Made on
Aug 24, 2026
Price at call
$766.66
6-month call
Neutral -3.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$738.00
Great value below
$620.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.7% to $738.00
Predicted High
$782.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$738.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 24, 2026 1:09 pm
Neutral
EME trends range-bound to
$738.00
(-3.7% from $766.66)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisEME trades well above composite fair value near $551 but momentum, quality, and risk-on tape support a slow drift rather than a hard mean-revert. Expect mild near-term lift from sentiment, then gradual fade toward the deterministic $740 endpoint as valuation gravity asserts.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $820 on volume or below $700 would invalidate the drift-lower thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $766.66 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 24, 2026 | — | $766.66 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 7, 2026 | $686.86–$846.46 typical range · internal point $775.00 | — | ±10.4% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and cheap-on-DCF narrative give near-term lift |
| What actually happened: closed $754.16 on Sep 4, 2026 = -1.6% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±10.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 24, 2026 | $651.02–$882.30 typical range · internal point $782.00 | — | ±15.1% | 5/10 | Momentum and quality bid persist absent catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $772.00 | — | +0.7% | 4/10 | Sentiment fades, high beta amplifies any tape wobble |
| 3 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $758.00 | — | -1.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $750.00 | — | -2.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, no earnings catalyst to defend premium |
| 5 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $745.00 | — | -2.8% | 3/10 | Q4 print approaches, multiple compression continues |
| 6 months | Feb 24, 2027 | $738.00 | — | -3.7% | 3/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline as premium erodes |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $740.52 (-3.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $766.66 |
| Composite fair value | $551.34 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $658.69 |
| DCF fair value | $550.96 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $881.27 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $620.00 |
| Value net score | -76 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +67 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 71.9% 3m 52.2% 6m 45.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.22 3m 2.07 5m 1.86 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | EME-20260824-043002-4e84 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-EME-20260824-053240-f6ad |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-EME-20260824-053240-f6ad |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-EME-20260824-053240-f6ad |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-EME-20260824-053240-f6ad |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | EME-20260824-043002-4e84 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | EME-20260824-043002-4e84 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $766.66 | $738.00 | -3.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.