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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Dover Corp (DOV) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-08): Designation Low · Gem Score -17 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 62 · Value -70 · Sentiment 6 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $97.98 vs $198.68 at analysis
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Dover Corp
DOV NYSEDover Corporation is a diversified global manufacturer and solutions provider that designs equipment, components, consumables, aftermarket parts, software, digital solutions, and support services for industrial customers. Dover Corporation serves a broad range of current end markets through five operating segments: Engineered Products, Clean Energy & Fueling, Imaging & Identification, Pumps & Process Solutions, and Climate & Sustainability Technologies. Its offerings support vehicle aftermarket, aerospace and defense, industrial winch and hoist, fluid dispensing, convenience retail, fueling, clean energy, cryogenic gas, vehicle wash, chemical, bioproduction, hygienic, energy, and other industrial applications. The company focuses on helping customers improve safety, reliability, productivity, and efficiency with specialized technologies and service support. Headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois, Dover Corporation operates as a key industrial platform with a portfolio built around mission-critical products used across manufacturing, transportation, energy, and process industries.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.94
Total Equity: $7.41B
Shares: 137,777,000
Total Debt: $4.04B
Cash: $1.68B
EBITDA: $1.75B
Total Debt: $4.04B
Cash: $1.68B
Revenue: $8.09B
Revenue: $8.09B
Revenue: $8.09B
Total Equity: $7.41B
Tax Rate: 20.1%
Equity: $7.41B
Total Debt: $4.04B
Cash: $1.68B
Current Liabilities: $2.52B
Long-Term Debt: $2.63B
Total Debt: $4.04B
Total Equity: $7.41B
Shares: 137,777,000
Shares: 137,777,000
CapEx: -$220.26M
Shares: 137,777,000
Stock Price: $198.68
Net Income: $1.09B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 30, 2026 3:10am (39d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.9B | $8.5B | $8.4B | $7.7B | $8.1B |
| Cost of Revenue | $4.9B | $5.4B | $5.4B | $4.8B | $4.9B |
| Gross Profit | $3.0B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $3.0B | $3.2B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| Operating Income | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $2.7B | $1.1B |
| EBITDA | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.8B |
| EPS | $7.81 | $7.47 | $7.56 | $19.58 | $7.99 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $7.74 | $7.42 | $7.52 | $19.45 | $7.94 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 30, 2026 3:00am (39d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $385.5M | $380.9M | $398.6M | $1.8B | $1.7B |
| Total Current Assets | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.4B | $4.5B | $4.5B |
| Total Assets | $10.4B | $10.9B | $11.3B | $12.5B | $13.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.3B | $2.8B | $2.4B | $2.2B | $2.5B |
| Long-Term Debt | $3.0B | $2.9B | $3.0B | $2.5B | $2.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $6.2B | $6.6B | $6.2B | $5.6B | $6.0B |
| Total Equity | $4.2B | $4.3B | $5.1B | $7.0B | $7.4B |
| Retained Earnings | $9.4B | $10.2B | $11.0B | $13.4B | $14.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 30, 2026 3:23am (39d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | — | $746.8M | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$171.5M | -$221.0M | -$192.6M | -$167.5M | -$220.3M |
| Free Cash Flow | — | $525.8M | $1.0B | $920.3M | $1.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$1.1B | -$312.9M | -$533.6M | -$635.3M | -$663.3M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | — | $0 | $0 | $231.2M |
| Dividends Paid | -$286.9M | -$287.6M | -$284.3M | -$283.1M | -$283.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$21.6M | -$585.0M | $0 | -$500.0M | -$540.7M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$127.6M | -$4.6M | $35.0M | $1.4B | -$168.1M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 30, 2026 3:10am (39d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +7.6% | -0.8% | -8.2% | +4.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +3.2% | +0.7% | -4.1% | +8.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | +7.6% | -0.9% | -11.7% | +13.8% |
