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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 3, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 15 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +12 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 33 · Value -6 · Sentiment -16 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $10.45 vs $11.76 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc.

DV NYSE
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
New York, NY 10013, United States doubleverify.com Updated Aug 3, 5:08pm
Price
$11.76
Market Cap
$1.8B
Employees
1,231
Beta
0.96
Avg Volume
2,977,033
CEO
Mr. Mark S. Zagorski

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. operates as a technology company that provides digital media measurement, data, and analytics solutions globally. Its primary function is to ensure the effectiveness and integrity of digital advertising campaigns. The company offers comprehensive solutions that enable advertisers to improve their return on digital media investments by ensuring that ads are properly displayed, viewable by intended audiences, and free from fraud. DoubleVerify's platform is trusted across multiple sectors including media, retail, and technology, enhancing transparency and accountability in advertising processes. The company plays a significant role in the digital advertising ecosystem by helping brands and agencies achieve greater clarity on the performance of their ad campaigns. With the increasing complexity and fragmentation of the digital media landscape, DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. provides essential tools for managing advertising quality, proving indispensable for companies looking to optimize their digital marketing efforts and secure better engagement outcomes. Headquartered in New York, DoubleVerify has established itself as a market leader in protecting brand reputation and maximizing the impact of digital advertising spend.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 5:20pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$11.76
as of Aug 3, 5:24pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
+0.51 (+4.49%)
Day Range
$11.40 – $11.97
52-Week Range
$7.64 – $16.82
50-Day MA
$10.76
200-Day MA
$10.58
Volume
1,706,734.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 155,929,000.00
Float 121,905,813.00
Free Float 78.2%
Normal free float — 78.2% of shares trade freely, ~21.8% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:34pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:34pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 5:17pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
39.18
Stock Price: $11.76
EPS (Diluted): 0.30
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.73
Stock Price: $11.76
Total Equity: $1.13B
Shares: 166,683,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.18
Market Cap: $1.80B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $259.04M
EBITDA: $135.78M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.7B
Market Cap: $1.80B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $259.04M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
82.2%
Gross Profit: $614.79M
Revenue: $748.29M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
10.6%
Operating Income: $79.20M
Revenue: $748.29M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
6.8%
Net Income: $50.65M
Revenue: $748.29M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
4.5%
Net Income: $50.65M
Total Equity: $1.13B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
5.6%
Operating Income: $79.20M
Tax Rate: 38.8%
Equity: $1.13B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $259.04M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
4.27
Current Assets: $519.33M
Current Liabilities: $121.56M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $1.13B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$4.49
Revenue: $748.29M
Shares: 166,683,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$6.79
Total Equity: $1.13B
Shares: 166,683,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.04
Operating CF: $211.18M
CapEx: -$38.53M
Shares: 166,683,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $11.76
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $50.65M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 5:17pm
Compares DV against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:34pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $332.7M $452.4M $572.5M $656.8M $748.3M
Cost of Revenue $54.4M $77.9M $106.6M $116.5M $133.5M
Gross Profit $278.4M $374.6M $465.9M $540.3M $614.8M
Operating Expenses $251.7M $315.5M $380.2M $457.9M $535.6M
Operating Income $26.7M $59.0M $85.7M $82.4M $79.2M
Net Income $29.3M $43.3M $71.5M $56.2M $50.7M
EBITDA $57.0M $93.4M $126.6M $127.6M $135.8M
EPS $0.20 $0.26 $0.43 $0.33 $0.31
EPS (Diluted) $0.18 $0.25 $0.41 $0.32 $0.30
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $221.6M $267.8M $310.1M $292.8M $259.0M
Total Current Assets $367.8M $445.1M $533.0M $559.1M $519.3M
Total Assets $892.2M $1.0B $1.2B $1.3B $1.4B
Current Liabilities $57.0M $68.9M $83.9M $103.5M $121.6M
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $93.1M $160.2M $169.1M $192.8M $222.8M
Total Equity $799.1M $876.9M $1.1B $1.1B $1.1B
Retained Earnings $84.2M $127.5M $199.0M $255.2M $305.9M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:34pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $82.7M $94.9M $119.7M $159.7M $211.2M
Capital Expenditure -$9.4M -$40.0M -$17.0M -$27.1M -$38.5M
Free Cash Flow $73.4M $54.9M $102.7M $132.5M $172.7M
Acquisitions (net) -$149.2M -$67.2M -$82.6M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$22.0M
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$1.8M -$10.2M -$4.6M -$128.0M -$132.3M
Net Change in Cash $188.3M $46.2M $42.3M -$16.5M -$33.7M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:34pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +36.0% +26.6% +14.7% +13.9%
Gross Profit Growth +34.6% +24.4% +16.0% +13.8%
Operating Income Growth +121.2% +45.2% -3.9% -3.9%
Net Income Growth +47.6% +65.2% -21.3% -9.9%
EBITDA Growth +63.9% +35.6% +0.8% +6.4%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:49
-0.7 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 45% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 70%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($11.76)
Bull — recovery +17% 9.2% $6.46 -45%
Base — stabilizes +11% 8.0% $4.81 -59%
Bear — keeps slipping +6% 6.8% $3.51 -70%
Stress — last quarter repeats +11% 5.7% $3.57 -70%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-30) — growth stays at 11.2% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.74). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +5.8% · operating income +90.3% · net income +73.8% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 30, 2025 (revenue +11.2%, operating income -18.0% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for DV — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 17:33:59
Verdict Fairly valued near $11.76 with asymmetric downside — fair value $11-13, no margin of safety, wait for Q2'26 organic growth disclosure before adding.

