Made on
Aug 10, 2026
Price at call
$38.92
6-month call
Bull +11.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$43.20
Great value below
$34.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.0% to $43.20
Predicted High
$43.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$37.60
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 10, 2026 12:55 am
Bull
EQNR trends higher to
$43.20
(+11.0% from $38.92)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisEQNR trades at a deep discount to composite fair value near $70, but negative sentiment on European oil majors and weak quality caps upside. After a strong 47% 6-month run, momentum likely fades near-term before value gravity slowly reasserts, drifting toward the deterministic $43 endpoint.
Invalidated ifA break below $34 (bear scenario) or a sustained oil price collapse would falsify the mild-recovery path; conversely a break above $45 on sector re-rating.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $38.92 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 10, 2026 | — | $38.92 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 24, 2026 | $35.69–$42.15 typical range · internal point $39.10 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | Momentum lingers, risk-on tape supports near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $42.86 on Aug 21, 2026 = +10.1% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 9.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.3%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 10, 2026 | $34.23–$43.61 typical range · internal point $38.40 | — | ±12.0% | 5/10 | Sentiment headwind on European majors weighs modestly |
| What actually happened: closed $45.23 on Sep 9, 2026 = +16.2% vs the call (predicted -1.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 17.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 10, 2026 | $37.60 | — | -3.4% | 5/10 | Peak-demand narrative pressures sector into autumn |
| 3 months | Nov 10, 2026 | $38.80 | — | -0.3% | 4/10 | Value buyers step in near attractive-below zone |
| 4 months | Dec 10, 2026 | $40.50 | — | +4.1% | 4/10 | Discount to fair value begins pulling price up |
| 5 months | Jan 10, 2027 | $42.00 | — | +7.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning and dividend appeal support rebound |
| 6 months | Feb 10, 2027 | $43.20 | — | +11.0% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward deterministic endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $43.43 (+11.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $38.92 |
| Composite fair value | $69.86 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $63.84 |
| DCF fair value | $64.19 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $61.28 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $34.00 |
| Value net score | +25 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -13 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.3% 3m 41.7% 6m 45.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -2.19 3m -1.28 5m -1.59 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 47.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | EQNR-20260810-000802-b12a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-EQNR-20260810-004545-dfd4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-EQNR-20260810-004545-dfd4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-EQNR-20260810-004545-dfd4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-EQNR-20260810-004545-dfd4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | EQNR-20260810-000802-b12a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | EQNR-20260810-000802-b12a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $38.92 | $43.20 | +11.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 11, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.