The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Class A Common Stock
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Made on
Aug 24, 2026
Price at call
$103.39
6-month call
Bear -17.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$85.00
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-17.8% to $85.00
Predicted High
$106.80
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$85.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-17.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 24, 2026 1:06 pm
Bear
EL trends lower to
$85.00
(-17.8% from $103.39)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisEL is deeply overvalued vs composite fair value near $33, but a fragile turnaround narrative and Q4 beat momentum in a risk-on tape can extend the bounce short-term before value gravity reasserts. Expect a modest ride higher into fall, then fade as rate pressure and forensic concerns weigh through winter.
Invalidated ifA break above $115 on strong volume or sustained close below $85 before m3 would falsify the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $103.39 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 24, 2026 | — | $103.39 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 7, 2026 | $93.01–$113.77 typical range · internal point $105.20 | — | ±10.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and beat momentum extend near-term drift up |
| What actually happened: closed $103.86 on Sep 4, 2026 = +0.5% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±10.0%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 24, 2026 | $88.35–$118.43 typical range · internal point $106.80 | — | ±14.5% | 5/10 | Fallen-angel narrative still bid, no catalyst against it |
| 2 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $102.50 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | Momentum fades as valuation pushback resumes |
| 3 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $97.00 | — | -6.2% | 5/10 | Value gravity engages, forensic concerns weigh |
| 4 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $92.00 | — | -11.0% | 4/10 | Year-end derisking, quality lens negatives resurface |
| 5 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $88.50 | — | -14.4% | 4/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline continues |
| 6 months | Feb 24, 2027 | $85.00 | — | -17.8% | 4/10 | Convergence partway toward fair value anchor near $33 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $76.67 (-25.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Degraded
[critical] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $103.39 |
| Composite fair value | $32.70 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $24.98 |
| DCF fair value | $36.29 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $55.00 |
| Value net score | -74 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -14 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 58.7% 3m 50.4% 6m 51.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.14 3m 1.02 5m 1.38 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -10.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | EL-20260824-040001-b3e0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-EL-20260824-045431-71ed |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-EL-20260824-045431-71ed |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-EL-20260824-045431-71ed |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-EL-20260824-045431-71ed |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | EL-20260824-040001-b3e0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | EL-20260824-040001-b3e0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $103.39 | $85.00 | -17.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.