The raw numbers tell a more nuanced story than either the "slight upside" synthesis or the "market headwinds" doom call. Revenue is still growing — TTM through Q1'26 runs ~$764M vs ~$656.8M in 2024, roughly +16%, and the Q1'26 print of $180.8M is +9.5% YoY against a $165.1M comp. But earnings are the tell: NI has gone from $71.5M (2023) → $56.2M (2024) → $50.7M (2025), a 29% decline over two years while revenue grew 31%. Operating margin has compressed from 15.0% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2025, and Q1'26's 3.5% net margin (vs 1.4% prior-year Q1, so directionally better) still shows the business is spending aggressively — likely on the Rockerbox/Scibids acquisitions and sales capacity — without proportional operating leverage. That is not a "mature earner"; that's a scaled growth company burning margin to defend share.

The valuation math is not screaming cheap. At $11.76 and ~$172M FCF, that's a 9.6% FCF yield on a ~$1.54B EV (market cap $1.80B less $259M cash, no debt) — cheap for software, but FCF benefits from stock-based comp addback that ROE of 4.5% and ROIC of 5.6% confirm is real dilution economics. P/E of 39x on declining earnings is not a bargain; EV/EBITDA of 12x is defensible only if margins stabilize. The insider activity — all option exercises and F-InKind (tax withholding) with zero open-market buys — is neutral-to-mildly-negative; nobody is stepping up at $11.76 despite the stock being 30% off highs. That's information.

The prior models contradict each other sharply and I lean toward partial dissent from all of them. The Market Forces "deteriorating business, unsustainable unit economics, existential disruption" call is overwrought — 82% gross margins, $172M FCF, no debt, and 14%+ revenue growth is not existential distress; it's a growth-to-GARP transition. The Valuation Synthesis's $12.38 fair value is suspiciously close to spot and reads like the composite is anchoring to price rather than deriving from it. The Narrative layer's "fundamentals-anchored, no cult premium" read is the most honest — this is a math problem, not a story problem. The Pre-Flight framing of "market pricing deceleration into mid-teens" is roughly right, but underweights that the real question isn't top-line — it's whether operating margins recover to the 15%+ zone or whether 10% is the new normal as IAS, Adobe/AI-native verification, and walled-garden in-housing compress pricing.

A contrarian bull would note: FCF CAGR of 29.6% vs revenue CAGR of 14.3% means cash generation is actually accelerating faster than the P&L suggests — the earnings decline is partly amortization of acquired intangibles and SBC weight, not cash burn. Rockerbox and Scibids expand DV beyond verification into performance measurement and AI-driven bidding, which is exactly the pivot needed if pure verification commoditizes. At 9x EV/FCF the downside is bounded assuming FCF holds. A contrarian bear would counter: Q1'26 net margin of 3.5% on the seasonally weakest quarter, combined with the Q4→Q1 sequential drop from $205.6M to $180.8M (normal seasonality but the deceleration in YoY growth from ~24% in Q1'25 to ~9.5% in Q1'26 is not) suggests the growth algorithm is breaking. If 2026 full-year comes in at $820M with 8% operating margin, you're looking at ~$65M op income and the multiple has to compress further. The data is also stale on one key axis: no visibility on 2026 guidance revisions or the impact of the Google cookie reversal on demand.

