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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-13): Designation Low · Gem Score -19 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 67 · Value -76 · Sentiment 36 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $572.16 vs $776.62 at analysis
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EMCOR Group, Inc.
EME NYSEEMCOR Group, Inc. is a diversified mechanical and electrical construction and facilities services company headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut. It focuses on designing, installing, operating, and maintaining complex building and industrial systems, including electrical, mechanical, lighting, air conditioning, heating, security, fire protection, and power generation infrastructure. EMCOR Group, Inc. operates through major service divisions such as EMCOR Construction Services, EMCOR Building Services, and EMCOR Industrial Services, each specializing in project-based construction, ongoing facilities management, and industrial and energy infrastructure support. The company serves commercial, industrial, institutional, utility, and government clients across the United States and the United Kingdom, with a strong presence in non-residential construction and services. In the broader financial market, EMCOR Group, Inc. functions as a leading provider of critical infrastructure solutions, offering both large-scale installation projects and recurring maintenance contracts that support operational reliability and resilience for a wide range of organizations.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 28.19
Total Equity: $3.67B
Shares: 45,145,767
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.11B
EBITDA: $1.78B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.11B
Revenue: $16.99B
Revenue: $16.99B
Revenue: $16.99B
Total Equity: $3.67B
Tax Rate: 26.1%
Equity: $3.67B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.11B
Current Liabilities: $4.86B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $3.67B
Shares: 45,145,767
Shares: 45,145,767
CapEx: -$112.75M
Shares: 45,145,767
Stock Price: $776.62
Net Income: $1.27B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:32am (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.9B | $11.1B | $12.6B | $14.6B | $17.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $8.4B | $9.5B | $10.5B | $11.8B | $13.7B |
| Gross Profit | $1.5B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.8B | $3.3B |
| Operating Expenses | $970.9M | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Operating Income | $530.8M | $564.9M | $875.8M | $1.3B | $1.7B |
| Net Income | $383.5M | $406.1M | $633.0M | $1.0B | $1.3B |
| EBITDA | $579.1M | $612.2M | $927.6M | $1.4B | $1.8B |
| EPS | $7.09 | $8.13 | $13.37 | $21.61 | $28.30 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $7.06 | $8.10 | $13.31 | $21.52 | $28.19 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 4:30am (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $821.3M | $456.4M | $789.8M | $1.3B | $1.1B |
| Total Current Assets | $3.4B | $3.5B | $4.4B | $5.4B | $5.9B |
| Total Assets | $5.4B | $5.5B | $6.6B | $7.7B | $9.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.4B | $2.8B | $3.5B | $4.2B | $4.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $3.2B | $3.6B | $4.1B | $4.8B | $5.6B |
| Total Equity | $2.3B | $2.0B | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.7B |
| Retained Earnings | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $4.8B | $6.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:32am (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $318.8M | $497.9M | $899.7M | $1.4B | $1.3B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$36.2M | -$49.3M | -$78.4M | -$75.0M | -$112.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | $282.6M | $448.6M | $821.3M | $1.3B | $1.2B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$118.2M | -$98.7M | -$96.5M | -$228.2M | -$1.0B |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$13.9M | -$13.9M | -$246.2M | $0 | $0 |
| Dividends Paid | -$28.2M | -$27.2M | -$32.7M | -$43.4M | -$45.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$195.5M | -$660.6M | -$127.7M | -$489.8M | -$586.3M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$81.0M | -$365.5M | $332.7M | $550.6M | -$228.4M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:32am (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +11.8% | +13.6% | +15.8% | +16.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +6.8% | +30.3% | +32.3% | +18.7% |
| Operating Income Growth | +6.4% | +55.0% | +53.6% | +27.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +5.9% | +55.9% | +59.1% | +26.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +5.7% | +51.5% | +51.1% | +27.1% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 4:31am (20d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-16 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-14 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-15 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-15 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-17 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025-01-16 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-10-15 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-15 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-15 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-12 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-13 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2023-07-19 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2023-04-14 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2023-01-13 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-17 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-07-15 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2022-04-14 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2022-01-14 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2021-10-14 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-06 19:08A +1σ run of quarters pays -31%; a −1σ run costs 48%. Ratio -0.6:1 (μ 17.4%, σ 3.8% floored by sector, 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 0.1 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($776.62) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +33% | 9.2% | $799.34 | +3% |
| Base — stabilizes | +22% | 8.0% | $517.27 | -33% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +11% | 6.8% | $324.17 | -58% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +16% | 7.4% | $410.95 | -47% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +21% | 8.5% | $536.06 | -31% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +14% | 8.0% | $402.74 | -48% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-24 05:41The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw trajectory here is genuinely impressive and I want to steelman it before tearing at it. Revenue went from $9.9B (2021) to a run-rate above $19B (annualizing the last two quarters at $5.15B and $4.63B gets you $19.5B+), while net income quadrupled from $383M to a run-rate near $1.5B. Net margins expanded from ~3.9% to 7.8% in Q2 2026 — that's not cyclical noise, that's mix shift toward higher-value mechanical/electrical work tied to data centers and semiconductor fabs. ROIC of 49% and ROE of 35% with zero net debt and $1.11B cash is exceptional capital efficiency for a construction-services roll-up. FCF of $1.19B on $34B market cap is a 3.5% yield — not cheap, not egregious.
