Made on
Jul 27, 2026
Price at call
$45.04
6-month call
Bull +14.3%
Target by Jan 2027
$51.50
Great value below
$40.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+14.3% to $51.50
Predicted High
$51.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$44.20
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 27, 2026 12:58 am
Bull
DVN trends higher to
$51.50
(+14.3% from $45.04)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisDVN trades below composite fair value $54.65 with a modest quality profile and negative sentiment offsetting deep value pull. Near-term regime jitters and 'sunset industry' narrative cap upside, but strong 6mo momentum and cash-flow story support gradual grind toward mid-50s over the window.
Invalidated ifBreak below $42 on rising volume or a sustained crude collapse would invalidate the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $45.04 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 27, 2026 | — | $45.04 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 10, 2026 | $41.59–$48.49 typical range · internal point $44.60 | — | ±7.7% | 6/10 | Risk-off tape and negative sentiment weigh near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $42.98 on Aug 7, 2026 = -4.6% vs the call (predicted -1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 27, 2026 | $40.04–$50.04 typical range · internal point $44.20 | — | ±11.1% | 5/10 | Sentiment drag persists, low beta cushions decline |
| 2 months | Sep 27, 2026 | $45.80 | — | +1.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, value buyers step in |
| 3 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $47.50 | — | +5.5% | 5/10 | Earnings catalyst and cash-flow narrative reassert |
| 4 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $49.00 | — | +8.8% | 4/10 | Gap to fair value narrows as regime stabilizes |
| 5 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $50.20 | — | +11.5% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing favors underowned energy value |
| 6 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $51.50 | — | +14.3% | 3/10 | Grind toward composite fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $49.78 (+10.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $45.04 |
| Composite fair value | $54.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $55.42 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $40.97 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $40.00 |
| Value net score | +1 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +39 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.0% 3m 38.4% 6m 35.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.57 3m -1.19 5m -1.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | DVN-20260727-000446-6298 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DVN-20260727-004658-b197 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DVN-20260727-004658-b197 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DVN-20260727-004658-b197 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DVN-20260727-004658-b197 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | DVN-20260727-000446-6298 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | DVN-20260727-000446-6298 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $45.04 | $51.50 | +14.3% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.