Made on
Sep 4, 2026
Price at call
$97.78
6-month call
Bull +19.7%
Target by Mar 2027
$117.00
Great value below
$75.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+19.7% to $117.00
Predicted High
$117.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$96.50
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 4, 2026 1:09 pm
Bull
EXE trends higher to
$117.00
(+19.7% from $97.78)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisEXE screens deeply undervalued on fundamentals but sentiment is broken and quality/value composite is negative, so convergence toward fair value will be slow and choppy. Risk-on regime and LNG narrative attempts give a modest tailwind early, but with no earnings catalyst in-window the path likely grinds higher gradually rather than snapping to the deterministic $130 endpoint.
Invalidated ifA close below $85 on gas-weakness or sustained risk-off would break the recovery thesis; conversely a decisive break above $115 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $97.78 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 4, 2026 | — | $97.78 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 18, 2026 | $92.62–$102.94 typical range · internal point $98.90 | — | ±5.3% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime lifts beaten names modestly near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $88.33 on Sep 17, 2026 = -9.7% vs the call (predicted +1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.3%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 4, 2026 | $90.30–$105.26 typical range · internal point $96.50 | — | ±7.6% | 5/10 | Sentiment overhang reasserts, low beta mutes rally |
| 2 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $99.80 | — | +2.1% | 4/10 | Winter gas demand narrative begins reasserting |
| 3 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $104.00 | — | +6.4% | 4/10 | LNG story and value gravity start pulling higher |
| 4 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $108.50 | — | +11.0% | 4/10 | Q4 print anticipation, fifth straight beat likely |
| 5 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $113.00 | — | +15.6% | 3/10 | Post-earnings drift toward deeper fair-value gap |
| 6 months | Mar 4, 2027 | $117.00 | — | +19.7% | 3/10 | Partial convergence toward baseline, sentiment still capping |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $130.20 (+33.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $97.78 |
| Composite fair value | $323.87 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $312.49 |
| DCF fair value | $310.91 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $626.34 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $75.00 |
| Value net score | -22 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -35 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.6% 3m 26.5% 6m 26.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.72 3m -0.22 5m -0.39 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -7.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | EXE-20260904-033002-1302 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXE-20260904-040232-ae19 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXE-20260904-040232-ae19 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXE-20260904-040232-ae19 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXE-20260904-040232-ae19 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | EXE-20260904-033002-1302 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | EXE-20260904-033002-1302 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $97.78 | $117.00 | +19.7% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.