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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
19 days ago · 100% complete

Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR NASDAQ Categories PDF
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Chesapeake, VA 23320, United States IPO 1995 dollartree.com Updated Jun 7, 5:14pm
Price
$108.80
Market Cap
$20.9B
Employees
153,032
Beta
0.66
Avg Volume
3,782,874
CEO
Michael C. Creedon Jr.
Business Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:15pm (19d ago)
$108.80
-0.47 (-0.43%)
Day Range
$107.93 – $110.77
52-Week Range
$84.71 – $142.40
50-Day MA
$100.71
200-Day MA
$109.40
Volume
2,036,170.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $85.00
Consensus $124.25
High $165.00
(110 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 192,175,000.00
Float 179,481,456.00
Free Float 93.4%
High free float — 93.4% of shares trade freely, ~6.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:21pm (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:21pm (19d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:17pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
16.64
Stock Price: $108.80
EPS (Diluted): 6.22
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
6.44
Stock Price: $108.80
Total Equity: $3.75B
Shares: 206,300,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.07
Market Cap: $20.91B
Total Debt: $4.62B
Cash: $717.80M
EBITDA: $2.25B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$28.1B
Market Cap: $20.91B
Total Debt: $4.62B
Cash: $717.80M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
36.4%
Gross Profit: $7.07B
Revenue: $19.41B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
8.2%
Operating Income: $1.60B
Revenue: $19.41B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
6.6%
Net Income: $1.28B
Revenue: $19.41B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
35.9%
Net Income: $1.28B
Total Equity: $3.75B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
10.9%
Operating Income: $1.60B
Tax Rate: 24.8%
Equity: $3.75B
Total Debt: $4.62B
Cash: $717.80M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.07
Current Assets: $3.45B
Current Liabilities: $3.23B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.23
Short-Term Debt: $1.00B
Long-Term Debt: $3.62B
Total Debt: $4.62B
Total Equity: $3.75B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$94.10
Revenue: $19.41B
Shares: 206,300,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$18.20
Total Equity: $3.75B
Shares: 206,300,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$6.77
Operating CF: $2.53B
CapEx: -$1.13B
Shares: 206,300,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $108.80
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.28B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:17pm
Compares DLTR against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:21:10 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:21pm (19d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $26.3B $15.4B $16.8B $17.6B $19.4B
Cost of Revenue $18.6B $9.6B $10.8B $11.3B $12.3B
Gross Profit $7.7B $5.8B $6.0B $6.3B $7.1B
Operating Expenses $5.9B $3.7B $4.2B $4.8B $5.5B
Operating Income $1.8B $2.1B $1.8B $1.5B $1.6B
Net Income $1.3B $1.6B -$998.4M -$3.0B $1.3B
EBITDA $2.5B $2.5B $2.2B $2.0B $2.2B
EPS $5.83 $7.24 $-4.55 $-14.05 $6.22
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:17pm (19d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $984.9M $642.8M $425.2M $1.3B $717.8M
Total Current Assets $5.6B $6.4B $6.1B $9.1B $3.4B
Total Assets $21.7B $23.0B $22.0B $18.6B $13.5B
Current Liabilities $4.2B $4.2B $4.7B $8.6B $3.2B
Long-Term Debt $3.4B $3.4B $3.4B $2.4B $3.6B
Total Liabilities $14.0B $14.3B $14.7B $14.7B $9.7B
Total Equity $7.7B $8.8B $7.3B $4.0B $3.8B
Retained Earnings $6.5B $8.1B $7.1B $3.9B $3.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:21pm (19d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $1.4B $1.6B $2.7B $2.9B $2.5B
Capital Expenditure -$1.0B -$1.3B -$2.1B -$1.3B -$1.1B
Free Cash Flow $408.7M $361.0M $576.9M $1.6B $1.4B
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$950.0M -$647.5M -$500.0M -$400.0M -$1.5B
Net Change in Cash -$425.3M -$327.0M $45.9M $754.0M -$538.7M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:15pm (19d ago)
Metric 2028 2029 2030 2031
Revenue $21.9B
$21.6B – $22.0B
$23.1B
$23.0B – $23.1B
$24.2B
$23.9B – $24.4B
$25.0B
$24.7B – $25.2B
EBITDA $2.7B
$2.7B – $2.7B
$2.8B
$2.8B – $2.8B
$3.0B
$2.9B – $3.0B
$3.1B
$3.0B – $3.1B
Net Income $1.6B
$1.5B – $1.6B
$1.5B
$1.4B – $1.9B
$1.8B
$1.8B – $1.8B
$1.6B
$1.6B – $1.6B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:21pm (19d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth -41.4% +8.9% +4.8% +10.4%
Gross Profit Growth -25.3% +4.1% +4.6% +12.3%
Operating Income Growth +15.9% -15.5% -17.6% +9.3%
Net Income Growth +21.7% -161.8% -203.5% +142.3%
EBITDA Growth -2.5% -11.7% -7.2% +11.3%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:21pm (19d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP C-Conversion 602,170.00 $148.86 $89.6M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 2,230,455.00 $111.31 $248.3M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP J-Other 10,266,164.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP C-Conversion 602,170.00 $148.86 $89.6M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 33,981.00 $148.86 $5.1M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 900,360.00 $153.87 $138.5M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 2,501,339.00 $153.87 $384.9M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 6,231,104.00 $148.86 $927.6M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 70,259.00 $105.21 $7.4M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 21,499.00 $105.48 $2.3M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 146,571.00 $105.71 $15.5M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 178,586.00 $104.25 $18.6M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 237,336.00 $105.37 $25.0M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 190,199.00 $104.87 $19.9M
2026-06-24 Mantle Ridge LP S-Sale 78,711.00 $105.77 $8.3M
2026-04-01 Maheshwari Aditya A-Award 1,955.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 Maheshwari Aditya F-InKind 773.00 $108.70 $84,025
2026-04-01 Glendinning Stewart A-Award 18,399.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 Glendinning Stewart F-InKind 4,864.00 $108.70 $528,717
2026-04-01 Aflatooni Robert A-Award 8,739.00 $0.00 $0
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for DLTR — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 17:21:47
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued at $108.8 post-Family Dollar divestiture — fair value $105–120 on continuing ops; hold/starter only, wait for sub-$95 or a clean tariff-resolution catalyst for a real position.

