Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$11.75
6-month call
Bull +11.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$13.15
Great value below
$9.25
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.9% to $13.15
Predicted High
$13.15
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$11.60
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:46 am
Bull
DV trends higher to
$13.15
(+11.9% from $11.75)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisDV trades slightly below composite fair value with a mixed profile: negative value/sentiment signals but a bullish DCF and quality tilt. In a risk-on tape with no near-term earnings catalyst, expect a slow grind toward the $12-13 zone with modest overshoot as value gravity works, tempered by weak sentiment capping upside.
Invalidated ifA close below $9.25 or above $14.50 within 3 months, or a negative pre-announcement, would invalidate the drift-higher thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $11.75 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $11.75 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $10.52–$12.98 typical range · internal point $11.80 | — | ±10.4% | 6/10 | low-vol drift in quiet neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $13.30 on Aug 17, 2026 = +13.2% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 12.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $9.97–$13.53 typical range · internal point $11.60 | — | ±15.1% | 5/10 | mild sentiment drag, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $13.35 on Sep 3, 2026 = +13.6% vs the call (predicted -1.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±15.1%: inside the band · S&P -0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $11.90 | — | +1.3% | 4/10 | value gravity begins asserting toward fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $13.49 on Oct 2, 2026 = +14.8% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 13.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P -0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $12.30 | — | +4.7% | 5/10 | earnings window approaches, expectations firm |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $12.60 | — | +7.2% | 4/10 | post-print drift if in-line, quality tilt helps |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $12.90 | — | +9.8% | 4/10 | convergence toward composite fair value continues |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $13.15 | — | +11.9% | 3/10 | nears deterministic endpoint, sentiment caps upside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $13.33 (+13.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $11.75 |
| Composite fair value | $12.06 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $12.38 |
| DCF fair value | $18.34 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $6.53 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $9.25 |
| Value net score | -6 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +33 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 45.6% 3m 52.4% 6m 49.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.30 3m -0.07 5m 0.31 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 8.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | DV-20260803-170846-ed32 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DV-20260803-180133-d71f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DV-20260803-180133-d71f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DV-20260803-180133-d71f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DV-20260803-180133-d71f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | DV-20260803-170846-ed32 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | DV-20260803-170846-ed32 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $11.75 | $13.15 | +11.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.