Made on
Aug 30, 2026
Price at call
$198.68
6-month call
Bear -7.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$183.50
Great value below
$135.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.6% to $183.50
Predicted High
$201.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$183.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 30, 2026 1:02 pm
Bear
DOV trends lower to
$183.50
(-7.6% from $198.68)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisDOV trades well above every fundamental anchor with a mildly supportive risk-on tape offsetting a stretched compounder narrative. Near-term drift is roughly flat with a mild positive tilt from regime, then value gravity reasserts as the multiple digests toward the anchored-PE fair value near 219 fails to hold and DCF pulls lower. Path drifts modestly down over six months, converging near the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above 210 on strong volume or a print-free rally past 215 would invalidate the fade thesis; conversely a break below 180 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $198.68 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 30, 2026 | — | $198.68 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 13, 2026 | $187.32–$210.04 typical range · internal point $200.10 | — | ±5.7% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and low vol support mild drift up |
| What actually happened: closed $189.05 on Sep 11, 2026 = -4.9% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.6 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±5.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 30, 2026 | $182.22–$215.14 typical range · internal point $201.50 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | Momentum holds without catalyst, sentiment neutral |
| What actually happened: closed $189.70 on Sep 29, 2026 = -4.5% vs the call (predicted +1.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.9 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±8.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $197.00 | — | -0.8% | 5/10 | Q3 print window pressure, valuation gravity begins |
| 3 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $192.50 | — | -3.1% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, multiple compression starts |
| 4 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $189.00 | — | -4.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims stretched compounders |
| 5 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $186.00 | — | -6.4% | 4/10 | January reset, fair-value anchors pull lower |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $183.50 | — | -7.6% | 4/10 | Convergence toward anchored-PE and DCF midpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $183.80 (-7.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Degraded
[critical] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $198.68 |
| Composite fair value | $115.55 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $103.76 |
| DCF fair value | $94.42 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $219.37 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $135.00 |
| Value net score | -70 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +62 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 14.9% 3m 28.7% 6m 28.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.74 3m 0.91 5m 0.95 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | DOV-20260830-030002-c9d7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOV-20260830-032306-3cfd |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOV-20260830-032306-3cfd |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOV-20260830-032306-3cfd |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOV-20260830-032306-3cfd |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | DOV-20260830-030002-c9d7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | DOV-20260830-030002-c9d7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $198.68 | $183.50 | -7.6% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.