The revenue line in this file is deeply misleading and none of the prior models flagged it hard enough. DLTR sold Family Dollar — that's why FY2026 revenue prints $19.4B versus $30.6B run-rate in late FY2025 (the $7.57B and $7.38B quarters). The "recent_revenue_yoy: 10.4%" and "revenue_cagr: 7.6%" numbers in the momentum block are comparing post-divestiture continuing ops against pre-divestiture consolidated figures and are essentially garbage. Real Dollar Tree banner same-store growth is mid-single digits. So when the synthesis says the market expects "3.7% annual FCF growth," that's roughly right for the remaining business, but the framing that this is a "turnaround" is stale — the turnaround was the decision to jettison Family Dollar, and that's already executed. This is now a cleaner, higher-margin pure-play discounter, not a two-headed mess.

On the standalone Dollar Tree numbers, the trajectory is actually quite good and the models are underweighting it. Q1 FY2026 (May print) did $4.98B revenue with $347M NI (7.0% margin) versus $4.64B and 7.4% prior year — call it 7% top-line growth at maintained margins, with the holiday quarter (Jan 2026) hitting 9.3% net margin and $506M NI. Annualizing the last four quarters gives roughly $19.75B revenue and $1.29B NI, so the trailing P/E of 16.6x on a $20.9B cap checks out. FCF of $1.40B against a $20.9B EV gives ~6.7% FCF yield, and the 35.9% ROE / 10.9% ROIC are legitimately strong for a discount retailer — better than DG (struggling) and competitive with COST on capital efficiency though obviously not on scale. The Market Forces verdict calling this "distressed turnaround" and "speculative bet" is just wrong post-divestiture; that take was written for the old conglomerate.

