Made on
Sep 3, 2026
Price at call
$130.61
6-month call
Bull +13.7%
Target by Mar 2027
$148.50
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+13.7% to $148.50
Predicted High
$148.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$133.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 3, 2026 1:04 pm
Bull
DLTR trends higher to
$148.50
(+13.7% from $130.61)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSentiment tailwind from trade-down narrative and beat streak supports near-term drift higher, while value gravity toward the $156-177 fair-value zone pulls the medium-term path up, tempered by quality/value concerns capping upside.
Invalidated ifA sentiment reversal below $115 or guidance cut breaking the beat streak would falsify the upward drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $130.61 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 3, 2026 | — | $130.61 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 17, 2026 | $121.42–$139.80 typical range · internal point $133.20 | — | ±7.0% | 7/10 | Momentum and trade-down narrative extend post-earnings drift |
| What actually happened: closed $112.40 on Sep 16, 2026 = -13.9% vs the call (predicted +2.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 15.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -2.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 3, 2026 | $117.29–$143.93 typical range · internal point $135.80 | — | ±10.2% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists in neutral regime |
| What actually happened: closed $112.27 on Oct 2, 2026 = -14.0% vs the call (predicted +4.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 18.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $138.50 | — | +6.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 3 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $141.00 | — | +8.0% | 5/10 | Holiday discounter positioning supports bid |
| 4 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $143.50 | — | +9.9% | 4/10 | Post-holiday digestion, quality concerns cap upside |
| 5 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $146.00 | — | +11.8% | 4/10 | Drift toward DCF anchor continues |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $148.50 | — | +13.7% | 4/10 | Convergence toward $152 DCF with valuation friction |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $134.92 (+3.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $130.61 |
| Composite fair value | $177.11 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $178.81 |
| DCF fair value | $152.45 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $338.67 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | -22 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -24 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.2% 3m 35.3% 6m 44.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.08 3m 0.29 5m 0.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 11.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | DLTR-20260903-020002-aab5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DLTR-20260903-022610-edc1 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DLTR-20260903-022610-edc1 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DLTR-20260903-022610-edc1 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DLTR-20260903-022610-edc1 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | DLTR-20260903-020002-aab5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | DLTR-20260903-020002-aab5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $130.61 | $148.50 | +13.7% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.