zone |
| 4 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $133.00 | — | -9.4% | 4/10 | Late-cycle concerns deepen, forensic caution lingers |
| 5 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $130.50 | — | -11.1% | 4/10 | Year-end tax selling, sentiment remains negative |
| 6 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $128.00 | — | -12.8% | 3/10 | Convergence toward anchored-PE and composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $142.40 (-3.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Degraded
AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $146.76 |
| Composite fair value | $118.95 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $102.29 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $115.03 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | -83 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +21 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.3% 3m 36.2% 6m 35.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.75 3m 1.13 5m 1.11 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -5.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | DHI-20260727-000446-b756 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DHI-20260727-004658-d45e |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DHI-20260727-004658-d45e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DHI-20260727-004658-d45e |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DHI-20260727-004658-d45e |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | DHI-20260727-000446-b756 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | DHI-20260727-000446-b756 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $146.76 | $128.00 | -12.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.