The contrarian case I'd actually take seriously is different from what the bear narrative offers. It's not the $1.25 ceiling — that ship sailed and worked. It's that (1) tariff exposure is acute since Dollar Tree sources heavily from China and the fixed-price model has limited ability to pass through 10–25% input cost shocks without breaking unit economics again, (2) DG is wounded and will fight viciously on price and footprint in 2026–2027, compressing the rural moat, and (3) the insider activity is 100% awards and tax-withholding F-InKind events — zero open-market buys despite a stock that traded down to $84 in the last 52 weeks. Insiders had a layup buying opportunity and passed. The "Neutral Insider Activity" tag is too generous; absence of buys at the lows is a soft negative. Also worth noting: cash of $718M with undisclosed debt (the file shows "—") is a real gap — DLTR carried ~$3.4B long-term debt last I checked, so EV/EBITDA of 12.1x is the right anchor, not the P/E.

I dissent mildly from the "Reasonable Premium" synthesis verdict — I think it's closer to fairly valued to modestly cheap on the continuing-ops business. At 12x EV/EBITDA, 16.6x P/E, ~6.7% FCF yield, with 7% organic top-line growth and a freshly simplified business, this is priced like a mature compounder with execution risk, which is roughly right. The bull case to $130–140 requires margin expansion past 8% operating (currently 8.2% — basically there) and continued mid-single-digit comps; the bear case to $85–90 requires tariff-driven margin compression back to 5–6%. Risk/reward at $108.8 is symmetric rather than asymmetric, so I wouldn't chase, but I'd disagree with the Market Forces "speculative" framing — this is now an ordinary mid-cap retailer at a fair price. The real question is whether you want consumer-defensive exposure at all given the macro headwinds flag, and there I'd argue DLTR's trade-down beneficiary status is underappreciated if the consumer weakens further.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 17:21:52
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I concur with Opus — Dollar Tree is fairly valued at $108.8, with fair value pegged between $105 and $120. The divestiture has clarified its operations, but tariff exposure remains a critical risk.

Dollar Tree's recent financial data reveals a company undergoing significant structural changes. The divestiture of Family Dollar is a pivotal development, fundamentally altering its revenue profile. The sharp decrease in annual revenues from $26.32 billion in FY2022 to $19.41 billion in FY2026 reflects this strategic shift. Despite this, the company has managed to maintain its operational strength with a rebound in net income to $1.28 billion in FY2026 from a significant loss in FY2025. The company’s robust operating cash flow of $2.53 billion and free cash flow of $1.40 billion, coupled with a decent operating margin of 8.23%, indicate solid financial health. The current revenue growth of 7% in the latest quarter and stable net margins suggest that Dollar Tree is managing well as a standalone entity, albeit with the challenge of maintaining this growth in the face of market headwinds.

I agree with Opus that the "turnaround" narrative is outdated and that Dollar Tree is now a cleaner, more focused business post-divestiture. The assertion that the company is no longer a "two-headed mess" is accurate, as the divestiture of Family Dollar allows for clarity in operations and financial reporting. I also concur with the assessment that Dollar Tree is fairly valued given its current financial metrics—specifically, the P/E ratio of 16.6x and a 6.7% FCF yield are fitting for a mature discount retailer. However, I diverge from Opus on the magnitude of insider activity's significance. While Opus notes a lack of insider buying as a soft negative, I see it as a more neutral factor given the structural changes and the potential need for insiders to maintain liquidity during a transitional period.

Opus' concern about potential tariff exposure is valid, as it could impact Dollar Tree's cost structure. The heavy reliance on Chinese imports is a vulnerability that cannot be overlooked, especially in a volatile geopolitical climate. However, I believe the market has reasonably incorporated this risk into the current valuation. Moreover, Opus' skepticism regarding Dollar General's competitive threat is compelling. A wounded competitor could indeed disrupt Dollar Tree's pricing strategy and market share, though I consider this a moderate risk given Dollar Tree’s established brand strength and operational efficiency.

A careful skeptic might argue that both my and Opus’s analyses underplay the potential for macroeconomic deterioration to impact consumer spending in discount stores. If economic conditions worsen significantly, even value-focused retailers like Dollar Tree might see compressed margins and reduced consumer traffic, contrary to the notion of being a "trade-down beneficiary." Additionally, the undisclosed total debt figure is a notable omission that could conceal leverage risks not fully reflected in the EV/EBITDA metric.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30