That said, the synthesis's -15% overvaluation call ($659 signal-adjusted vs $776) understates the risk asymmetry, and the thesis engine's -9 score feels closer to right. Here's the contrarian read the models are dancing around but not landing: EMCOR at 27.5x earnings and 2.06x sales is being priced as a secular compounder, but the Q1 2026 print already flashed a warning — margin dropped to 6.6% from 9.6% the prior quarter, and Q3 2025 was 6.9%. The 7.8% Q2 print looks like the outlier, not the trend. If normalized margins are actually 6.5-7% rather than 8%+, forward earnings power is ~$1.35B, not $1.5B+, which pushes the multiple toward 25x on a business whose historical multiple range was 15-20x. The market is extrapolating the peak quarter.
Where I disagree with the prior work: the "Neutral Market Forces" and "fair_value" tags are too soft given what the numbers show about deceleration. Recent revenue YoY of 16.6% is down from the 20%+ range earlier in the cycle, and the sequential pattern ($4.30B → $4.30B → $4.51B → $4.63B → $5.15B) is lumpy, not the smooth compounding a 27x multiple demands. The narrative layer correctly identifies this as "anchored" with moderate intensity, but I'd argue the anchor is slipping — the +18% premium to DCF is the market paying for a data center capex cycle that has a well-documented boom-bust cadence (2000, 2015-16, 2022). Hyperscaler capex guidance for 2026 is decelerating from 2025 growth rates. EMCOR's backlog conversion is real but it's a lagging indicator; the leading indicator is bid activity, which none of the data here captures. The insider sale of 950 shares in June is small in absolute terms but it's a sale into strength with no offsetting open-market buys — directionally consistent with "management thinks this is fully valued."
Where I'd push back on the bears: the roll-up thesis has actually delivered. Debt-to-equity of zero while generating 49% ROIC means M&A has been genuinely accretive, not financial engineering. And unlike pure construction contractors, the building services segment provides recurring maintenance revenue that dampens cyclicality. So a full-cycle multiple of 20x rather than the 15x contractor comp is defensible. That gets me to fair value of ~$610-650 on normalized $30-32 EPS, which is meaningfully below current price but not a short — this is a "wait for the disappointment quarter" setup, not a conviction sell. The models converging on $551-659 are directionally correct. I dissent from "fair_value" and lean toward mild overvaluation with a specific catalyst path: the first quarter where organic revenue growth prints below 10% or margins revert to 6.5% will compress the multiple 20-25% because the compounder narrative dies. Given Q1 2026 already showed the margin wobble, that quarter may be closer than consensus expects.
GPT Reading
EMCOR’s numbers are good enough to tempt you into treating it like a higher-quality industrial compounder, but the valuation still looks ahead of what the underlying economics usually justify. The operating performance has been genuinely exceptional: revenue rose from $9.90B in 2021 to $16.99B in 2025, a 14%-plus annualized climb, while net income more than tripled from $383.5M to $1.27B. That is not just a revenue story; operating margin expanded from 5.4% in 2021 to 10.1% in 2025, and net margin from 3.9% to 7.5%. Even the most recent run-rate is stronger still: over the last four quarters through 2026-06-30, EMCOR generated about $18.6B of revenue and $1.44B of net income, implying roughly 7.7% net margin. For an engineering and construction name, zero debt, $1.11B of cash, and $1.19B of free cash flow against just $112.8M of capex is unusually clean. This is a superb business in execution terms.
The issue is that the stock at $776.62 already capitalizes EMCOR as though these elevated margins and double-digit top-line growth are durable through the cycle. On 2025 figures, the market is paying 27.5x earnings, 19.0x EV/EBITDA, and about 2.0x sales for a contractor-like business, albeit a best-in-class one. Using the latest annual net income of $1.27B, the earnings yield is only 3.6%; even annualizing the last two quarters does not make it cheap. Price/book at 9.5x also tells you the market is not valuing EMCOR like a project business exposed to labor availability, bidding cycles, and customer capex pauses. To justify this setup, EMCOR likely needs to keep compounding EPS at a rate far above normal construction-services peers while defending 7%-8% net margins that are historically peak-like for the category. The quarterly sequence shows growth is still healthy — 2026-06 revenue of $5.15B was up nearly 20% versus $4.30B a year earlier, and net income rose 34% from $302.2M to $403.7M — but there is nothing in these figures that says the market is getting a bargain on merely “good” continuation.