I dissent modestly from the "slight upside" synthesis and land closer to fairly valued with asymmetric downside if margins don't stabilize by 2H'26. Fair value is $11-13 based on 10x EV/FCF applied to a haircut $155M normalized FCF plus cash — essentially where it trades. The $12.38 signal-adjusted number is coincidentally right but for wrong reasons; there is no re-rating catalyst visible, insiders aren't buying, growth is decelerating, and the acquisition-driven revenue is masking organic softness. This is a name to own only if you have conviction that (a) Scibids/Rockerbox integration lifts 2027 margins back to 15%+, and (b) cookie-deprecation fears are overstated. Neither is obvious from this data. Wait for the Q2'26 print and specifically the organic-vs-acquired revenue split before committing.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 17:34:15
Verdict Fairly valued around $11.76 — cash flow support limits downside, but margin erosion and declining earnings cap upside; fair value is roughly $11-$13 unless operating leverage returns.

What stands out first is that DoubleVerify is still growing, but the quality of that growth is getting worse. Revenue rose from $656.8M in 2024 to $748.3M in 2025, up 13.9%, and the latest quarter at $180.8M was up 9.5% from $165.1M a year earlier. That is not broken. But profits are clearly not scaling with sales: operating income fell from $85.7M in 2023 to $82.4M in 2024 and then to $79.2M in 2025 despite revenue climbing 31% over that span. Net income has done the same, dropping from $71.5M in 2023 to $56.2M in 2024 and $50.7M in 2025. The recent quarterly margin pattern is especially weak for a business with 82% gross margins: 1.4%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 14.3%, then back to 3.5%. When a software-like business keeps adding revenue but cannot convert that into better operating leverage, I do not want to pay a premium earnings multiple for it.

The second thing the numbers say is that GAAP earnings understate economic output, but not enough to make the stock obviously cheap. On 2025 figures, $211.2M of operating cash flow and $172.7M of free cash flow versus just $50.7M of net income is a huge gap. Backing out the $259M cash pile from the $1.80B market cap implies about $1.54B enterprise value, so the stock trades around 8.9x trailing FCF and 2.1x revenue ex-cash. That is not expensive if the cash flow is durable. But you have to reconcile that with a 39x P/E, 4.5% ROE, and only 5.6% ROIC. The market is effectively saying this is a decent cash generator but not a great compounder, and I think that is right. The “mature earner” label fits better than the more optimistic software framing because this looks like a business with strong gross economics but rising cost to defend growth.

The balance sheet is a real support under the stock. No debt and $259M of cash give management room to absorb a cyclical ad market or make acquisitions, and a current ratio above 4x means no financial stress. That matters because at $11.76 the equity value is only about 10.4x trailing FCF if you ignore net cash, which is already a compressed multiple for a business still delivering high-single to low-teens top-line growth. So I do not see a disaster. I see a company that has likely been de-rated correctly from a growth-stock valuation into a cash-yield story. If revenues can only grow around 10%-14% while net margins sit in the mid-single digits, fair value is not much above today’s price. I would not chase a “slight upside” call when the operating trend is plainly worse than the cash flow trend.

The best case against my caution is straightforward: this stock may simply be misread if free cash flow is the right earnings measure. A debt-free business with $172.7M of FCF on a $1.80B market cap, 82.2% gross margins, and annual revenue growth from $332.7M in 2021 to $748.3M in 2025 has built a real franchise. Even the latest quarter’s 9.5% growth is respectable against a tougher base, and Q1 seasonality may flatter or depress margins less than full-year figures suggest. If the FCF conversion remains anywhere near 23% of revenue, then the stock is already priced like a no-growth business when it is still growing double digits. That is the smartest bull argument, and it is stronger than the rule-based and narrative layers imply. I weigh it less heavily because the deterioration in operating income over three consecutive annual periods tells me some of that cash generation may reflect working-capital dynamics or stock-comp-heavy accounting rather than clean underlying margin strength.