| Net Income Growth | -5.2% | -0.8% | +155.2% | -59.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +7.3% | -0.2% | -8.3% | +13.5% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 30, 2026 3:00am (39d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-28 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-28 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-31 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-29 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-30 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-30 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-27 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-29 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-30 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-27 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-25 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-29 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-04 02:02A +1σ run of quarters pays -48%; a −1σ run costs 71%. Ratio -0.7:1 (μ 3.9%, σ 7.4% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.9 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($198.68) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +6% | 17.3% | $99.28 | -50% |
| Base — stabilizes | +4% | 15.0% | $82.74 | -58% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +2% | 12.8% | $67.79 | -66% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +5% | 14.6% | $83.34 | -58% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +11% | 14.7% | $102.70 | -48% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -4% | 12.8% | $57.32 | -71% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-30 03:33The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterlies first: Dover is running at roughly $8.3B annualized revenue (2026 H1 sum ~$4.24B implies ~$8.4-8.5B full year), versus $8.09B in 2025 and $8.51B in 2022 — so four years of essentially flat top line with a dip in between. Net income the last four quarters totals ~$1.13B, so trailing net margin is ~13.5% and trailing EPS on 135M shares is ~$8.40, putting the real (ex-2024-gain) P/E closer to 23.6x, not the "25x" headline. The 2024 net income of $2.70B is a divestiture gain (Environmental Solutions Group sale to Terex) — stripping it, underlying earnings growth is barely positive. FCF at $1.12B on a $26.8B cap is a 4.2% yield; adequate, not cheap. ROIC of 11.2% is fine for an industrial but nothing that justifies premium multiples on its own.
The synthesis model's $103.76 fair value strikes me as too punitive. A DCF that anchors a diversified industrial with 11% ROIC, 14% incremental margins Q/Q (Q2 2026 margin of 14.3% vs. Q1's 11.6% and Q1 2025's 12.4% shows real operating leverage returning), and $1.12B FCF at ~$104 implies roughly 12x earnings — that's a recessionary trough multiple for a business that isn't in a recession. Peer group (ITW at ~26x, EMR at ~22x, ROP at ~32x, IEX at ~26x) trades in the 22-28x band. A more defensible fair value using 19-21x normalized EPS of ~$8.75 gets you to $166-184, meaning DOV is 8-20% overvalued, not 48%. The synthesis is directionally right (overvalued) but the magnitude is a modeling artifact of DCF assumptions that penalize negative revenue CAGR without weighting the margin recovery underway.
The narrative layer is more honest: 91% premium to DCF anchored by a decarbonization/platform story. I'd push back on "platform-monopoly" archetype — Dover is a mini-ITW at best, not a platform. Clean Energy & Fueling is ~19% of revenue and grew modestly; it's not enough to rerate the whole company. The bear case that this is "a mature conglomerate masquerading as a growth platform" fits the -2.1% revenue CAGR and 1.7% earnings CAGR far better than the bull case. That said, the sequential Q2 2026 acceleration (revenue up 6.8% YoY, margin up 70bps YoY) suggests the destocking cycle in bio-pharma pumps and heat exchangers may finally be ending — this is the swing factor. If Q3/Q4 confirm mid-single-digit organic growth with margin expansion, the current multiple survives; if they don't, this compresses toward $170.
Contrarian read the models miss: Dover has a legitimate capital-return story that DCF undersells. $1.34B OCF, ~$220M capex, $280M dividends leaves ~$840M for buybacks/M&A annually; at current cap that's ~3% share reduction potential. Debt/equity 0.55 and net debt/EBITDA ~1.5x is underlevered for an industrial roll-up — they have dry powder. The insider signal is a nothingburger (one F-InKind of 173 shares is a tax withholding, not a sell). Where the data is genuinely thin: quarterly revenue confidence is flagged low, and the segment mix shift post-ESG divestiture makes YoY comparisons noisy through mid-2025 — the models are working with a portfolio that just changed shape. I dissent from the synthesis magnitude but agree with direction. This is overvalued by ~10-15%, not 48%; the narrative premium is real but bounded because Dover is boring enough that speculative capital never fully embraces it. No margin of safety at $198, but calling it a $104 stock is wrong. Wait for a $170-175 print (either from a soft Q3 or industrial-sector drawdown) and this becomes interesting; short thesis is weak because quality and buybacks provide a floor.