What stands out most is the asymmetry between business quality and stock setup. EMCOR has earned a premium through real execution: ROE of 34.6% and ROIC of 49.4% are eye-catching, and unlike many premium industrial stories, this one is backed by cash rather than leverage. But some of that capital efficiency is a function of low tangible equity and strong working-capital characteristics, not evidence of an infinitely scalable moat. The current ratio is only 1.22, which is fine but reminds you this is still an operating business with contract timing and customer collections in the mix, not a software annuity. The company has transformed from a decent contractor into an elite operator, yet the stock now asks investors to pay as though transformation risk is gone and cyclicality has been repealed. I don’t buy that. My read is that fair value is lower unless EMCOR can show another year or two of 15%-plus revenue growth with margins holding near today’s level.
The strongest case against that skepticism is straightforward: maybe this is not a cyclical contractor in the old sense anymore. The evidence for that bull case is substantial. Revenue has not just grown; it has accelerated in dollar terms, from $3.70B in 2024-09 to $5.15B in 2026-06, while margins have remained consistently above 6% each quarter and often closer to 7%-10%. Free cash flow of $1.19B on $16.99B of sales is real, not adjusted. A debt-free balance sheet gives EMCOR room to keep consolidating a fragmented market, and if end-markets like data centers, healthcare, industrial electrification, and mission-critical service work stay strong, then historical peer multiples may simply be the wrong yardstick. On that view, paying a high-20s P/E for a company growing earnings 25%-plus with this balance sheet is not obviously excessive. I weigh that argument less heavily because construction-adjacent businesses almost always look structurally rerated near cyclical highs, and the multiple leaves little room for merely solid execution.
What would change my mind is not another quarter of strength by itself, but proof that today’s economics are repeatable at larger scale. If EMCOR can sustain quarterly revenue above $5B, keep net margin around 7.5%-8.0%, and convert that into annual free cash flow materially above $1.3B without balance-sheet stretch, then the premium deserves more respect. Conversely, if revenue growth slips toward high single digits or margins retreat back toward 5.5%-6.0%, the current valuation will look plainly too rich. I would also watch insider activity carefully: the recent 950-share sale is small in absolute terms, but at this price I would rather see meaningful open-market buying than routine awards and light selling. As it stands, I see a great company and an overextended stock.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a genuine operating transformation, not a one-quarter mirage. EMCOR took revenue from $9.9B in 2021 to $17.0B in 2025 while lifting operating income from $531M to $1.71B and net income from $384M to $1.27B—an earnings CAGR near 42% on a 16% revenue CAGR. Gross margin sits at 19.3%, operating margin at 10.1%, net at 7.5%; ROIC of 49% and ROE of 35% on a clean balance sheet (zero reported debt-to-equity, $1.11B cash, $1.19B FCF against only $113M capex) are elite for engineering and construction. The latest prints reinforce the run: Q2 2026 revenue of $5.15B and 7.8% net margin, with trailing four-quarter earnings already well above the $1.27B full-year 2025 figure. This is a scaled, cash-generative industrial services platform executing at a high level, with clear mix benefits from mission-critical MEP, facilities services, and data-center-adjacent work.
The valuation does not give the company the benefit of the doubt—it assumes the transformation is permanent and that high-teens top-line momentum largely persists. At $776.62 the stock trades 27.5x annual earnings, 2.1x sales, 19x EV/EBITDA, and roughly 9.5x book, for a free-cash-flow yield near 3.5%. Historical contractor multiples lived in the mid-teens P/E; the current premium is the market capitalizing both the margin step-up and a multi-year data-center/infrastructure supercycle. Quarterly revenue is still growing, but the secondary signal flags a decelerating trend, and at a $17B revenue base the law of large numbers is already biting. Implied growth embedded in 27x earnings for a construction-services business with cyclical end markets is simply higher than base rates support once the current boom normalizes.
The strongest case against an overvalued read is straightforward and data-backed: margins have expanded for four straight years, not one; FCF conversion is pristine; returns on capital are extraordinary; the company has no leverage; and the bull weights on structural data-center demand and durable margin gains are heavy for a reason. If mix continues to shift toward higher-recurring building services and EMCOR keeps compounding mid-teens revenue with 7–8% net margins, today’s multiple can be grown into rather than compressed. A smart opponent would also note that the valuation synthesis composite near $659 already incorporates some caution, and that sector-leader status plus acquisition capacity in a fragmented market can justify a quality premium over pure-play contractors. I weigh that evidence seriously—the quality is real—but still discount it because the price already capitalizes several more years of exceptional outcomes, insider activity has skewed to sales, and construction-cycle history is littered with “this time the margins stuck” stories that later mean-reverted.