What would change my mind is simple. If the next few quarters show revenue re-accelerating back above 12%-15% year over year while operating margin moves back toward 12%-13% instead of living in the low-to-mid single digits, then the stock is too cheap here and deserves a mid-teens price again. Conversely, if 2026 revenue growth slips into single digits and full-year net income again trails the prior year despite the cash hoard and scale, then even 2.6x sales is not attractive and the stock should trade closer to 8x-9x FCF, roughly $10 or below. Right now the market is pricing the business about right: solid franchise, weak incremental economics.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 17:34:53
Verdict Fairly valued near $11.75–12.40; 10% FCF yield cushions downside but earnings decay caps upside without margin proof

The raw numbers describe a high-gross-margin verification franchise whose top line is still expanding but whose economic engine is clearly downshifting. Revenue climbed from $332.7M in 2021 to $748.3M in 2025, yet the annual increments have compressed from +36% to +14.7% to +13.9%; the latest quarter (Q1 2026 at $180.8M) is only +9.5% versus the year-ago period, confirming the deceleration is ongoing. More troubling is the profit line: operating income has slipped three straight years ($85.7M → $82.4M → $79.2M) and net income has fallen from a 2023 peak of $71.5M to $50.7M, producing a –15.8% earnings CAGR even as free cash flow reached $172.7M (23% FCF margin) on only $38.5M of capex. The 82% gross margin remains pristine and the balance sheet is fortress-like ($259M cash, zero debt), but ROE of 4.5% and ROIC of 5.6% reveal a business that is no longer compounding capital at attractive rates. At $11.76 the stock trades at 39× trailing earnings—expensive for a shrinking bottom line—yet only 2.2× EV/revenue and roughly 9× EV/FCF, so the market is already discounting the growth fade while still paying up for the residual cash generation.

What stands out is the widening gap between cash conversion and reported profitability. Operating cash flow of $211M dwarfs net income, implying heavy non-cash charges or working-capital tailwinds that may not be permanent; seasonal Q4 spikes (margins 12–14%) mask thin single-digit margins in the other three quarters. The pre-flight claim of “20%+ CAGR” is already stale—trailing growth is mid-teens and heading lower—while the rule-based “mature earner” label fits the cash-flow profile but understates the margin erosion. Insider activity is pure option mechanics and tax withholds, offering no signal. In short, DoubleVerify is a still-growing cash machine whose unit economics and competitive moat are quietly fraying under cookie deprecation and platform in-housing pressure.

The strongest contrary case is that a debt-free compounder printing a 9.6% FCF yield at 12× EV/EBITDA with 82% gross margins cannot stay this cheap if mid-teens revenue growth simply stabilizes. A bull would note that the $1.8B market cap is only modestly above the $1.13B book value, that FCF has compounded at nearly 30%, and that any stabilization in operating margin back toward the 2023 level of 15% would make the current 39× P/E look absurdly low on forward earnings. That argument has force on pure cash-flow math; I weigh it less heavily because the three-year decline in both operating and net income is not a one-period aberration—it is the central trend—and because ROIC below 6% means every incremental dollar of growth is currently destroying rather than creating value. The market’s 30% drawdown from the $16.82 high already embeds a lot of that optimism; further multiple expansion requires evidence the profit slide has stopped.

I would reverse to a clear buy if the next two quarters show revenue re-accelerating above 15% year-over-year while operating margin expands back above 12%, or if management demonstrates that the FCF-to-NI gap is structural rather than cyclical. Conversely, a print of high-single-digit revenue growth paired with another year of lower operating income would confirm the derating is incomplete and push the stock toward single-digit EV/FCF territory.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 5.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 18:09:18
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip into the $9s 7/10
Good business trading at a fair price with no tape support - this is a watchlist name, not a buy at $11.76.
The cruxWhether operating margin compression (15% to 10.6%) is a temporary investment phase or a structural signal that ad-verification is commoditizing - that single question determines if the DCF's $18 or the EPV's $5 is right.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from DV's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+33
Strong
edge √Σ 121 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 7/10

