Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$20.91
6-month call
Bull +11.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$23.40
Great value below
$18.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.9% to $23.40
Predicted High
$23.40
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$20.75
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:00 am
Bull
DOCS trends higher to
$23.40
(+11.9% from $20.91)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisDOCS is oversold with quality intact and fair value materially above spot, but sentiment is deeply negative and no near-term catalyst exists. Expect stabilization and a slow drift toward the signal-adjusted anchor as the tape normalizes, with the biggest gains in the back half of the window.
Invalidated ifA break below $18.50 on volume or a guidance cut would invalidate; failure to reclaim $22 by m3 also weakens the thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $20.91 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $20.91 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $18.01–$23.81 typical range · internal point $20.75 | — | ±13.9% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang keeps price near spot short term |
| What actually happened: closed $24.80 on Aug 14, 2026 = +18.6% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 19.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $16.70–$25.12 typical range · internal point $21.10 | — | ±20.1% | 5/10 | Mild mean-reversion as selling exhausts, no catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $21.60 | — | +3.3% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, quality reassessment begins |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $22.30 | — | +6.6% | 4/10 | Earnings window: beat history supports modest lift |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $22.90 | — | +9.5% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward signal-adjusted anchor |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $23.20 | — | +11.0% | 3/10 | Year-end rotation into oversold quality names |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $23.40 | — | +11.9% | 3/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $23.39 (+11.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $20.91 |
| Composite fair value | $25.11 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $23.35 |
| DCF fair value | $24.62 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $42.49 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $18.50 |
| Value net score | +10 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.1% 3m 69.7% 6m 63.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.01 3m -0.43 5m 0.01 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -45.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | DOCS-20260730-182637-5082 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCS-20260730-184831-fa43 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCS-20260730-184831-fa43 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCS-20260730-184831-fa43 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCS-20260730-184831-fa43 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | DOCS-20260730-182637-5082 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | DOCS-20260730-182637-5082 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $20.91 | $23.40 | +11.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.