GPT Reading
Dover looks like a good business priced like a better one. Strip out the obvious accounting distortion in 2024 net income and the earnings power is fairly stable rather than rapidly compounding: annual revenue was $8.51B in 2022, $8.44B in 2023, $7.75B in 2024, and $8.09B in 2025. That is basically flat to slightly down over a four-year span, not the profile of a premium industrial grower. Operating income tells a similar story: $1.38B in 2022, $1.37B in 2023, $1.21B in 2024, and back to $1.37B in 2025. So the company has recovered margins well, but it has not broken into a higher earnings orbit. The latest two quarters are decent — Q1 2026 revenue of $2.05B up from $1.87B a year earlier and Q2 2026 revenue of $2.19B up from $2.05B, with net margins improving from 12.4% to 14.3% year over year — yet that only gets you to a run-rate of roughly $8.5B-$8.7B revenue and maybe $1.1B-$1.2B of normalized net income. Against a $26.8B market cap, that is expensive.
The valuation metrics are the central issue. At 25.0x earnings, 16.9x EV/EBITDA, 3.38x sales, and 3.65x EV/revenue, the market is paying a substantial premium for a company with low single-digit organic-looking growth, mid-to-high teens operating margins, and ROIC of 11.2%. Those are solid industrial quality numbers, but not rare enough to justify nearly 17x EBITDA unless growth is set to accelerate or the portfolio is about to rerate structurally. Free cash flow of $1.12B on a $26.76B equity value is only about a 4.2% FCF yield. That is acceptable for a business with a long runway to compound, but Dover’s own history here shows resiliency more than compounding. Balance sheet risk is manageable — $4.04B debt against $1.68B cash and $7.41B equity is fine, and a 1.79 current ratio is healthy — so this is not a solvency short. It is simply a case where the stock embeds a best-version multiple on merely good fundamentals.
What stands out to me is that the market seems to be rewarding the “quality diversified industrial with energy-transition optionality” narrative much more than the reported operating arc. If I annualize the first half of 2026 net income, I get about $551M through six months, pointing to perhaps $1.1B-$1.2B for the year if the back half is normal. On that basis the stock is still around 22x-24x earnings. There is nothing in the revenue history to say Dover has escaped the mature industrial gravity that keeps most peers in the mid-to-high teens multiple range. Even the gross margin at 39.8% and operating margin at 17.0% are good but not explosively improving. The dividend yield at just 1.05% also tells you shareholders are not being paid much to wait if growth disappoints. My read is that the stock deserves a premium to a generic cyclical machinery name, but not this much of one. A fairer range is closer to 17x-19x normalized earnings, which on roughly $8.00-$8.75 of sustainable EPS implies something like $140-$165, not $199.
The strongest pushback is that Dover may deserve to be judged on quality and durability rather than top-line growth alone. Free cash flow conversion is real: $1.34B of operating cash flow and $1.12B of free cash flow in 2025 against $1.09B of net income is clean. Return metrics are healthy, leverage is controlled, and the recent quarters do show reacceleration after a softer 2024. If Q2 2026’s 14.3% net margin is closer to the new normal than the old one, then incremental revenue growth can drop through attractively. A bull would also argue the annual revenue line is muddied by portfolio moves and that the better way to look at Dover is as a curated set of niche franchises with recurring aftermarket and exposure to cleaner-energy capex, where 25x earnings is not absurd. I take that seriously. But even giving credit for quality, the current price already assumes sustained execution, continued margin strength, and no cyclical air pocket. That is too little room for error for an industrial at this stage.