What flips the verdict is concrete: sustained quarterly revenue growth re-accelerating above 15% with net margins holding 7.5%+ through a full year of softer non-res construction, or clear evidence that data-center and infrastructure backlog has extended visibility beyond 24 months at current pricing. A decisive break below roughly $650 on deteriorating organic growth or margin compression would confirm the overvaluation call; a clean print of another 20%+ earnings year with stable multiples would force a reassessment toward fair value.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
EMCOR shows one of the cleaner quality profiles in E&C: revenue grew from $9.9B (2021) to $17.0B (2025), a ~14% CAGR, while operating margin nearly doubled from 5.4% to 10.1% and net income more than tripled from $384M to $1.27B. FCF scaled from $283M to $1.19B, and OCF/NI at 1.18x with negative accruals (-2% of assets), Beneish M of -2.25, and Altman Z of 7.14 all point to real, cash-backed earnings. There are no mechanical red flags in earnings quality.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Backlog composition and customer concentration (data-center exposure) in latest 10-K
- Segment margin detail - is US Electrical driving the mix shift and is it sustainable?
- Nature of insider sales (10b5-1 plans vs discretionary)
- Acquisition activity and goodwill trends given roll-up model
- Working capital dynamics behind 2025 FCF dip vs net income
Price is $776.62 against a composite FV of $551.34 and a signal-adjusted FV of $658.69 — roughly 18-40% above deserved value depending on how much credit you give current margins. The DCF ($551) and EPV floor ($222) both scream that today's earnings power is cycle-elevated; only the anchored-PE ($881) supports the tape, and that method simply extrapolates the current multiple. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted, but the quality is already fully reflected. The stock is priced for continued data-center/electrification tailwinds, sustained ~10% operating margins, and ongoing accretive M&A - a lot to ask from an E&C business whose historical mid-cycle margin is materially lower. There is no margin of safety here; the bull case is required just to justify the current print. That said, quality, net cash, and buybacks argue against calling it overvalued outright - it is a full-priced good business, not a bubble.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Backlog composition and mix between data-center/electrification vs traditional construction
- Organic vs acquired revenue growth split in latest 10-Q
- Management commentary on margin sustainability and pricing
- Incremental M&A pipeline and multiples paid
- Any signs of project deferrals or bid activity softening
The macro tape is nascent risk-on (VIX ~15, S&P just 1.6% off highs), and at a beta of 1.15 EME participates in that lift without being whipsawed by it. The active narrative is a moderate-intensity, moderate-durability steady-compounder story - not a cult, not a meme, but the kind of quiet framing that lets a name grind higher on momentum without needing catalysts. Momentum is strong-positive (16% CAGR trajectory), which itself is a self-reinforcing sentiment tailwind for a name in this archetype. News flow in the last 72h is favorable and stock-specific: a widely-syndicated 'EME still looks cheap on DCF and earnings' piece is exactly the kind of anchoring narrative bulls need to keep the compounder story alive, and the adjacent Quanta/MasTec coverage keeps the infrastructure/MEP cohort in the spotlight as a place to be. Offsetting: 10y at 4.69% and a market PE near 26 mean any wobble in the tape hits industrial cyclicals like EME harder than defensives, and the narrative has no cult coefficient to defend it if sentiment turns. Net, the pressure leans positive but is not decisive - a tailwind, not a strong one.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the 'premium multiple to peers' framing starts leaking into analyst notes as a downgrade catalyst
- Duration of the risk-on regime beyond the current 1-day stretch
- Any crack in M&A cadence or organic growth prints that would puncture the compounder story
- 10y yield behavior - a move above 4.8-5.0% would pressure the whole industrial-services cohort
The world is rebuilding electrical capacity: AI datacenters, onshored semiconductor and pharma capacity, and grid/power upgrades all convert into exactly the mechanical and electrical scope EMCOR sells. That is a multi-year physical buildout that does not reverse on a single rate print. The offsets are real but second-order: high long rates suppress speculative commercial starts, and skilled trade labor is the true ceiling on how much of the demand the industry can actually bill. EMCOR is not a bet on a new technology — it is a bet that whoever builds the technology needs union pipefitters and switchgear installed, and that scale plus a recurring service base lets EMCOR pick the best of an oversubscribed bid table. The genuine uncertainty is duration and rate-of-change, not direction.
When we made this prediction on Aug 24, 2026, EME was $766.66. We expect it to be $738.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $620.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 24, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips down 25%
adjusted_pe
flips down 25%