DoubleVerify is a mature, self-funding software business: revenue compounded from $332.7M (2021) to $748.3M (2025), gross margins sit consistently in the 82-84% band, and FCF has stepped up cleanly to $172.7M. The balance sheet is essentially unlevered with $259M net cash and an Altman Z of 6.27; OCF/NI of 2.74x, negative accruals (-7% of assets), and a Beneish M of -3.04 all point to genuine, cash-backed earnings with no mechanical red flags. Dilution is contained: diluted share count actually declined from 175.1M to 166.7M in 2025, and buybacks have offset ~87% of SBC. That said, the operating trajectory is not as clean as the top line suggests. Operating margin peaked at 15% in 2023 and has fallen to 10.6% in 2025 even as revenue grew 14% — meaning opex is scaling faster than revenue. Net income actually declined from $71.5M (2023) to $50.7M (2025) despite $176M more revenue. SBC at 13.9% of revenue is heavy for a company already this large and is doing real economic work behind the GAAP numbers. Insider tape shows only option exercises and tax-withholding, no open-market buys or sells — neutral signal. This is a solidly healthy business with no survival questions, but the deceleration in operating leverage keeps it out of the top tier.

Strengths 4
m70
Fortress balance sheet, self-funding
$259M net cash, zero debt drag, Altman Z 6.27, and $172.7M FCF — no external capital needed and no survival math to worry about.
m65
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI of 2.74x, accruals -7% of assets, Beneish M -3.04. Reported profits are backed by more cash than they claim, not less.
m55
Share count actually shrank in 2025
Diluted shares fell from 175.1M to 166.7M; buybacks absorbed ~87% of SBC. Per-share value is being defended, not eroded.
m50
Durable gross margin profile
GM stable at 81-84% across 5 years while revenue more than doubled — signals real product pricing power in ad verification.
Concerns 4
m55
Operating margin compression
OpM peaked at 15% in 2023, fell to 12.5% in 2024, then to 10.6% in 2025. Opex is outrunning revenue growth — negative operating leverage in a supposedly scalable SaaS model.
m50
Net income going backwards
Net income declined from $71.5M (2023) to $50.7M (2025) despite revenue growing $176M over the same span. Growth is not translating to bottom-line earnings.
m40
Heavy SBC relative to scale
SBC at 13.9% of revenue (~$104M) is elevated for a $748M-revenue company and materially closes the gap between GAAP and true economic profit, even with buybacks offsetting share count.
m20
No insider conviction signal
Recent tape is entirely option exercises and tax-withholding — no open-market buys from management despite the operating slippage.
This is a genuinely good business — 82% gross margins, real cash conversion, zero balance-sheet risk, and management is actually defending the share count, which puts it ahead of most SaaS-adjacent peers. But I do not love what I see under the hood: revenue is compounding nicely while operating margin and absolute net income are both going the wrong direction. Either the ad-verification market is getting more competitive, they are over-investing, or acquisition integration is dragging — I cannot tell from this data alone. Clean, safe, cash-generative — but the operating leverage story that a business like this is supposed to deliver has quietly broken in the last two years. Solid, not elite.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • What is driving the opex growth outpacing revenue in 2024-2025 — sales headcount, R&D, or one-time items?
  • Customer concentration disclosure in the 10-K — how exposed is DV to a handful of large platforms/agencies?
  • Competitive positioning vs Integral Ad Science and in-platform verification from Google/Meta/TikTok
  • Organic vs acquired revenue growth — has M&A (e.g. Scibids) inflated the top line while dragging margins?
  • Nature and terms of the 2025 buyback that shrank share count — was it opportunistic or programmatic?
Valuation / Mispricing
-6
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 62 · risk √Σ 68 · conf 6/10
price $11.76 vs composite deserved ~$12.06 (signal-adj $12.38) - roughly 3-5% upside, inside the noise band, essentially fair. attractive below $9.25

The e2e composite fair value is $12.06 and the signal-adjusted FV is $12.38 against a $11.76 price - a 3-5% gap that is noise, not opportunity. The three methods disagree meaningfully: DCF says $18.34, EPV floor says $5.02, and anchored PE says $6.53. That spread tells you the answer depends entirely on whether you believe the growth-compounder narrative or the mature-infrastructure-vendor narrative; the composite splitting the difference near spot is the honest read.