What would change my mind is simple: I would need to see growth and cash flow step up enough to earn the multiple. Specifically, if 2026 revenue can clear $8.6B, operating income can move toward $1.5B, and free cash flow can approach $1.3B-$1.4B without relying on one-offs, then the premium case becomes much more defensible. I would also want evidence that the Q1/Q2 2026 acceleration is broad and durable, not just easy comps. Conversely, if revenue slips back toward the $8.1B-$8.3B band or margins retreat from the mid-teens net level, the current valuation should compress.
Grok Reading
Dover’s own books undercut the multiple the market is assigning. Normalized earnings power sits near $1.09B on $8.09B of 2025 revenue—net margin 13.5%, operating margin 17.0%, FCF $1.12B after only $220M of capex—yet the stock clears $198.68 for a $26.8B enterprise that has delivered a −2.1% revenue CAGR and a 1.7% earnings CAGR over the measured window. The 2024 NI spike to $2.70B (Q4 margin 74%) is an obvious one-time distortion; strip it and you have a steady mid-teens ROE business growing mid-single digits at best. Recent quarters show sequential recovery—$1.87B → $2.05B → $2.08B → $2.10B → $2.05B → $2.19B—but that merely restores revenue toward the 2022–23 peak of ~$8.5B, not a new growth regime. At 25× trailing earnings, 16.9× EV/EBITDA and a 4.2% FCF yield, the price embeds the assumption that this portfolio will compound like a growth platform rather than a mature industrial earner with 0.55× debt-to-equity and a 1.05% dividend. The numbers describe competence and cash conversion, not acceleration.
The cleanest contradiction is between the “platform compounder / energy-transition” story and the actual trajectory. Gross margin has held near 40% and free-cash-flow quality is genuinely good, but revenue confidence is flagged low and the quarterly trend is still decelerating on a longer view. Diversification across Engineered Products, Clean Energy & Fueling and the rest reduces single-cycle risk; it does not manufacture the multi-year volume inflection required to justify a full turn above typical specialty-machinery multiples. A 14–16× earnings framework on current run-rate NI already implies a $120–140 zone; 25× only works if Clean Energy, Imaging and aftermarket software deliver the secular re-rating the narrative promises. So far the P&L has not.
The strongest counter-case is that Dover is exactly the kind of high-quality industrial the market should pay up for: durable 11% ROIC, fortress balance sheet ($1.68B cash against $4.04B debt), low payout ratio leaving room for buybacks or tuck-ins, and genuine exposure to electrification and cryogenic/fueling capex that could re-accelerate once energy-transition spending firms. Sell-side and ESG baskets already treat it as a barbell between legacy manufacturing and green infrastructure; if that cohort is right and segments re-rate inside three years, today’s premium compresses via earnings growth rather than multiple contraction. I weigh that lightly because the same thesis has been available for several years while revenue CAGR stayed negative and the DCF-to-price gap remains ~90%. Optionality is real; it is not yet earned in the reported figures, and paying nearly two times fundamental value for it leaves no margin of safety if the capex cycle slips.