Cheap signals 3
m45
Composite FV slightly above price
Composite $12.06 and signal-adjusted $12.38 vs $11.76 gives a 3-5% gap - real but not a margin of safety.
m35
DCF suggests hidden upside if growth holds
DCF pegs $18.34 (~56% upside) if the compounder thesis plays out - but this is the outlier method and should not be taken at face value given margin slippage.
m25
Fortress balance sheet supports deserved value
Zero balance-sheet risk and clean FCF conversion justify anchoring closer to the DCF than to the EPV floor - keeps deserved value in the low-to-mid teens rather than single digits.
Rich / priced-in 2
m55
Earnings-power methods say the price is already generous
EPV floor $5.02 and anchored PE $6.53 both sit far below the $11.76 price - the market is already paying for future growth, not current earnings power.
m40
Operating margin trend undermines the growth premium
Revenue compounding but operating margin and net income sliding means the DCF's growth assumptions may be overstated - lowers deserved value versus the composite.
This is a fair price for a good business with a real question mark on margins. The composite lands within 5% of spot, and the method spread ($5 to $18) tells me nobody actually knows what this is worth - which is itself a reason not to reach. I would want the stock in the $9s before I got interested, because that gives me a real cushion against the earnings-power methods being right about the margin slide. At $11.76, I do nothing.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether the operating margin slide is cyclical (ad-market weakness) or structural (AI/consolidation pressure) - changes DCF terminal assumptions materially
  • SBC run-rate vs buyback pace - whether share count discipline holds
  • Segment-level growth: activation vs measurement mix and any customer concentration disclosures
  • Forward revenue guide vs the growth rate embedded in the $18 DCF
General Sentiment
-16
Balanced
tail √Σ 30 · head √Σ 46 · conf 5/10

DoubleVerify sits in a rare sentiment vacuum: narrative intensity is minimal, cult coefficient low, and the story is a mundane 'ad-verification plumbing' pitch that neither excites nor terrifies the tape. With a beta of 0.96 and a communication-services / adtech tag, it should track the market roughly one-for-one, and the market itself is only mildly constructive (regime score +22, VIX 16, S&P a hair off highs). Nothing in the news flow is pushing this name hard - the only recent item is a valuation-math piece flagging it as ~14% below fair value, which is a mild sentiment positive but hardly a catalyst.

Tailwinds 2
m22
Neutral-to-mild-risk-on tape
Regime is a soft tailwind (+22) with VIX at 16. For a 0.96-beta name with no strong idiosyncratic story, the tape offers a gentle lift rather than a real push.
m20
Valuation-based coverage tone turning constructive
Recent coverage framing DV as materially below fair value after a bounce is a mild positive sentiment nudge - the kind that puts a soft floor under a quiet name.
Headwinds 3
m30
Adtech / third-party-measurement narrative fatigue
The active bear story (AI automation eating verification, first-party data shift, ad-buyer consolidation) is a slow structural de-rating theme that hangs over the whole cohort - not acute, but chronic.
m25
No narrative to bid it up
Archetype is steady-compounder with minimal intensity and low cult. In a tape that rewards story stocks (AI, crypto, momentum), a boring recurring-revenue adtech name gets ignored and drifts.
m25
Macro rate / market-PE overhang
10y at 4.68% and market PE near 27 is a broad drag on all equities; a mid-cap adtech with no growth narrative to defend a premium multiple absorbs this crosswind rather than shrugging it off.
Net-net this is a Balanced read leaning very slightly negative. There is no acute pressure - the tape is fine, the news is quiet, and analyst tone is not hostile - but there is also nothing bidding this name up. The chronic bear narrative around third-party measurement being commoditized is the meaningful weight; the mild macro drag and absence of any cult following mean DV will sit and drift with the tape rather than command it. If I had to lean, it is a mild headwind because a story-less stock in a story-driven market is quietly de-rating even when nothing bad is happening.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any acceleration or fresh disruption headline in AI-driven ad verification that could revive the bear narrative
  • Sell-side target revisions or downgrades after the next print - the current tone is quiet and could tip either way
  • Sector rotation into or out of adtech / small-mid cap communication services
  • VIX breakout above 20 which would disproportionately hit lower-liquidity names like DV
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Higher +11.9% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, DV was $11.75. We expect it to be $13.15 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $9.25. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$11.75
Our estimate for Feb 2027$13.15+11.9%
Great value below$9.25
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06