I would flip if trailing-twelve-month revenue growth sustains above 6–7% with operating margin expanding through 18%, or if Clean Energy & Fueling discloses segment-level growth and margins that clearly outrun the corporate average for two consecutive years. A decisive drop in the multiple toward 16–17× on flat earnings without a deterioration in FCF would also force a reassessment toward fair value. Until one of those arrives, the stock is priced for a story the income statement has not written.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Dover shows the profile of a mature, high-quality industrial. Revenue is essentially flat over five years (7.91B to 8.09B), but the mix and execution have improved: gross margin has stepped up meaningfully from 37.6% in 2021 to 39.8% in 2025, and operating margin sits at 17.0%, a cycle high. FCF has recovered from a negative 171M in 2021 to a run-rate above 1.0B for three consecutive years (1.03B, 920M, 1.12B), and OCF/NI of 0.87x with accruals at 3.1% of assets and Beneish M of -2.56 point to clean, cash-backed earnings. Altman Z of 5.27 places the balance sheet firmly in the safe zone despite 2.36B of net debt. Per-share discipline is a real strength: diluted share count has fallen from 145.3M to 137.8M (-1.3% CAGR), SBC is only 0.5% of revenue, and buybacks run at nearly 10x SBC, meaning management is a genuine net repurchaser, not a dilution engine. The 2024 net income spike to 2.70B reflects a divestiture gain rather than operating step-up (FCF that year was actually lower than 2023), so 2025's 1.09B is the cleaner run-rate. What keeps this from being fortress-tier is modest: net debt rather than net cash, no revenue growth to speak of over five years, and margin gains that are real but not extraordinary. Insider tape is empty of directional signal (only a routine F-InKind withholding), so no read there either way.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Segment-level organic growth versus M&A/divestiture contribution to isolate underlying demand
- Customer/end-market concentration disclosed in the 10-K
- Debt maturity ladder and interest coverage detail on the 2.36B net debt
- Composition of the 2024 net income spike (divestiture gain quantified)
- Backlog and book-to-bill trend for cyclical exposure
The e2e composite fair value lands at $115.55 and the signal-adjusted figure at $103.76, implying roughly 42-48% downside from $198.68. The DCF ($94) and EPV floor ($54) both sit well below price; only the anchored-PE method ($219) supports the tape, and that method essentially ratifies whatever multiple peers happen to trade at rather than judging deserved value. On a strong-but-not-growing business (five years of flat revenue, margins grinding up, share count down modestly), a mid-$100s deserved price is defensible; $198 is not without believing the electrification/clean-energy narrative delivers real top-line acceleration.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Organic revenue growth trajectory in clean-energy/EV/cryo segments - is the mix shift actually inflecting?
- Segment margin walk to test whether margin expansion is structural or mix/cost-out that has a ceiling
- Backlog and book-to-bill by segment
- Capital allocation split between M&A multiples paid and buyback pace
The tape is modestly risk-on (VIX 14.4, S&P near highs) and DOV's 1.16 beta means it participates in up-tape moves, so the macro backdrop is a light tailwind rather than a threat. Recent 4.5% momentum vs a -2.1% longer trend confirms the tape is currently working in the stock's favor, and the Innovation Lab news adds a small, on-narrative data point (electrification, precision components) that feeds the 'hidden compounder' story without materially changing it.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether sell-side target revisions post next print lean up or down on Clean Energy / Climate segment growth
- Any rotation signal out of quality-industrial compounders into cyclicals or defensives
- Follow-through in DOV's short-term momentum vs the broader XLI
- Cracks in the 'secular electrification' narrative from peer commentary (ITW, ROP, AME)
The world Dover sells into is not booming, and that is the point: a steady industrial capex environment with elevated long rates favors the incumbent in fragmented, mission-critical niches where the customer replaces on failure and specifies by brand. Two genuine secular currents cut through the flatness — heat rejection for compute (liquid cooling heat exchangers) and the molecule-handling build-out for CO2/hydrogen/LNG cryogenics — and Dover owns real product positions in both, which is why its growth sits above a 5% category. But these are single-digit shares of group revenue. The rest of the world's read is prosaic: vehicle aftermarket volumes, convenience-store refresh cycles, packaging line marking, biopharma restocking after the destocking hangover. That mix produces reliable mid-single-digit compounding with margin drift upward, not a step-change. The bear's structural claim (mature conglomerate) and the bull's claim (hidden secular compounder) are both partially right; the arithmetic sits closer to the bear on rate, closer to the bull on durability.
When we made this prediction on Aug 30, 2026, DOV was $198.68. We expect it to be $183.50 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $135.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 30, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence UNSETTLED
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips down 5%
adjusted_pe
flips down 5%